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After checking in on catchers and corner infielders, Bleacher Report’s review of the top 100 players available in the 2016-17 MLB offseason now moves to the middle of the infield.

We have 15 middle infielders who are either free agents or trade targets pulled from rumors and/or plausible speculation. They’re ranked based on how they fared in the following scoring system:

• Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook of their skills going forward. Think of 35 out of 70 as a league-average player and 70 out of 70 as a Mike Trout-like talent.
• Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection for how guys’ bodies will hold up. Think of 10 out of 20 as signaling a toss-up as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 indicating no concerns whatsoever. To keep things fair, we’ll allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
• Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it’s going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he’d be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a megabust and 10 being a megasteal.

In the event of ties, the nod will be given to the player we’d rather sign or trade for.

Along the way, you’ll find links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant. 

Now that you know everything you need to know, it’s time to take it away.

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Bleacher Report’s look at the top 100 players available for the 2016-2017 MLB offseason got started with the top 15 corner infielders. Now come the top 10 catchers.

These 10 catchers are either free agents or trade targets pulled from rumors and/or plausible speculation. They’re ranked based on how they fared in the following scoring system:

• Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook of their skills going forward. Think of 35 out of 70 as a league-average player and 70 out of 70 as a Mike Trout-like talent.
• Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection for how guys’ bodies will hold up. Think of 10 out of 20 as signaling a toss-up as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 indicating no concerns whatsoever. To keep things fair, we’ll allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
• Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it’s going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he’d be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a megabust and 10 being a megasteal.

In the event of ties, the nod will be given to the player we’d rather sign or trade for.

Along the way, you’ll find links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant and StatCorner.

Now that you know everything you need to know, it’s time to take it away.

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Now that everyone has said goodbye to the World Series and the 2016 Major League Baseball season, it’s time to say hello to MLB‘s Hot Stove season.

‘Tis the season when dozens of players pack their bags and get moving after signing on the dotted line or learning they’ve been traded. We’re here to narrow down the top 100 players that could be moved before the 2017 season.

We’ll get started with a look at the top 15 corner infielders who are entering the winter either as free agents or as trade targets according to the latest rumors and/or plausible speculation. The players are ranked based on how they fared in the following scoring system:

• Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook of their skills going forward. Think of 35 out of 70 as a league-average player and 70 out of 70 as a Mike Trout-like talent.
• Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection for how guys’ bodies will hold up. Think of 10 out of 20 as signaling a toss-up as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 indicating no concerns whatsoever. To keep things fair, we’ll allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
• Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it’s going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he’d be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a megabust and 10 being a megasteal.

Just as a heads-up: Designated hitters are included in this particular list. And in the event of ties, the nod will be given to the player we’d rather sign or trade for.

Along the way, you’ll find links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant. 

Now that you know everything you need to know, it’s time to take it away.

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The World Series is over. Now begins the long, dark, cold road to spring training.

Better fire up the hot stove.

No Major League Baseball will be played in the next few months, but plenty of new homes will be found for free agents and trade targets. ‘Tis the season for wheeling and dealing.

There’s no time like the present to preview it all. Ahead is a breakdown of the best bargain bin, second-level and top-level free agents, as well as a look at the top trade candidates. At the end is a look at which teams figure to be the most active in the offseason market.

Ready? Let’s get to it.

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The Chicago Cubs have clawed back from the brink of elimination and are now one win away from their first World Series title in 108 years.

So, of course they’re the ones everyone is second-guessing at the moment.

After beating the Cleveland Indians in a 3-2 nail-biter at Wrigley Field in Game 5, the Cubs took control of Game 6 at Progressive Field with seven early runs en route to a 9-3 romp.

Like that, Cleveland’s 3-1 series lead is gone. All the Cubs need to complete their comeback is a few runs and 27 outs in Game 7 on Wednesday.

That leads us to the big question: How many of those outs can Aroldis Chapman get?

The answer might have been “As many as Joe Maddon asks him to get, duh” if Chicago’s manager had taken his club’s big lead in Game 6 as an excuse to rest his fire-balling closer. After all, Chapman was only a day removed from throwing 42 pitches and getting eight outs in Game 5.

Instead, Maddon brought Chapman in after Mike Montgomery had allowed two runners to reach in the seventh inning. He kept him in until a leadoff walk in the ninth inning. He threw another 20 pitches.

Maddon was asked to explain himself afterward. Here’s the key part of his answer (via MLB.com):

I mean, seventh inning there because they came up, the middle of the batting order was coming up, [Francisco] Lindor, [Mike] Napoli, [Jose] Ramirez possibly, all that stuff. So I thought the game could have been lost right there if we did not take care of it properly. Also there was a threat that we would score more runs, which we did, and just did not have enough time to get [Pedro Strop] warmed up after the two-run home run by [Anthony] Rizzo.

In short, Chapman came into the game to make sure the heart of Cleveland’s lineup didn’t make something of the rally that was brewing and stayed in the game because there hadn’t been enough time to adjust to the team’s recently increased lead.

The important context that’s missing is the Cubs already had a 7-2 lead before Rizzo put the game on ice with his two-run blast in the ninth. Cleveland’s rally was also with two outs, so the game was hardly hanging in the balance.

In fact, the win expectancy chart from FanGraphs shows the Cubs had about a 97 percent chance of winning even before Chapman entered the game:

On one hand, going to Chapman was Maddon’s abiding by the notion that closers shouldn’t be restricted to the last three outs. On the other hand, bringing in Chapman in that situation was like using a Howitzer to take out a bothersome house fly.

It was plausible at the time that Maddon only meant to use Chapman to get Lindor and would then turn the game over to Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon or whoever to get the last six outs. That seemed even more likely after Chapman came up favoring his right leg after beating—as instant replay would confirm—Lindor to the first-base bag on a grounder to Rizzo. The rally had been stifled, but Chapman’s limp seemed like a warning to Maddon not to tempt fate.

But Maddon wasn’t messing around. Chapman came back out for the eighth, and then there he was in the ninth.

Let’s get to the silver lining of all this: Just because Chapman pitched in Game 6 doesn’t mean he can’t pitch in Game 7. He will be available.

And for what it’s worth, that scare around the first-base bag might not be a clear and present danger. The man himself told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune he feels just fine:

So no, Game 7 is not over before it’s even begun just because Chapman pitched in Game 6. You know, just in case any of you straw men out there were actually thinking that.

The real fear, though, is the Cubs’ chances of winning Game 7 have been downgraded after Chapman’s outing in Game 6.

Had Maddon not used Chapman at all or maybe just used him to shut down that seventh-inning rally, he would have gotten plenty of rest following his taxing outing in Game 5. That might have allowed him to come in and get as many as eight outs again in Game 7.

But now, you wonder.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports noted on Twitter that Chapman had only one bad outing in six tries this season the day after throwing 20-plus pitches in a game. However, one out of six is a lot less comforting in a World Series setting than in the regular season.

That 42-pitch effort in Game 5 also looms. That’s one of only three times Chapman has crossed the 40-pitch threshold.

He got two days of rest after one of them in September 2015 when he was with the Cincinnati Reds. That may have been because manager Bryan Price remembered when he didn’t let Chapman rest the day after a 40-pitch appearance in July and how three days later he allowed three hits and two walks in one inning.

This is imperfect precedent for the situation Chapman is in now. But it’s enough to raise questions about how many pitches he would have in him for Game 7 even on two healthy legs. And despite Chapman’s insistence on 100 percent health, any lingering soreness in his right leg Wednesday could be an issue.

Point being: Although Maddon will no doubt try to get two or three good innings out of Chapman anyway, he might not have two or three good innings to give.

Unlike in Game 6, the Cubs may not have the luxury of a big lead this time.

They’ll be facing Cleveland ace/possible T-800 from the future Corey Kluber. All he’s done in this series is allow one run in 12 innings, with 15 strikeouts and one walk. And while Maddon tasked Chapman with getting more than three outs for the second time in three days, Cleveland manager Terry Francona was resting his own relief aces: Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.

This doesn’t necessarily mean Cleveland has the edge. It depends on who you ask. The Indians are favored at FiveThirtyEight. The Cubs are favored at FanGraphs. It’s almost as if Game 7 is a would-be classic with all sorts of ins, outs and what-have-yous.

But when Game 7 begins, there may as well be a clock counting down to Chapman Time. We’re going to find out if all this hand-wringing is much ado about nothing or an excuse to say “I told you so.”

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

If the Chicago Cubs want to be a team of destiny, they better come up with a miracle.

If they don’t, a season in which they won 103 games on their way to their first World Series since 1945 could be over as soon as Sunday. The Cleveland Indians lead the series three games to one.

If the advantage feels even bigger than that, it may be because the latest entry in this Fall Classic was a thumping that only Cleveland fans had an easy time watching.

After winning a 1-0 squeaker in Game 4 on Friday, the Indians took Game 5 on Saturday by a 7-2 final. The Cubs could once again do nothing against Corey Kluber, who regressed to only six one-run innings from his six shutout innings in Game 1. John Lackey and a host of Chicago relievers served up 10 hits. Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis sent two of those into the Wrigley Field bleachers.

And so, it’s down to this for the Cubs: One more loss, and their trip to the World Series will have proved powerless to stop their championship drought from turning 109 years old.

Oh, there are silver linings, of course.

There are the pitching matchups, for one. Jon Lester will get the ball against Trevor Bauer, who will be on three days’ rest, in Game 5. That’s a mismatch if there ever was one.

“To have a guy that’s [a] been-there, done-that kind of a guy, and been very successful, been a World Series champion, he knows what the feeling is like, he knows what it takes,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon said, via Jamal Collier of MLB.com. “It’s definitely comforting to the rest of the group for [Sunday].”

If there’s a Game 6, there will be another mismatch in Jake Arrieta against Josh Tomlin on short rest. If there’s a Game 7, major league ERA leader Kyle Hendricks will go against Kluber, who will be making his second straight start on short rest.

On the other side of the ball, Chicago’s vaunted offense showed more life in Game 4 than the box score suggested.

Dexter Fowler finally got the Cubs’ first home run of the series with his solo dinger off the previously untouchable Andrew Miller, but that could have been the team’s third home run of the night under better conditions. Ben Zobrist and Anthony Rizzo crushed balls that got knocked down by the wind.

And if there is indeed a Game 6, the Cubs know Kyle Schwarber will return to the lineup, as the designated hitter will be re-introduced to the series back at Progressive Field. He was Chicago’s best hitter in the first two games.

There are, however, two things standing in the way of the miracle the Cubs need: history and a team that is playing better baseball.

The easy reference to make in support of Chicago is to the last time a team from Cleveland was involved in a championship series with a 3-1 deficit. Just check Twitter. I’ll wait.

Easy jokes aside, though, 3-1 deficits are no laughing matter in the World Series. There have been 46 teams that have fallen behind 3-1. Only six of them have come back to win.

As Mike Puma of the New York Post noted, the last of those comebacks was three decades ago:

For the Cubs to break the streak, they need to figure out an Indians team that already has them figured out.

It’s not just the wind that’s keeping Chicago from living up to its reputation as one of baseball’s best power-hitting teams. Cleveland pitchers know that hitters have a hard time smacking breaking balls over the fence. Per Baseball Savant, they’ve gone from throwing 23.9 percent breaking balls in the regular season to 38 percent in the postseason. Cubs hitters have had no answer for that.

In what seems to be an offshoot of its struggles to hit the ball over the fence, Chicago has also lost its trademark discipline. Baseball Savant’s figures had it swinging outside the zone only 18.9 percent of the time in the regular season. That number is up to 22.4 percent in the World Series.

Cue Maddon saying this in his postgame press conference Saturday, via MLB.com: “We just need that offensive epiphany somehow to get us pushing in the right direction.”

As Cubs hitters struggle to be themselves, Indians hitters have largely been doing just fine.

They have a .248 team average to Chicago’s .204 and are out-homering the Cubs four to one. They’re taking more disciplined at-bats and benefiting from that with better contact, holding the average exit velocity advantage at 91.1 mph to 86.8 mph.

It helps that manager Terry Francona is pushing all the right buttons. Pinch-hitting Coco Crisp in Game 3 resulted in a game-winning RBI single. Santana rewarded Francona for starting him over Mike Napoli in Game 4 by hitting a game-tying home run.

Meanwhile, Francona’s button-pushing is another thing that’s made life difficult for Cubs hitters.

Whereas Maddon has leaned on relievers not named Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon or Aroldis Chapman, Francona has continued to ride Miller and Cody Allen as much as he can. When he hasn’t used them, he’s pushed the right buttons anyway. Take out Fowler’s dinger off Miller, and Zach McAllister is the only Cleveland reliever to allow an earned run in this series.

“I think our guys have done terrific,” Francona said after Game 4, via MLB.com. “But I think the people that are surprised don’t know our pitchers very well.”

All this is the long way of telling a shorter story. What the Indians are doing to the Cubs is basically the same thing they did to the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays en route to the World Series. That led to seven wins in eight games. Lo and behold, more of the same has them one win from snapping a World Series drought that’s only 40 years younger than Chicago’s.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the odds the Cubs will reverse Cleveland’s stranglehold over this postseason stand at just 15 percent. That number is one of two things.

One: The start of a storybook comeback 108 years in the making—one that will be defined by Chicago taking advantage of favorable pitching matchups and finally finding its offense.

Or two: just another step down toward zero.

Anticlimactic? Maybe. But if it’s a team of destiny you want to see, you’re better off looking at the one from Cleveland.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

A question for the Cleveland Indians: You didn’t think it was going to be that easy, did you?

Actually, it’s understandable if they thought winning their first World Series since 1948 would be that easy. After all, the Indians encountered little resistance in winning seven of eight games against the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays to get to the World Series. When they won Game 1 on Tuesday, they put themselves on a path that usually leads to victory.

But that path has hit a bump, and the territory immediately beyond is rougher than any the Indians have encountered this October.

The Chicago Cubs are on the board. After going silent at the hands of Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen in a 6-0 loss in Game 1, the Cubs broke out their bats against Trevor Bauer and the supporting cast of Cleveland’s pitching staff in Game 2 and let Jake Arrieta and their bullpen do the rest.

It took over four hours, but the Cubs left Progressive Field on Wednesday with a 5-1 win that tied the series.

The series resumes with Game 3 at Wrigley Field at 8 p.m. ET on Friday. That gives the Indians a day to assess their standing.

It could be worse. Per ESPN Stats & Info, teams that have won the first game in the World Series have gone on to win the whole thing 24 times in the last 28 series.

But things could also be better. The latest odds at FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight give the Cubs a 61-62 percent chance to win the series. Looking at how things are shaping up heading back to Chicago, that seems accurate.

After the Indians raised hell in Game 1, Game 2 was a reminder of why the Cubs won 103 games in the regular season. In particular, they made a statement with an offensive attack so relentless that even Tribe manager Terry Francona knows it probably should have produced more than five runs.

“Yeah, we gave up nine hits, eight walks, two errors, and we only gave up five runs,” he said in his postgame presser, via MLB.com. “We’re probably pretty fortunate because there was traffic all night. For us to win, we generally need to play a clean game, and we didn’t do that.”

It didn’t help that Arrieta gave the Tribe little room for error when he had the ball. After Jon Lester struggled in Game 1, Arrieta proved how absurd it is that he’s not the No. 1 starter in Chicago’s rotation by taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning before yielding to Mike Montgomery and Aroldis Chapman.

The one run the Indians scored in Game 2 came home on a wild pitch. This is after two runs came home in Game 1 on an infield trickler and a hit-by-pitch. So outside of Roberto Perez’s two home runs in Game 1, Cleveland’s offense has been generally ineffective in this series.

Offense won’t get easier to find after the move to the National League theater of this conflict. The loss of the designated hitter takes away Francona’s usual spot for Carlos Santana. That will limit one of Cleveland’s best hitters to a pinch-hitting role.

In theory, the trade-off will be the newly revived Kyle Schwarber being moved to Chicago’s bench. But per Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, Cubs skipper Joe Maddon hasn’t ruled out testing Schwarber’s surgically repaired left knee with outfield duty:

This could create even more pressure for Cleveland’s pitchers. Josh Tomlin isn’t incapable of answering the call in Game 3, but he could need help from Miller and Allen. If he needs a lot of help from them, that could compromise their availability for Games 4 and 5 on Saturday and Sunday.

Oh, and any strong run-prevention effort could be for naught anyway in Game 3. Kyle Hendricks could see to that. 

He looked every bit like the pitcher who led baseball with a 2.13 ERA the last time he took the ball in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, facing the minimum number of batters through 7.1 innings. Cue some hard-hitting analysis: He’s really good.

Regardless of what happens in Game 3, Francona will then be playing not one, not two, but three wild cards with his starting rotation. He announced ahead of Game 2 that Kluber will start on three days’ rest in Game 4. While it’s not yet official, that would mean Bauer on short rest in Game 5 and, if necessary, Tomlin on short rest in Game 6.

Francona didn’t have much choice, of course. It was either this or a plan involving some combination of Ryan Merritt and Danny Salazar in Game 4. Francona isn’t wrong to want to restart the rotation of his best guys instead.

Still, you just never know with starters on short rest.

Even Kluber didn’t look as sharp on short rest in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series. He may not be any sharper in Game 4 of the World Series. Meanwhile, less sharp versions of Bauer (who’s wild to begin with) and Tomlin (who has hittable stuff) would not bode well for Cleveland in Games 5 and 6.

And once again, you worry about the bullpen equation with Kluber, Bauer and Tomlin on short rest.

Good work from the starters would allow Miller and Allen to continue cleaning up. They each have a 0.00 ERA this postseason. Not-so-good work from the starters would put the ball in the court of Cleveland’s other relievers. They have a 4.21 ERA this postseason.

If there’s a reason for optimism in all this, it could be that Cleveland’s loss in Game 2 was a case of a bad matchup.

It seemed the Indians couldn’t do anything with Arrieta not because he was at his best, but because he was unpredictable. His stuff and his location were all over the place, making him effectively wild. The Indians have done better against traditional strike-throwers this October, aggressively attacking and punishing guys like Rick Porcello, David Price, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ and, most recently, Lester.

As bad as it looks on paper, their matchup against Hendricks and his pinpoint command in Game 3 thus could turn out to be just what the Indians need to get back on track. They’ll face another strike-thrower in John Lackey in Game 4, and then things will turn back over to Lester for Game 5.

Speaking on a more general level, there’s also that nagging suspicion that the Indians are perfect for the underdog role they now find themselves in.

They play a scrappy, everything-but-the-kitchen-sink style of baseball that’s reminiscent of the Kansas City Royals. It’s proven to be a handful even for supposed superteams. And while they’re not always available, their biggest weapons—looking at you, Kluber, Miller and Allen—haven’t yet misfired when they’ve been used.

They’re facing their first big test of the postseason, all right. That doesn’t mean they can’t still ace it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

At the risk of going out on a limb for a team that hasn’t won a World Series in 108 years or even scored in a World Series in 71 years…

Don’t worry. The Chicago Cubs still have this.

Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday did not go as the Cubs planned. They presumably planned on preventing the Cleveland Indians from scoring runs while netting a few of their own against Corey Kluber and friends. Instead, Cleveland won going away, 6-0.

And so, the Cubs are still looking for their first World Series win since beating the Detroit Tigers in Game 6 of the 1945 Fall Classic. They’re also still looking for their first World Series run since the eighth inning of Game 7.

More troubling than that history, though, is the recent history of teams that have lost the first game of the World Series. Take it away, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com:

The latest odds don’t paint as ugly a picture, but they’re still not good. According to FanGraphs, Cleveland now has a 54.1 percent chance of winning its first World Series in 68 years.

But enough of these scary numbers.

Just because the Indians landed the first blow doesn’t mean everything has changed. The Cubs were heavy favorites with a 64.5 percent chance of victory coming into the series. And even if they’re not officially favorites after dropping Game 1, that should change quickly.

There are good reasons the Cubs lost Game 1, including two homers by Roberto Perez and stellar relief pitching by—who else?—Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. But the Cubs also played better than the 6-0 final indicates. Without Perez’s homers, the Indians would have needed a swinging bunt by Jose Ramirez and a Brandon Guyer hit-by-pitch to score runs. Cubs hitters had some good at-bats, especially against Miller in his two innings of work.

“We didn’t play as bad as that looked,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon said afterward, via Richard Justice of MLB.com.

The deciding factor in Game 1 was Kluber‘s pitching. The 2014 Cy Young winner pitched like his best self, giving up only four hits and striking out nine in six scoreless frames.

You could have seen this coming. The Cubs are a patient team that specializes in working pitchers. Kluber is a strike-thrower with great stuff. He beat the Cubs the same way Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill temporarily silenced them in the National League Championship Series: by going right at them.

Assuming Mother Nature doesn’t wash the game away, the Cubs will get a nice change of pace against Trevor Bauer in Game 2.

Bauer’s 4.26 ERA this season kept his career ERA safely above 4.00. Recently, his issues with walks (3.5 BB/9) and home runs (1.2 HR/9) came back to haunt him in the second half. He’s just the kind of pitcher the Cubs, No. 1 in the National League in walks and top five in homers, can handle.

And if an offensive barrage doesn’t result in an early shower for Bauer, the finger injury that has already taken him off the mound once this October could do the trick.

Either way, an early exit from Bauer would spell trouble for Cleveland. It would require Francona to get the best out of his bullpen. That basically means the best out of Miller, and he likely won’t be up to it after throwing 46 pitches in Game 1.

As such, the Cubs evening this series could be a matter of them getting quality innings out of Jake Arrieta. That’s an iffier proposal than it was this time a year ago. But he’s still a far safer bet than Bauer and Johnny Wholestaff.

The dominoes will line up nicely if the Cubs do win Game 2. They’ll be heading back to Wrigley Field needing just three more wins, and with the matchups in their favor.

Game 3 will feature Kyle Hendricks against Josh Tomlin. That’s a pitcher with the lowest ERA in baseball (2.13) and an even lower ERA at home (1.32) up against a pitcher who’s good, but who has only one of Kluber‘s qualities. Tomlin is a strike-thrower, but not with overwhelming swing-and-miss stuff.

Game 4 will be John Lackey up against either Kluber on three days’ rest, Ryan Merritt or Danny Salazar, or some combination of Merritt and Salazar. Either way, that game will also favor Chicago.

Kluber was not sharp when he started on short rest in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series, surrendering two runs in five innings. Merritt is sort of a left-handed Tomlin. Salazar is like Bauer, except wilder and minus any stamina after being on the disabled list since early September.

If the Cubs force a Game 5, their rotation would be flipped back over again for Jon Lester. He still has a 2.61 ERA even after allowing three earned runs in five and two-thirds innings in Game 1, and even that line overstates how much he struggled.

If the series shifts back to Cleveland for Games 6 and 7, the Cubs could rest easy knowing Kyle Schwarber is back.

Just six months after he suffered a major knee injury, the Cubs appeared to be indulging in wishful thinking when they threw Schwarber into their Game 1 lineup. After taking only a couple of at-bats in the Arizona Fall League, making him face Kluber seemed cruel and/or unusual.

Instead, Schwarber darn near took him deep.

That wasn’t Schwarber‘s only bright moment. He also worked Miller for a walk in the seventh inning, becoming just the second left-handed hitter to draw a walk off the lefty relief ace this season.

“You could see on the finish sometimes maybe the brace grabs him just a little bit. I kind of noticed that,” Maddon said of Schwarber in his postgame presser, via MLB.com. “Otherwise there was no kind of negative atmosphere surrounding his at-bats. I thought they were outstanding, actually.”

Although Schwarber can only DH in games at Progressive Field, that still makes him another weapon in Maddon‘s arsenal for this series. The rest of it, meanwhile, is a reminder of why the Cubs were such heavy favorites coming into the series.

The Cubs didn’t win 103 games this season by accident. They had the best starting rotation. They gained one of the best bullpens in the second half. They had one of the best offenses. They had the best defense.

The Indians are awfully good, but not as deep. That didn’t matter in Game 1 because they mostly beat the Cubs with their best guys. They can’t do that in every game. As this series involves more players, the more it will favor the Cubs.

So, there. Now that I’ve gone and stood up for the Cubs, what could possibly go wrong?

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Clayton Kershaw‘s worst postseason misadventures have mostly been tales of his having it and then losing it.

In Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, he never had it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers‘ ace left-hander was long gone by the time Yasiel Puig grounded into a double play to close a 5-0 win for the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Saturday night—sending them to their first World Series since 1945 and that much closer to their first championship since 1908. After setting out in his latest attempt to save the Dodgers from elimination, Kershaw lasted only five innings and allowed all five of Chicago’s runs.

That only four of those runs were earned is a small consolation prize. Kershaw’s career postseason ERA is up to 4.55 anyway. That’s the highest of any pitcher with at least 85 postseason innings.

And as noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Kershaw’s Game 6 performance was just the latest case of his being at his worst when the Dodgers need him most:

This isn’t the only reason L.A. has yet to turn any of its four straight NL West titles into a pennant or a World Series. But it is a reason. And a big one, at that.

Of course, the Dodgers may not have staved off elimination Saturday even if Kershaw had pitched like the three-time Cy Young winner they know him to be. Chicago pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Aroldis Chapman combined to allow only four baserunners, and all four were erased on three double plays and a pickoff. It was 27 up, and 27 down. In circumstances like those, there’s only so much a starting pitcher can do.

It is the primary function of the starting pitcher, however, to at least give his team a chance to win. Kershaw couldn’t even do that.

The vibrations were bad from the beginning. After allowing only two hits and no runs in seven innings in a 1-0 win in Game 2, Kershaw served up a pair of hits and a run to the first two batters he faced Saturday when Dexter Fowler doubled and Kris Bryant singled him home. Then there was an error by Andrew Toles in left field that set up Ben Zobrist for a sacrifice fly.

At the time, Toles’ error sounded like the opening notes of a familiar tune.

Kershaw’s postseason failures are a compelling narrative, but within it is contained a subplot of his teammates letting him down. As August Fagerstrom covered at FanGraphs, it’s typically been the guys in the Dodgers bullpen who have left him unsupported. The L.A. defense’s failure to help him seemed like the next logical step.

But it was also hard to ignore just how un-Kershaw he looked in the first inning. After needing only 84 pitches to get through seven innings in Game 2, he needed 30 to get through one in Game 6. His velocity was there, but he couldn’t get his fastball to go where he wanted it to.

Kershaw couldn’t fix that as the evening wore on, and it became apparent as he threw more and more pitches that he was dealing with another problem. His curveball, one of the great weapons of mass destruction in the sport, was not there. 

Per Brooks Baseball, he threw only 15 of them out of 93 pitches. And as ESPN.com’s Keith Law and many others observed, few of them were any good:

This seemed to become as obvious to Cubs hitters as it was to everyone watching at Wrigley Field or at home. They had come out swinging against Kershaw to begin with and only seemed to grow more comfortable once they realized they could sit on his fastball and slider.

Willson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo did the honors of demolishing both pitches. Contreras deposited a hanging slider in the left field bleachers in the fourth inning. Rizzo went even further into the right field bleachers when he jumped on a sidearm fastball in the fifth inning.

“I think that the first thing I saw is the Cubs’ hitters, they had a great game plan tonight,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, per Ken Gurnick and Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. “And there was a couple mistake sliders that they took advantage of. But they were running counts, they used the whole field, and there was traffic all night for Clayton. And he gave it everything he had, but when they did—when he did make a mistake, they made him pay.”

Officially, Saturday’s outing is not the worst postseason performance of Kershaw’s career.

Per ESPN.com, he put up a game score of 39. He’s done worse in two starts since the Dodgers began their run four years ago: Game 6 of the 2013 NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals and Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cardinals the next year.

But while Kershaw’s latest effort may not be his worst on paper, it may be the worst in practicality. He at least offered glimmers of hope with two shutout innings in the former and six one-run innings in the latter. A glimmer of hope never even appeared on the Chicago horizon Saturday.

Credit where it’s due: There was never a feeling that the Dodgers had the Cubs right where they wanted them even after they took a 2-1 series lead thanks to Kershaw and Rich Hill in Games 2 and 3. Beating a team that won 103 games in the regular season was never going to be that easy. In outscoring the Dodgers 23-6 in the final three games of the series, the Cubs proved just that.

“The better team won the series,” said Roberts, per Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

The thing about aces, though, is that they’re supposed to be the equalizers.

A truly great starting pitcher can level any playing field and turn a squad of underdogs into snarling beasts that rip all reasonable expectations to shreds. Madison Bumgarner did it in 2014. Josh Beckett did it in 2003. Et cetera.

Kershaw has the power to do this. It’s not the constant favor of Lady Luck that’s allowed him to carve out a career 2.37 ERA and the best adjusted ERA in history. He is a perfect pitcher, combining excellent stuff with pinpoint command and a competitive fire that can melt flesh right off the bone.

But for the life of him, he just can’t get his many talents to stick in October. And until he does, disappointment will keep finding the Dodgers.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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In Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, the Chicago Cubs will take on the Curse of the Billy Goat and Clayton Kershaw will take on the narrative.

It wouldn’t be October without a big chance for Kershaw to prove he can be a clutch postseason performer. Saturday’s Game 6 assignment will be his best chance yet, as the Los Angeles Dodgers will need a good performance from their ace to get out of a 3-2 hole and force a Game 7.

Meanwhile, Kyle Hendricks will be trying to pitch the Cubs into their first World Series since 1945. The Wrigley Field crowd would no doubt appreciate it if he did.

First pitch will happen shortly after 8 p.m. ET. Let’s pass the time by looking at three keys for each team to win Game 6.

Keys for the Los Angeles Dodgers

For Clayton Kershaw, Keep Pounding Those Fastballs

We all know about Kershaw‘s struggles in the postseason, but he’s still the best pitcher on the planet and the best hope for the Dodgers to get back on track after dropping Games 4 and 5.

Or as first baseman Adrian Gonzalez told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, “We can grab back that momentum with one name—Kershaw.”

A repeat of Kershaw‘s start in Game 2 would do nicely. He pitched the Dodgers to a 1-0 win with seven scoreless innings in which he allowed just two hits and a walk. He wasn’t messing around, and Brooks Baseball shows he went right at the Cubs with his highest fastball percentage of the season:

Why go right at the Cubs? Well, here’s a better question: Why not go right at the Cubs?

The defining characteristic of Chicago’s offense is its patience. Few teams swung less often in the regular season, and few teams expanded the strike zone less often. These things were big factors in the team’s NL-best .343 on-base percentage.

Kershaw is the perfect pitcher to combat this habit and make the Cubs beat him the hard way. Only fellow Dodger Rich Hill pounded the zone more often in 2016.

And if Kershaw sticks with his fastball to do so in Game 6, he’ll be relentlessly pounding the Cubs with 93-94 mph heat. Per Baseball Savant, their offense only tied for 15th in batting average when attacking that kind of heat in the zone.

Come Out Swinging Against Kyle Hendricks

Kershaw may be the best pitcher on the planet, but Hendricks is no slouch. He led baseball with a 2.13 ERA in the regular season. No wonder he’s not sweating Game 6.

“This is still the same game,” he said, per Paul Skrbina of the Chicago Tribune. “You’re making the same pitches. It’s the same lineup. There’s just more going on (on) the outside.”

It presumably will be the same lineup Hendricks faced in Game 2, when he allowed one run in 5.1 innings. The Dodgers did well to work him for four walks. But if they want to get to him, they should make like Merrill Hess and swing away.

Attacking Hendricks early makes sense on two fronts. One is within his first 25 pitches, where he was relatively hittable, allowing a .693 OPS this season. On another, this chart from Baseball Savant shows he’s most vulnerable early in counts:

Here’s a simpler breakdown: Hitters hit .302 against Hendricks on 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 counts and just .172 in all other counts.

The trick is to avoid his changeup. It’s his only swing-and-miss offering, and he throws it often. But he throws it most often in two-strike counts, when it makes up over 40 percent of his pitches.

Have Kenley Jansen on Speed Dial

If at all possible, the Dodgers do not want to use any reliever other than Kenley Jansen in Game 6.

This should be obvious in light of what Dodgers relievers not named Jansen have done in this series. Joe Blanton has served up two big home runs, and other relievers not named Jansen helped turn close games into laughers in the club’s last two losses.

Manager Dave Roberts seems to be more aware of how ugly it’s been than he wants to let on.

“I’m not going to shy away from any of these guys [in the bullpen],” he said after Game 5, per Eric Stephen of SB Nation. “But obviously you look at going into Game 6, Kenley’s going to have a few days off, and we’ve got our ace going. So it will give our guys a chance to reset. But again, these guys have gotten big outs for us all year long.”

Translation—I know they’re there, but I’d rather only Kershaw and Jansen pitch in Game 6.

Good idea. Jansen will indeed be well-rested after last being used in Game 3 on Tuesday. He’s also a good matchup for the Cubs in the same way Kershaw is a good matchup for them: He’s an aggressive strike-thrower with an overpowering fastball. The only difference is that Jansen’s is a cutter.

It shouldn’t be a big deal if Roberts needs Jansen before the ninth inning. He’s entered earlier than the ninth in four of his six appearances this postseason. He’s put a goose egg on the board each time.

If he can do so again in Game 6 after a Kershaw-like performance from Kershaw, this series could be tied.

Keys for the Chicago Cubs

Come Out Swinging Against Clayton Kershaw

Cubs hitters should approach Kershaw the same way Dodgers hitters should approach Hendricks.

The alternative is working Kershaw and trying to drive up his pitch count, with the idea being to get at the underbelly of the Dodgers bullpen. Or if that fails, possibly luring Kershaw into the kind of seventh-inning trap that tends to snare him in October.

However, the Cubs experienced the pitfall of taking such an approach against Kershaw in Game 2.

After swinging at just 45.4 percent of all pitches in the regular season, Baseball Savant put their swing rate in Game 2 at just 46.1 percent. Given how much Kershaw pounds the zone, it’s no wonder he got through seven innings on just 84 pitches before handing the ball to Jansen to close out Game 2.

Going into attack mode is a better idea when facing the three-time Cy Young winner. He has a similar count split to Hendricks, holding batters to a .276 average on 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 counts and a .155 average on all other counts. 

Besides that, trying to work Kershaw is typically a good way to get into a two-strike count. On that note, check out where he ranked in OPS allowed with two strikes this season:

1. Clayton Kershaw: .281
2. Corey Kluber: .357

When you’re that much better at something than Corey Kluber, you’re really good at that something.

Let that be a warning to the Cubs. Don’t mess around. Swing the bats.

Sinkers and Changeups for Kyle Hendricks

Hendricks doesn’t normally need to be told to throw sinkers and changeups. ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers has some notes about why:

According to ESPN Stats & Information, he used [sinkers and changeups] more than 75 percent of the time in the regular season, keeping the ball in the lower third of the strike zone 56 percent of the time. The result was a .450 OPS on those pitches, by far the lowest among all qualified pitchers.

And yet, Hendricks got away from his two bread-and-butter pitches in Game 2. Only 51 of his 91 pitches (56 percent) were sinkers and changeups. Instead, he opted for one of the highest percentages of four-seam fastballs he’s used all season.

This may have been a reaction to the lineup he was facing. The Dodgers started only one right-handed hitter (Justin Turner) in Game 2, attacking Hendricks with left-handed hitters in the other eight spots in their lineup. Throughout the year, Hendricks generally has preferred his four-seamer against lefties.

The argument for sticking with his four-seamer against the same lineup in Game 6 is the .355 average lefties compiled against his sinker. But it’s a hollow .355, containing only eight extra-base hits (all doubles). Given that 53.5 percent of the sinkers lefties have put in play have been on the ground, that can continue in Game 6.

As for Hendricks’ changeup, there are no issues there. Lefties have hit just .135 against it this year. It’s not a pitch they’re jonesing to see.

No Lefties Left Behind

Here’s a not-so-hot take: The Cubs bullpen is better than the Dodgers bullpen. If Game 6 becomes a bullpen battle, the Cubs will have the advantage by default.

But if Chicago skipper Joe Maddon wants to press his advantage in Game 6, he’ll unleash the lefties.

You’ve probably heard about the Dodgers’ struggle against left-handed pitching. If not, well, they put up a .622 OPS against lefties this season, easily the worst of any team. If given a choice between facing a lefty and a root canal, they may go for door No. 2.

This is where Mike Montgomery, Travis Wood and Aroldis Chapman come into focus.

They’re three solid left arms for Maddon to throw at the Dodgers if need be, and he shouldn’t be afraid to use any one of them. Although Montgomery and Chapman have given up four earned runs in this series, they’ve also combined for four scoreless appearances. Wood has three of those of his own. In other words, these three have mostly been able to exploit the most obvious weakness on either side of this series.

If they can do it again in Game 6, the Cubs could find themselves in their first World Series in 71 years and that much closer to finally ending their 108-year championship drought.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted or linked.

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