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On Wednesday, it will be once more unto the breach in the war between old-school and new-school MLB awards voters.

The debate over the 2016 American League and National League Cy Young Awards—to be revealed at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network—isn’t as fiery as the last great battle in this war. That was in 2012, when the American League MVP race became an argument with baseball card hero Miguel Cabrera on one side and sabermetrics hero Mike Trout on the other. That one got a little too real.

By default, fewer mental gymnastics are required to define “best pitcher” than “most valuable player.” And with the omission of record-setting Baltimore Orioles closer Zach Britton from the AL finalists, there’s already a sense that new-school thinking gained the upper hand when the votes were collected at the end of the regular season.

Then again, that was the sense when Felix Hernandez claimed the 2010 AL Cy Young Award after winning only 13 games. The Cy Young voting has sent mixed messages ever since.

That could be the case once again. Whether the AL Cy Young should go to Corey Kluber, Rick Porcello or Justin Verlander is a matter of opinion that could tilt in either the old-school or new-school direction. Same goes for the NL Cy Young race between Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer.

This leaves us with only one thing to do in the meantime: break it down.

The American League Race

Let’s talk about wins. Though it’s now widely accepted that they’re an imperfect measure of pitching success, there remains a strong bond between wins leaders and Cy Young Award winners.

Especially in the American League, where the last five winners have been pitchers who have either led the league or tied for the league lead in wins:

This is a good sign for Porcello. The Boston Red Sox right-hander’s 22 wins led not only the AL, but also all of MLB. He further padded his Cy Young resume with a 3.15 ERA (fifth in the AL) and 223 innings (fourth). He also finished eighth in the AL with 189 strikeouts.

All this might have been enough for old-school voters. But in a day and age where cracks are easy to find, new-school voters may have been distracted by the cracks in Porcello‘s 2016 season.

Porcello certainly isn’t guilty of hurting himself. He walked just 1.29 batters per nine innings, which was second only to Josh Tomlin in the AL. But despite his high strikeout total, he landed below the MLB average with his rate of 7.63 strikeouts per nine innings.

He therefore required more help from his defense than the average pitcher. This made it fair game for new-school voters to scrutinize whether Porcello earned the way-better-than-average .269 mark he allowed on balls in play.

And he arguably didn’t.

For instance: With an average exit velocity of 88.9 mph, according to Baseball Savant, batters hit Porcello nearly as hard as they hit the average pitcher (89.1 mph). New-school voters could have seen that (among other things) and concluded luck was a factor in Porcello‘s success.

And this could have tipped the scales in Verlander’s favor.

The Detroit Tigers ace bested Porcello with a 3.04 ERA and 227.2 innings in part because he left little to chance with his 2.25 BB/9 and his 10.04 K/9. That led to an AL-high 254 strikeouts, which were 254 outs his defense didn’t have to get for him.

But for old-school voters, it may have been a deal-breaker that Verlander won six fewer games (16) than Porcello. And if new-school voters took issue with how Porcello managed contact, it was only fair to do the same with Verlander. He may have posted a better average exit velocity (88.4 mph), but he also allowed 30 home runs to Porcello‘s 23.

This brings us to the intriguing wild card in the AL Cy Young race: Kluber.

From a traditional sense, the Cleveland Indians ace’s 18 wins, 3.14 ERA and 227 strikeouts all put him between Porcello and Verlander. Kluber, who also pitched 215 innings, thus offered the best of both their worlds, which could have earned him some compromise votes from old-school voters.

Kluber averaged 9.50 K/9 with 2.39 BB/9, and he surrendered only 22 home runs. He allowed fewer homers than Verlander and Porcello in part because hitters had a difficult time making good contact against him. He finished with the lowest average exit velocity (87.0 mph) of the three.

So while nothing about Kluber‘s season jumps out, there’s not a box on either side of the aisle that he didn’t check. That could be his ticket to a second Cy Young.

However, it’s also easy to imagine a scenario in which the voting bloc was dominated by traditional voters who went for Porcello‘s wins. And it’s easy to imagine a scenario in which new-school voters mostly gravitated to Verlander’s strikeouts rather than his dingers allowed.

What’s the right answer? Trick question. There is no right answer. But we’ll find out what the answer is, and that will shed light on the prevailing wisdom among the AL Cy Young Award voters.

Spoiler: The prevailing wisdom in the NL Cy Young race could be different.

The National League Race

If the AL Cy Young race is to be a referendum on wins, the NL Cy Young race could be a referendum on the other go-to Cy Young stat: ERA.

This is otherwise known as the stat that makes Hendricks loom large. His 2.13 ERA led not only the National League, but also all of MLB. And by a 0.31 margin over Lester at that.

But while that could be enough to deliver him the Cy Young, it might not be. As Zack Greinke in 2015 and Clayton Kershaw in 2012 can vouch, leading the majors in ERA isn’t always enough to earn a Cy Young. An ERA leader usually needs more.

This could be Hendricks’ undoing. He boasts only 16 wins and 190 innings, numbers that may not have impressed old-school voters. Like Porcello, he also didn’t match the MLB average in K/9 en route to his 170 strikeouts, which is yet another unimpressive figure.

New-school Cy Young voters would have known that Hendricks’ real skill is contact management. He blew away both his Cy Young competitors and the average pitcher with just an 87.2 mph average exit velocity.

This is how Hendricks allowed only 15 home runs. But as for the .250 average he allowed on balls in play, new-school voters might have hesitated to assign all the credit for that to Hendricks.

The elephant in the room is the Chicago Cubs defense. As Sam Miller noted at ESPN.com, the Cubs were the best defense at converting batted balls into outs in 34 years. It’s no exaggeration to say Hendricks had the benefit of a historically good defense.

You know who else benefited from that defense? Lester.

In Lester’s, um, defense, he didn’t need to rely on the Chicago defense as much. He beat Hendricks’ 8.05 K/9 with 8.75 K/9. As such, he arguably earned more of his 2.44 ERA than Hendricks did of his 2.13 ERA.

But if it was fair for new-school voters to use the Cubs defense to take credit from Hendricks, it was even more fair to do the same with Lester. With inferior average exit velo (87.8 mph), he didn’t make it as easy for Chicago defenders to catch the ball as Hendricks did.

Of course, Lester would still have a chance at the Cy Young if it was mainly old-school voters who did the voting. They could have acknowledged the excellence of his 2.44 ERA as well as his edge over Hendricks in wins (19), innings (202.2) and strikeouts (197).

Trouble is, it’s Scherzer who was the big winner in those latter three departments.

The Washington Nationals ace had “only” a 2.96 ERA, but he led the NL with 20 wins and 228.1 innings and MLB with 284 strikeouts. He also walked only 2.21 batters per nine innings, putting him ahead of Lester (2.31) but behind Hendricks (2.08).

The stain on Scherzer‘s record is the 31 homers he allowed, which tied for the most in the National League. But those might not have scared away contact management sticklers. Scherzer wasn’t immune to hard contact, but he finished in between Lester and Hendricks in average exit velo (87.7 mph) anyway.

There may be no clear choice in this race, but Scherzer does seem to be the guy who both old-school and new-school voters could agree on. If not, ERA is going to have either a partial (Lester) or a complete (Hendricks) say in the final decision.

Have a headache yet? If so, good. That means you’re prepared to find out what these conversations lead to Wednesday evening.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Before the San Francisco Giants‘ run of even-year championships was killed by their bullpen at the end of 2016, it was wounded by their lack of power.

Their leading home run hitter was Brandon Belt, who cranked just 17 homers. 17. The bullpen shouldn’t be forgotten, but this is also a problem that needs fixing this winter.

It seems the Giants have just the guy in mind.

It’s not Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo or any of the top free-agent sluggers. It’s on the trade market that the Giants have their eyes, specifically on Detroit Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez. This from Jon Morosi on MLB Network: 

The recommended dosage of salt to take this with might be more than a grain. As Morosi went on to note, the talks between the Giants and Tigers occurred at last week’s general managers meetings and “have yet to advance beyond initial stage.”

However, Martinez’s availability is not in question. Tigers general manager Al Avila promised in October (via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press) that “changes are coming” as the club seeks to go from old and expensive to young and cheap. Trading Martinez, 29, would help the process.

Also not in question is why the Giants would be interested in a player like Martinez.

With Angel Pagan off the books, one of the needs the Giants must fill this winter is in left field. That would also be a good place for them to add some power to a lineup that produced only 130 home runs in 2016, third fewest in MLB. Pagan and other Giants left fielders hit only 14 home runs.

Martinez would seem to have just the power bat for the job. After sputtering out of the gate with the Houston Astros in the first three seasons of his career, he changed his swing and has produced a .540 slugging percentage and 83 home runs over the last three seasons.

Martinez peaked with 38 homers in 2015. Remember the last time the Giants had a guy hit that many home runs? It was in 2004. Some guy named Barry Bonds. 

Before we go any further, let’s be careful not to mischaracterize Martinez as a perfect player.

For one, his defense is a question mark at best and a black hole at worst. Defensive runs saved (minus-22) and ultimate zone rate (minus-17.2) rated him as a terrible right fielder in 2016. That’s out of line with how he rated in 2015 but in line with how he’s rated in right field and left field his entire career. 

For two, Martinez has an Achilles’ heel when he’s in the box. He swings and misses a lot, striking out in 26.1 percent of his plate appearances over the last three seasons. So don’t read too much into his .299 average in this span. He’s not as advanced a hitter as that makes him look.

But more so than many other teams—maybe more so than every other team—the Giants are in a position to hide Martinez’s shortcomings.

Pagan aside, the Giants will be returning every key member of a truly great defense in 2017. According to Baseball Prospectus, the only National League team better than the Giants at turning batted balls into outs in 2016 was the Chicago Cubs. They of the historically awesome defense.

The Giants can thus afford to swallow a defensive downgrade in left field if it means getting more offense. And on that front, taking on Martinez would not require an already strikeout-prone lineup to get even worse. The Giants had the lowest strikeout rate in the National League in 2016. They can afford a net loss in that department.

As long as Martinez were to keep the power coming, of course.

This is where I was initially feeling skeptical about their interest in Martinez. The danger of acquiring him, after all, would be paying a heavy price for his power and then watching AT&T Park suffocate it with its sheer AT&T Park-ness.

But courtesy of Baseball Savant, here’s a picture that eases that concern:

These are all the home runs Martinez has hit over the last three years overlaid onto AT&T Park’s dimensions. The only area where he would have lost home runs is in triples alley. And if a player is going to lose home runs anywhere, it may as well be in a place that’s called “triples alley” for a reason.

It’s not surprising Martinez’s recent dinger prowess passes the AT&T Park test. He doesn’t get cheated. Over the past three seasons, only two players have made hard contact at a higher rate:

1. David Ortiz: 44.2%
2. Giancarlo Stanton: 43.3%
3. J.D. Martinez: 42.4%

The obligatory buzzkill is the Giants can’t have Martinez for free. But with just one year left on his contract, he’s not the kind of guy who’s going to require some kind of massive commitment. And with an $11.75 million salary headed his way, he’s not grossly underpaid either.

As such, the Giants shouldn’t have to send their entire farm system to the Tigers to get their man. Jason Beck of MLB.com floated the possibility of the Tigers getting one of the Giants’ top outfield prospects (Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker, Austin Slater) and/or a young pitcher (Tyler Beede).

As much as the Giants would probably prefer to hang on to their young talent, they’re in no position to get stubborn.

With Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto leading their rotation and Buster Posey, Belt and Hunter Pence leading their lineup, the Giants are very much in win-now mode. They’re precisely the kind of team that should be interested in surrendering prospects for an immediate upgrade. And if they get Martinez, they would then only need to go shopping for bullpen arms on an offseason market that has plenty of them.

Of course, they don’t necessarily need to get Martinez first. But at some point, the Giants should push their talks with the Tigers beyond the “initial stage.”

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

There’s a one-in-three chance Justin Verlander will win the American League Cy Young Award on Wednesday. Two things will happen if he does.

One: A trophy case that already features a Cy Young alongside a Rookie of the Year Award and a Most Valuable Player Award will look even better. Two: His trade value, which skyrocketed in 2016, will inch even higher.

Thing No. 2 is relevant in light of current events in the Detroit Tigers front office. Following the Tigers’ second straight postseasonless campaign, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney warned in October that Detroit would be in a trading mood this winter.

In recent days, general manager Al Avila has been busy saying “Yup” to every news outlet within earshot.

“Our organization has been working well over its means for several years, for our market size, if you compare our payroll with the rest of baseball,” Avila told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, referencing a payroll that has ballooned from under $100 million in 2007 to $198.6 million on Opening Day in 2016.

“It’s gotten to the point, quite frankly, where it can’t continue to go up and up and up,” Avila continued. “At what point do you say, ‘Enough?’ We have to start making some adjustments. Whether they’re subtle or bigger depends on what teams out there are looking for and how some of our guys may fit them.”

The road ahead for the Tigers involves getting younger and cheaper. They can’t do this by waiting on young talent that’s already in place. The Tigers graduated AL Rookie of the Year finalist Michael Fulmer to the majors in 2016, but he was the lone standout in a farm system that Baseball America had ranked No. 26 in MLB going into the year.

Detroit’s first step forward must involve trimming some old and expensive fat. Hence why every big-money Tigers star is rumored to be available, though Verlander and Miguel Cabrera carry the most intrigue.

One is a two-time MVP and lifetime .321 hitter who still has a strong case for the Best Hitter in Baseball crown. The other is a decorated ace who put two injury-marred seasons in 2014 and 2015 in the rearview mirror with a return to form in 2016. Verlander put up a 3.04 ERA in 227.2 innings and led the AL in strikeouts (254) and WHIP (1.00).

When it comes to trade value, however, one of these things is not like the other.

Cabrera is awfully good, but he’s also 33 years old with seven years and $220 million remaining on his contract. In early November, Craig Edwards of FanGraphs found that Cabrera isn’t likely to offer any excess value beyond that. Detroit may therefore have to eat some of his contract in order to flip him for young talent.

Verlander is in a different boat. He’s owed a relatively reasonable $84 million over the next three seasons, and Edwards projected him to provide excess value on top of that. Hypothetically, the Tigers should be able to move his entire contract and get some young talent in return.

In a normal offseason, the availability of aces on the open market would be a threat to push back against Verlander’s trade value.

But this is no normal offseason. The best free-agent starting pitcher is Rich Hill, who is equal parts talented and fragile. After him, it’s a dark and decrepit landscape that, thanks to a surprise twist, doesn’t even include Jeremy Hellickson anymore, with the Philadelphia Phillies’ announcement he accepted their qualifying offer.

As such, the only force that could lower Verlander’s trade value is pessimism about whether he has more seasons like 2016 in him. He is also 33, after all. One great season at this point in his career arguably wasn’t enough to undo the disappointment of the prior two seasons, in which he had a 4.08 ERA in 52 starts.

Or, interested parties will be optimistic—as they should be in this case.

Verlander was successful in 2016 because he was overpowering. He went from striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings in 2014-15 to striking out 10.0 batters per nine innings in 2016.

What’s more, his average fastball was 93.5 mph—short of his 95.6 mph peak in 2009, sure, but better than his 92.3 mph average in 2014 and his 92.8 mph average in 2015.

And per Brooks Baseball, the revival of Verlander’s velocity started strong and got even better throughout the year:

After he struggled to get back to full strength in 2014 following offseason core muscle surgery and then battled an oblique injury at the outset of 2015, this was a good sign that Verlander’s previous issues had less to do with age and more to do with physical ailments that are now behind him.

“All of a sudden, it becomes fun again,” the 6’5″ right-hander told Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports in September. “I was allowed to compete with the other team as opposed to competing against myself.”

Of course, optimism about Verlander’s velocity can only be so ironclad. At his age, the possibility that it could decline again can’t be ignored.

But even if it does, two things could ensure his dominance doesn’t also diminish: spin and location.

According to Baseball Savant, Verlander threw a higher percentage of high fastballs in 2016 than he had since 2009. Batters hit just .145 against them. That’s related to how, in addition to improved velocity, his fastball had the highest spin rate of any four-seamer thrown by all pitchers with at least 2,000 pitches.

However, this was only Verlander doubling down on a trend he started with inferior velocity the previous year. He held hitters to a .146 average on high heat in 2015, with one factor being that there was little difference in the spin rates of Verlander’s 2016 fastball and his 2015 fastball:

• 2016: 2,565 RPM
• 2015: 2,500 RPM

In January, Mike Petriello of MLB.com noted that Verlander wasn’t the first pitcher to succeed with high-spin heaters up in the zone. That’s been Chris Young’s weapon of choice his whole career. And no matter how much Verlander’s velocity may decline over the next three years, it’s not likely to get to a point where it matches Young’s mid- to high 80s “heat.”

Thus, Verlander’s 2016 wasn’t just a return to form. It was a return to form with a good fail-safe in the event he can’t maintain that form going forward.

This is not to characterize him as the only Detroit star who’s worth monitoring as the rumor mill continues to go round and round. Cabrera shouldn’t be ignored, and Ian Kinsler and J.D. Martinez may be most likely to be moved.

But in Verlander, the Tigers have just the thing that can serve both their needs and the market’s needs: a big-name ace who’s worth a high asking price.

Let the bidding begin.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Payroll and contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When you’re also up for the Most Valuable Player Award, winning Rookie of the Year is a mere formality.

Still, Corey Seager will take it.

And if you’re just now joining us, he did. When the results of the National League Rookie of the Year voting were announced on MLB Network on Monday evening, the 22-year-old shortstop came away as a unanimous winner over Los Angeles Dodgers teammate Kenta Maeda and Washington Nationals center fielder Trea Turner.

Seager is the first Dodger to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award since Todd Hollandsworth made it five straight for the organization back in 1996. Cue him being over the proverbial moon.

“I’m excited and overwhelmed right now,” Seager said, via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. “It’s a distinguished award. Congratulations to the other two, to Trea and Kenta. It’s awesome to be nominated, really exciting to win. I don’t have the words for it, really.”

Since Seager doesn’t have the words to describe his win, we’ll pick one for him: inevitable.

I don’t know if we’ll ever see a young player take a path to the Rookie of the Year Award as straight as the one Kris Bryant walked. He went from being Baseball America‘s College Player of the Year in 2013 to the Minor League Player of the Year in 2014 to the unanimous NL Rookie of the Year in 2015.

But as far as paths go, the one Seager took to his Rookie of the Year Award was the next best thing.

He started his pro career as the No. 18 pick in the 2012 draft. A year later, he was a top-100 prospect going into the 2014 season. Then he was a top-10 prospect going into 2015. Coming into this season, he was ranked as the No. 1 prospect in Major League Baseball by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com and ESPN.com.

It was all about the bat. By the time Seager broke into the majors late in 2015, he was a .307 hitter with an .891 OPS in the minors. He lived up to that and then some, hitting .337 with a .986 OPS with the Dodgers in a 27-game sample size that was small enough to keep his rookie status intact.

That set a high bar for Seager in his first full major league season in 2016. He cleared it by having the best offensive season for a rookie shortstop in history.

That’s not so much reflected in his .308/.365/.512 slash line, nor in his 26 home runs. It’s more so reflected in his adjusted OPS+ of 137, which was the best ever for a rookie shortstop with at least 300 plate appearances.

Then there’s his total offensive value, which snapped a rookie shortstop record set over 100 years ago:

None of us can say we weren’t warned that Seager was capable of this. The specific words varied, but every scouting report on him told tales of a hitter who was gifted in every way.

For example, here’s what Keith Law put in his write-up at ESPN.com:

Seager, the younger brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle, has electric hands at the plate and does everything very easily — his swing, hip rotation and power look effortless — but it’s his approach that makes him the best prospect in baseball. Seager’s pitch recognition is advanced way beyond his years, and you’ll see him make adjustments within at-bats that even veterans don’t make. He’s better than most players his age at adjusting to a pitch he didn’t expect and does very well covering the outer half without creating a hole on the inner third.

Seager lived up to all this. Per Brooks Baseball, he hit no worse than .215 against any particular pitch. He also finished with red-hot spots in all but one area of the strike zone.

And he didn’t get by simply by hitting it where they weren’t. According to Baseball Savant, Seager averaged 91.5 mph on his batted balls, easily topping the league average of 89.1 mph. He hit 212 balls at 95 mph or better, which was just three fewer than the majors’ OPS leader, David Ortiz.

As further proof of Seager’s hitting mastery, look how he spread those rockets around:

The one thing the prospect gurus weren’t sold on coming into the year was Seager’s defense. There were concerns that he was too big to play the position and that if the Dodgers wanted his bat in the lineup, they would have to live with a drag on their overall ability to field the ball.

Not true, as it turned out. According to advanced metrics, Seager’s defense was somewhere between brilliant (10.6 ultimate zone rating) and fine (zero defensive runs saved).

That this led to Seager winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award is up there with Mike Trout’s American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2012 as among the least surprising wins ever.

It was obvious when Seager went into the All-Star break with an .879 OPS and 17 homers that he was the man to beat for the award. His cool-down didn’t come until he hit .205 with a .619 OPS in the postseason. By then, the Rookie of the Year votes were already in the bag.

Now the only question is if the votes that went into the National League MVP bag will produce the same result when the announcement is made Thursday. Seager’s up against Bryant, a fellow phenom, and Daniel Murphy, a sweet-swinging veteran. There’s less of a clear choice in this race, but the favorite does appear to be Bryant rather than Seager.

But if Seager doesn’t follow his Rookie of the Year Award with an MVP Award on Thursday, it’ll likely just be a matter of time before he does.

Call it an educated hunch. If he’s already an MVP-caliber player as a 22-year-old rookie, becoming even more of an MVP-caliber player in the future doesn’t seem like too much to ask.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Over the past week, Bleacher Report has been going position by position and rounding up the top 100 players available in free agency and trades in the 2016-2017 MLB offseason.

Now it’s time to put them all in one basket.

Each player was subjected to a scoring system that weighed his desirability in terms of talent, durability and value. Position players and starting pitchers could get as many as 100 points. Relief pitchers could get as many as 85 points.

For more on how the system worked, you can check out any of the individual position slideshows:

• Top 15 Corner Infielders
• Top 10 Catchers
• Top 15 Middle Infielders
• Top 25 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Relief Pitchers
• Top 20 Outfielders

Some things have required updating since the publications of the individual positional rankings. New players have joined the list. Others have had their situations updated. But on the whole, we’re mostly here to present a list of 100 players to keep an eye on this winter.

Along the way, you’ll find links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant and StatCorner.

So take it away.

Begin Slideshow

Remember when Sonny Gray seemed to have one foot in an Oakland A’s uniform and one foot on the trading block? Those were interesting times.

Now they may be ready for a comeback.

No two Major League Baseball offseasons are exactly alike, but a prevailing theme through all of them is the widespread need for starting pitching. In a related story, another prevailing theme are the showers of cash that fall on the best free-agent aces.

The 2016-17 offseason, however, presents a conundrum: There are no aces on the open market.

Rich Hill is good, but also older and not very durable. After him, the best free-agent pitcher is Jeremy Hellickson. After him…Ivan Nova? Jason Hammel? Bartolo Colon? I mean, you can take your pick.

And so, teams in the market for an ace must turn to the trade market. The trade winds are blowing around names like Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and Chris Archer. All good pitchers! Certainly better than any on the open market, anyway.

But therein lies another conundrum. The teams that employ those pitchers know they have key pieces of supply in a world flooded with demand. They can jack up the sticker prices, which could force suitors toward more affordable options.

Which brings us to Gray.

There’s a good reason Gray’s name doesn’t loom as large on the trade market. He put up a 3.08 ERA in 219 innings in 2014 and then finished third in the American League Cy Young voting after posting a 2.73 ERA in 208 innings in 2015. But in 2016, he pitched just 117 innings in 22 starts and watched his ERA balloon to an ugly 5.69.

Nonetheless, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com has it on good authority that the A’s are ready to field some calls on their 27-year-old right-hander. 

“Sonny has been a popular trade conversation for the last couple of years, so it won’t be new,” A’s general manager David Forst said at the GM meetings in Scottsdale. “Certainly it’s expected, and we have to be open to anything at this point considering where we are and how much work we have to do to catch up with the teams at the top of our division. I can’t speak to how aggressive teams will be or when the calls will come in, but we have to be open to that conversation.”

When pressed, he added: “It’s nice to have assets people want.”

Given the nature of the A’s finances, it’s relevant that Gray will stop being cheap in 2017. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors projects his salary will go from $528,000 to $3.7 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Gray’s arbitration eligibility also means his free agency is now there on the horizon, just three years away. Coming off a 93-loss season in 2016, the A’s are facing a rebuilding stretch that may not be over by then. Trading him for pieces that could boost said rebuild could be their best play.

The deflation of Gray’s value in 2016 should be a deal-breaker, but the lack of options on the open market and the gigantic price tags of alternative trade options are just the things to cancel that out. Rather than a broken pitcher to stay away from, teams may be compelled to look at Gray as a once-great pitcher who could be remade.

Gray is still in his prime years, and one positive sign from his rotten 2016 is that he wasn’t plagued by bad stuff. He lost only 0.2 miles per hour off his fastball from 2015, sitting at 92.7 mph. And according to Baseball Savant, he experienced a significant increase in spin rate.

Gray’s real problem? Command.

He went from 2.6 walks per nine innings in 2015 to 3.2 walks per nine innings in 2016. One thing Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs noticed early on is that Gray wasn’t able to command his breaking stuff. He was throwing too many non-competitive curveballs and sliders way down below the strike zone. That would lead to walks.

That also made it easier for hitters to sit fastball. Gray could find the zone with those, but too often found the wrong parts of it. Per Brooks Baseball, he threw more four-seamers and sinkers right down the middle:

Hitters responded accordingly. They hit .310 against Gray’s four-seamer and .380 against his sinker. This after hitting .262 and .270 against them the prior season.

The elephants in the room are the injuries Gray suffered. He went on the disabled list with a bad shoulder in May and with a bad forearm in August. 

The shoulder injury is especially alarming when paired with what was going on with Gray’s release point earlier in the year. It was down from where it had been throughout 2015. That won’t go unnoticed or unworried about by potential suitors.

But the silver lining also isn’t hard to spot. Albeit in limited exposure, Gray’s release point did move back up toward the end of the year. That’s a sign he’s not necessarily damaged goods, and that his struggles in 2016 may have been due to a mere mechanical funk.

Such things can be fixed. And in this case, fixing such a thing could turn Gray back into what he was in 2014 and 2015: one of the best pitchers in baseball.

What it would cost to take this chance won’t be cheap. The A’s can demand one or two elite prospects or perhaps some established major league talent with controllability and untapped upside.

However, that doesn’t sound so bad compared to what it would take to land one of the other guys.

Sale ($38 million through 2019) and Archer ($39 million through 2021) have value even beyond what’s left on their contracts. That would have to be matched by a bucket of top prospects in a trade.

Verlander and Greinke don’t have that kind of excess value on top of their remaining contracts. But if a team deals for either one, it would have to take on all or most of the $84 million (or $106 million if his 2020 option vests) owed to Verlander or the $172.5 million owed to Greinke.

Since going home without an ace isn’t an option, the choice before teams is to either pay a huge price for a sure thing or a lesser price for a lottery ticket. Gray’s the latter, and he could be a winner.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Bleacher Report’s stroll through the top 100 players available in the 2016-17 MLB offseason now heads to the outfield.

We have 20 outfielders to get to. Most are part of a deep collection of quality free agents. Others are trade candidates pulled from rumors and/or plausible speculation. They’re ranked according to how they fared in the following scoring system:

• Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook of their skills going forward. Think of 35 out of 70 as a league-average player and 70 out of 70 as a Mike Trout-like talent.
• Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection on how guys’ bodies will hold up. Think of 10 out of 20 as signaling a toss-up as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 indicating no concerns whatsoever. To keep things fair, we’ll allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
• Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it’s going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he’d be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a megabust and 10 being a megasteal.

In the event of ties, the nod will be given to the player we’d rather sign or trade for.

Along the way, you’ll find links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant.

Now then, let’s take it away.

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After looking at the top 25 starting pitchers, Bleacher Report’s look at the top 100 players available in the 2016-17 offseason now moves to the bullpen.

We’ll look at 15 relief pitchers who are either free agents or trade candidates pulled from rumors and/or plausible speculation. Since relievers have limited roles, their scoring system adds up to 85 possible points rather than the usual 100.

• Talent Outlook: Out of 60. The idea is to look at how each pitcher has performed and how his performance will or won’t change in the future. Think of a score of 30 out of 60 as a league-average reliever, with 60 out of 60 essentially being Andrew Miller.

• Durability Outlook: Out of 15. This is a look at how durable guys are going to be based on their past workloads and injury histories. Think of 15 out of 15 as no concern whatsoever, whereas a seven or eight out of 15 says a healthy future is a toss-up. 

• Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is a discussion about the contracts or trade packages guys are going to command and about whether they could justify it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero out of 10 being a megabust and 10 out of 10 being a megasteal.

In the event of ties, the nod will be given to the player we’d rather sign or trade for.

Along the way, you’ll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant. 

Step into the box whenever you’re ready.

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The Chicago Cubs won the World Series last week. Thus crumbled a championship drought that had lasted for 108 years. That’s a glimmer of hope for other long-suffering MLB franchises if there ever were one.

Now all they need is for some damn fool to project when that glimmer of hope might pay off. I guess that’s me.

Most teams in Major League Baseball haven’t won the World Series in a while. The ones that are going to have their presents and futures sized up by me are the ones that have gone at least three decades without a title. The list begins with the New York Mets, suffering since 1986, and ends with the Cleveland Indians, suffering since 1948.

No promises will be given as to the exact year each team will win the World Series. It’s easy to see where teams are now, but I can only guess how they’re going to come together in the future. So instead, we’ll deal in “As Soon As” and “No Sooner Than” predictions.

Now then, let’s take it away.

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Bleacher Report’s rundown of the top 100 players available in the 2016-17 MLB offseason now moves to the mound.

Up first are the top 25 starting pitchers who are either free agents or trade candidates pulled from rumors and/or plausible speculation. With very little starting talent available in free agency this winter, be warned that this list is especially heavy with trade candidates.

The players are ranked according to how they fared in the following scoring system:

• Talent Outlook: Out of 70. The idea is to look at how each pitcher has performed and how his performance will or won’t change in the future. Think of a score of 35 out of 70 as a league-average pitcher, with 70 out of 70 essentially being Clayton Kershaw.

• Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is a look at how durable guys are going to be based on their past workloads and injury histories. Think of 20 out of 20 as no concern whatsoever, whereas 10 out of 20 says a healthy future is a toss-up. Also, we’ll keep things fair by only allowing pitchers who will require short-term commitments a maximum of 15 points.

• Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is a discussion about the contracts or trade packages guys are going to command and about whether they could justify it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero out of 10 being a megabust and 10 out of 10 being a megasteal.

In the event of ties, the nod goes to the player we’d rather sign or trade for.

Along the way, you’ll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant. 

Now then, let’s take it away.

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