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Veteran outfielder Jon Jay came to terms Tuesday with the Chicago Cubs on a one-year contract worth $8 million, according to the Associated Press. 

The Cubs later confirmed the signing on Twitter. 

Jay developed into a reliable offensive producer across six years with the St. Louis Cardinals. He put up a .354 OBP and .738 OPS across 757 games with the organization before the Cardinals traded him to the San Diego Padres in a deal for Jedd Gyorko last offseason.

Just like his final year in St. Louis, however, the center fielder’s debut season in San Diego failed to reach expectations because of injury. He battled through wrist problems in 2015 and was limited to 90 games this past season because of a broken forearm.

Those setbacks, combined with the fact he’s not a major power or speed threat, left his stock a bit up in the air as his previous contract came to an end.

In August, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune noted Jay expressed interest in staying with the Padres but also discussed the attractiveness of hitting the open market:

I love San Diego, I love what’s going on, I love where the team’s headed. Obviously, with free agency, you wait so long to get to this point as a player, you want to see what’s out there. But at the same time, I feel very comfortable here. I do like it a lot here, so this is definitely something my wife and I will discuss when we’re making those decisions.

It’s a common internal debate for free agents, especially a late bloomer like Jay, who will have a limited number of chances to cash in.

In the end, Jay decided the Cubs gave him the best opportunity to make a significant impact moving forward. It’s not a major loss for the Padres, however, since several of their outfield prospects, such as Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe, are ready for full-time roles in the majors.

Jay is capable of playing anywhere in the outfield, and that versatility is valuable as Chicago starts building its lineup for next season. His ability to get on base could make him a nice fit for the No. 2 spot in the lineup, too.

He’s not the flashiest player in the field, and his signing won’t generate a ton of attention, but he can provide a nice boost if he can stay healthy for the first time since 2014.

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Since Yoenis Cespedes and the New York Mets seem so right for one another, it’s fitting they would agree to a contract that’s so right for one another.

A reunion between Cespedes and the Mets was the big news coming off the hot stove Tuesday.

The 31-year-old outfielder became a free agent when he opted out of a three-year, $75 million contract in early November, which prompted questions about whether he would find a better deal elsewhere. Instead, he found a better deal at the same place he’s called home since the 2015 trade deadline.

After Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the deal was done, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports spilled the details:

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, Cespedes also got full no-trade protection.

And so, the 2016-17 MLB offseason recorded its first major signing. Cespedes‘ deal is worth more than twice the $52 million Josh Reddick got from the Houston Astros in his own four-year contract. It’s appropriate Cespedes was the one to do the deed, as he was widely considered the best free agent available this winter.

The bigger surprise was that the Mets signed Cespedes. They always loomed as the best fit for him, but whether they could make the financials work was a big question from the beginning.

It became an even bigger question when Mike Puma of the New York Post ran out this report last week:

Within the industry, there is a growing sense the star outfielder will command a five-year deal, which would leave the Mets facing a major decision on their immediate future.

As it stands, the Mets are likely committed to signing the 31-year-old if a four-year contract in the $100 million-to-$110 million neighborhood can be hammered out, according to an industry source, but there is less clarity on the matter when an additional year — which could push the value of a deal beyond $130 million — is considered.

A deal in that neighborhood was hardly out of the question. For instance, Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors projected Cespedes would find a five-year, $125 million contract.

The fact that the Mets brought him back for one fewer year and for significantly less guaranteed money was a big win for them. And at $27.5 million per season, they’ll pay him the rough equivalent of the salary they just fit onto their payroll in 2016.

And just as important, they retained a hugely important part of their lineup.

Cespedes has done nothing but mash for the Mets since they acquired him from the Detroit Tigers in July 2015. He OPS’d .942 with 17 home runs over the last two months of that season and returned to OPS .884 with 31 homers in 2016.

Cespedes‘ production has gone back and forth between propelling the Mets offense to greatness and saving it from utter ruin. Without him in 2015, New York would not have caught fire like it did. Without him in 2016, an even worse fate than finishing tied for 11th in the National League in runs would have been in store.

The reality that this arrangement will continue at a reasonable rate for four more years makes it easier for the Mets to swallow the downsides that are part of living with Cespedes. Those include his occasional defensive lapses and the aches and pains that have limited him to under 140 games in three of his five major league seasons.

Of course, his status as an easily marketable superstar is another bonus that makes him worth the occasional annoyances. Cespedes is media-shy, but his fondness for long dingers and shiny objects gives him a larger-than-life persona that’s perfect for baseball’s biggest media market.

But lest anyone think Cespedes did the Mets a favor by agreeing to a possibly below-market deal, let’s pump the brakes for a second.

Neither the years nor the dollars jump off the page relative to past free-agent contracts, but the average annual value of Cespedes‘ deal is no joke. Here’s Rosenthal putting it in perspective:

So to that extent, Cespedes‘ new contract makes him one of the highest-paid players in baseball history. And in the long run, the relatively short length of it could ensure there’s more where that came from.

Though Cespedes is still an excellent athlete who runs well and throws as mightily as any outfielder, his main attraction is his power. It was trending down for a while there, but he’s since turned into one of the best mashers in baseball. Over the last two seasons, he ranked 12th among qualified hitters in ISO (isolated power) with a mark of .251.

Cespedes has always had the swing path to get to this point, as he’s generally hit more fly balls than ground balls. What he needed to start doing was applying his tremendous raw power more consistently.

His hard-contact percentages reveal he’s done just that:

• 2012: 33.0%
• 2013: 31.6%
• 2014: 31.1%
• 2015: 35.8%
• 2016: 39.3%

Cespedes added yet another layer to his slugging transformation in 2016: For the first time in his career, he walked more often than the average hitter.

Corinne Landrey of FanGraphs looked at the precedent for this last week and came away unconvinced that this new habit has guaranteed lasting power. However, it might. Cespedes did improve his plate discipline, after all, and his power is certainly a reason for pitchers to be careful with him.

If he remains a disciplined power hitter over the next four seasons, there should be a market for him in his next dance with free agency—even if his other skills have eroded between the ages of 31 and 35. As much as teams like young, well-rounded players, they’ve shown they’re willing to shower money on older, one-dimensional players so long as that one dimension is a dangerous bat.

To wit, Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez each got about $15 million per season in a multiyear contract. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista should do the same this winter.

If Cespedes follows in their footsteps, his new contract will be just as easy to appreciate then as it is now. Maybe he could have found a bigger deal, but he settled for the better deal.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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For the second year in a row, the New York Mets have re-signed Yoenis Cespedes. The team announced the deal on Wednesday:

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal initially reported the deal on Tuesday. Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported the contract is worth $110 million over four years. Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported it comes with a full no-trade clause. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported Cespedes wanted a fifth year but New York held firm at four.

Heyman provided a yearly salary breakdown:

The deal is the second-biggest in Mets history after they paid Carlos Beltran $119 million over seven years.

Cespedes is hopeful he will be able to finish his career with the Mets, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com:

“This is the 3rd time we have acquired Yoenis in 17 months and it appears two legal separations has made the marriage stronger,” general manager Sandy Alderson said, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Cespedes‘ choice of automobiles became one of the more enjoyable stories of spring training last year. Starting pitcher Brett Anderson assumed at least one car dealer is having a good day:

Joel Sherman of the New York Post is a fan of the move:

Sports Illustrated‘s Joe Sheehan raised concern with the no-trade clause, though:

Cespedes is coming off another solid season at the plate. He batted .280 with 31 home runs and 86 RBI in 132 games.

Last offseason, the then-30-year-old was coming off his best campaign. He was so good in the second half with the Mets that he entered the National League Most Valuable Player discussion.

Despite his success in the Big Apple, he signed what was effectively a one-year deal—three years, $75 million with an opt-out after 2016. While his performance dipped slightly, Cespedes was bound to command a premium in what is a lackluster free-agent market.

Cespedes was arguably the best hitter available this offseason. Edwin Encarnacion (33) and Jose Bautista (36) are both older, while Justin Turner and Ian Desmond don’t boast the same body of work.

Despite that, signing Cespedes comes with concerns.

Since making the jump to the United States, his numbers have fluctuated somewhat from one year to the next, as FanGraphs shows:

In addition to his hitting dropping slightly from 2015, his defense fell off a cliff in 2016. According to FanGraphs, he had a 15.6 ultimate zone rating a year ago, which dropped to minus-6.7 this year. His defensive runs saved fell from 11 to minus-3.

On a less quantifiable level, Cespedes‘ behavior off the field can leave a little to be desired.

During the season, the Mets had to tell him to refrain from golfing while he was on the disabled list after it created negative media attention, per ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin. The New York Daily News‘ John Harper wrote Cespedes didn’t celebrate with his teammates after the team secured an NL wild-card spot.

Rubin wrote in October about the Mets’ concern regarding Cespedes‘ motivation were he to sign a long-term deal:

General manager Sandy Alderson generally is averse to longer-term deals, and there is particular concern that Cespedes might not provide maximum effort for the duration of a lengthy contract without the carrot of an opt-out clause.

Baseball executives believe Cespedes favors getting money up front, so perhaps a front-loaded, shorter-term deal could work, despite the Mets’ pessimism.

When a star is delivering results, eccentric behavior is embraced—or at least tolerated. When he’s not meeting expectations, that won’t hold true.

For all of his greatness, Barry Bonds’ surly personality was his undoing as he reached the twilight of his MLB career. Manny Ramirez wore out his welcome with the Boston Red Sox despite being a beloved figure among the fanbase for years prior.

None of that is to say Cespedes will start having a negative impact on the Mets clubhouse.

In January, David Wright spoke highly of Cespedes.

“I will put my name behind the statement that Yo was a good teammate on the field and a great teammate off the field,” he said in an interview with the New York Daily News‘ Kristie Ackert.

Keeping Cespedes is risky; a return to his less impressive Boston Red Sox days isn’t out of the question.

The Mets had little choice but to make every effort to re-sign Cespedes, though. Losing him would have been a crippling blow to the lineup.

The past year demonstrated that New York can’t afford to assume its young starting rotation will guarantee continued title contention. The front office needs to do everything it can to capitalize on its World Series window, and signing Cespedes sends the message the team is willing to do whatever is necessary to achieve that goal.

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Cincinnati Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton is an intriguing potential trade chip for the team this offseason.

Continue for updates.

Hamilton Among the Reds Reportedly on the Trade Block

Tuesday, Nov. 29

According to ESPN Insider Buster Olney, the Reds are “listening to offers on all of their players, including—sources say—center fielder Billy Hamilton.” 

Olney added: “By the time the Reds are good again, Hamilton—who has three-plus years of service time—will be on the verge of free agency, so it makes sense for Cincinnati to explore and execute a deal, because Hamilton’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now.”

Hamilton, 26, went from simply being known as a fantastic baserunner during his career to putting together a solid all-around season in 2016, hitting .260 with three home runs, 17 RBI, 69 runs scored and 58 stolen bases in 119 games played. 

He also is an excellent fielder. As Olney noted, “Hamilton ranked seventh among all outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved” and “led all major leaguers—by far—in FanGraphs’ baserunning efficiency metric.”

Those numbers would have been even better, but Hamilton’s season was over on Sept. 4 due to injury. But it’s clear Hamilton took a step forward in 2016.

“This year has been a little taste of what I want to become,” he told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times on Sept. 3. “I don’t want to have this few weeks of going good and then go back to normal. I’m just looking forward to what’s going to come.”

One change for Hamilton was a new mentality at the plate.

“I’m thinking more this year about being a line-drive hitter, trying to hit the ball in the gap, not focusing on hitting ground balls,” he said. “A lot of these guys can hit home runs, hit the ball deep in the gap. My job is to hit it as low as I can, on a line. That’s what I figured out.”

Certainly, if Hamilton continues to improve his batting average and on-base percentage, he’ll be one of the most dangerous weapons at the leadoff spot in baseball. That should make him an attractive trade target for contending teams looking to bolster the top of their lineup. 

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter. 

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Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison is a candidate to be dealt this winter.

Continue for updates.

Harrison Reportedly on the Trade Block

Tuesday, Nov. 29

The Pirates are considering trading Harrison this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. 

Per Rosenthal’s report: “The Pirates tried to re-sign free-agent infielder Sean Rodriguez with the idea of trading Harrison and reallocating dollars to other players, according to major league sources.”

Rosenthal also wrote, “One rival general manager described the Pirates on Thursday as a club that ‘generally’ listens to trade offers for players under long-term control.”

The Pirates find themselves in an interesting situation with Harrison. On one hand, Rodriguez signed with the Atlanta Braves this offseason, taking away the obvious replacement for Harrison. On the other, he is due a guaranteed $18.5 million over the next two seasons, which is a steep price for a player whose offensive production has declined.

In 2016, Harrison, 29, hit .283 with 59 RBI and 57 runs scored, all solid marks. But he hit just four home runs and has only eight homers in the past two seasons combined after ripping 13 in 2014, the year he made the All-Star team.

Harrison remains an excellent fielder, so the Pirates won’t be worse for keeping him this offseason. But his production from 2014 (.315 average with 13 homers, 52 RBI and 77 runs) looks like an outlier season, not the norm.

As Rosenthal noted, the Pirates have Alen Hanson and Adam Frazier waiting in the wings if the team trades Harrison.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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The Milwaukee Brewers added a potentially huge power bat Tuesday by signing first baseman Eric Thames to a three-year contract.

MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy was the first to report the move. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel confirmed the signing and added there is a fourth-year option as part of the deal.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports shared the terms of the agreement:

Per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, Thames will make $15 million in guaranteed money.

Following the signing, the Brewers announced they designated first baseman Chris Carter for assignment.

While Carter hit 41 home runs and drove in 94 runs last season, he hit just .222, and McCalvy pointed out Milwaukee wanted more balance in its lineup:

The 30-year-old Thames has spent the past three seasons playing in the Korean Baseball Organization, where he averaged 41 home runs and 126 RBI per year. He also stole 40 bases in 2015 and posted an on-base percentage of .497.

Thames previously appeared in 181 MLB games over the course of two seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners in 2011 and 2012.

The former seventh-round draft pick hit .262 with 12 homers and 37 RBI as a rookie before slipping to .232 with nine home runs and 25 RBI in his second campaign.

Thames is capable of playing both first base and the outfield, and he represents a major wild card for the Brew Crew.

While Thames’ production in Korea is undeniable, it is difficult to predict how it will project to Major League Baseball.

A recent similar case is that of Dae-Ho Lee, who slugged 44 home runs in Korea in 2010 before hitting 14 for the Mariners in 292 at-bats last season.

Thames will be hard-pressed to match Carter’s power production, but if he can cut down significantly on Carter’s strikeout numbers (206 in 160 games last season) and reach base with regularity, he could prove to be an upgrade even if the home runs drop.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

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MLB‘s long-lasting labor peace seems to be sitting precariously on the edge of a cliff, with sources telling ESPN’s Buster Olney that teams will skip next week’s winter meetings if “sufficient progress” isn’t made in talks with the MLB Players Association.

While that’s unquestionably put some teams in a holding pattern when it comes to getting serious about making significant roster moves, it hasn’t silenced the rumor mill, which continues to churn out rumor and speculation on the trade front.

Over the past week, that chatter has revolved around a number of players, including a Gold Glove Award-winning outfielder, a former All-Star closer and a slugging second baseman.

Keep in mind these proposed deals are only ideas and speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication any of them have actually been discussed.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers couldn’t complete a Yasiel Puig-for-Ryan Braun trade in August. Nonetheless, they left a sense they could do so eventually.

Well, how ’bout now?

After all, the August proposal wasn’t just some preposterous idea the Dodgers and Brewers kicked around for only a minute or two. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Sept. 2 the two sides made a “legitimate attempt” to complete it, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Sept. 14 a deal was “about 20 minutes” from being finished before the Aug. 31 deadline passed.

Some things have changed since then. But according to Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times, among the things that haven’t is Puig‘s availability:

Meanwhile in Milwaukee, Braun and the Brewers haven’t pushed thoughts of a trade out of sight or out of mind. General manager David Stearns told the Associated Press (via ESPN.com) on Wednesday that he’s asked about it regularly. Braun, for his part, is getting tired of being in limbo.

“Not knowing 100 percent where [I’ll] be playing is hard. It definitely complicates things,” he said. “Obviously, things come up. It’s a part of the business. It’s a part of the profession. If something were to happen, we’d figure it out when we get there.”

Mind you, there are hurdles in the way for the Dodgers to trade their 25-year-old right fielder for the Brewers’ 33-year-old left fielder.

The big one is money. Braun’s contract still has four years and $76 million left on it. Puig‘s contract calls for only two years and $17.4 million, plus a year of arbitration in 2019.

Though the Dodgers have spared no expense in recent years, swapping the contracts would be problematic. As Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported Saturday, they’re looking to cut payroll as they seek to satisfy a mandate from Major League Baseball to reduce their debt.

But where there’s a will, there’s a way. And both sides should still have the will to bring their earlier talks to completion.

For the Brewers, trading Braun would be the next step toward completing their rebuild.

They’ve already shed a lot of payroll, going from a mark of $104.2 million on Opening Day in 2015 to $63.9 million in 2016. If they move Braun’s contract, their guaranteed money will be down to Matt Garza’s $12.5 million salary for 2017.

All that payroll space would be needed soon enough. Through smart drafting and trading, Milwaukee has turned a barren farm system into one that MLB.com’s Jim Callis ranked No. 1 in early August. It shouldn’t be long before the Brewers have one of baseball’s best young cores. Not long after that, they’ll be looking to lock it up.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Freeing up payroll would be the main attraction for Milwaukee in a Braun deal. But if it’s going to take on a player in return, it may as well be a lottery ticket like Puig.

He certainly has issues. He went from a .925 OPS in 2013 to a .740 OPS in 2016. With a total of 183 games played over the last two seasons, his durability has trended in the same direction. And even with his worst incidents seemingly behind him, his character remains yet another question mark.

“They’re going to take the next two weeks to try to figure out whether Yasiel Puig can fit onto the team,” Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball wrote in mid-September. “Nobody has cited anything terrible Puig has done, but there’s no getting around the fact he’d annoyed an entire clubhouse.”

If nothing else, this makes Puig a perfect candidate for a change of scenery. Going from Los Angeles, one of MLB’s biggest media markets, to Milwaukee, one of its smallest, could be just the change of scenery he needs.

Puig‘s durability and production are different matters. But as far as reasons to be optimistic go, his youth is a darn good one. With his age-26 season due up in 2017, he shouldn’t be past his physical prime.

Besides, Puig‘s struggle hasn’t been a steady string of badness. He has shown flashes of the Rookie of the Year runner-up and All-Star that he was in 2013 and 2014. He began 2015 with an .816 OPS through his first 40 games, and he ended 2016 with an .857 OPS over his final 51 games.

If Puig stays on the field and maintains that form, he would be one of two things for the Brewers: one of many quality players on a young and exciting roster or valuable trade bait if it turns out the team needs more time to rebuild.

As for the other end of this trade, the fit between Braun and the Dodgers is more straightforward.

With a career .910 OPS and an .879 OPS with 55 home runs and 40 stolen bases over the last two seasons, Braun would be an upgrade for Los Angeles in either left or right field. Those two spots were the Dodgers’ worst for offense in 2016.

The fact that Braun is a right-handed hitter gives him extra appeal. With Justin Turner afloat on the free-agent waters, Los Angeles needs one of those to balance a lineup that skews left-handed with Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles and switch-hitter Yasmani Grandal.

The left-handedness of the Dodgers lineup contributed to its fatal flaw in 2016. With a .622 OPS, Los Angeles was the most inept team in the majors against left-handed pitching. It hit left-handers about as well as Erick Aybar hit everyone.

It so happens Braun is especially lethal against lefties. The 1.010 OPS he had against lefties in 2016 was in line with his career 1.028 OPS against them.

That, by the way, is the best mark of any hitter with at least 1,000 plate appearances against lefties since 2007, Braun’s rookie season.

How much longer Braun keeps this up is a good question. He’s not young, so his recent thumb and back surgeries and average of 136 games played over each of the last three seasons loom large. So does his history with performance-enhancing drugs, which got him suspended in 2013.

These concerns are why the Dodgers must try to send more than just Puig to Milwaukee. As Nightengale reported, they were also going to give up prospects and Brandon McCarthy, who would’ve helped even things out with his $23 million in guaranteed money over the next two seasons. That idea should remain on the table.

But one way or another, Braun offers enough potential reward to balance the risk.

For all his question marks, he’s been productive in the last two seasons despite being old and (for all we know) clean. If he ages well, there’s more where this came from. If he doesn’t, he could still be a useful player as he comes down from high heights.

Of course, the Dodgers must have worked this out months ago. The same goes for the Brewers with Puig. Two teams don’t get 20 minutes from a trade without convincing themselves it’s a good idea.

So, all the clubs have to do now is get back to talking.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Payroll and contract information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball  .

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Free-agent starting pitcher Edinson Volquez and the Miami Marlins reportedly agreed to terms on a contract on Monday.

The Miami Herald‘s Clark Spencer first reported the news, while Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports confirmed the news and added the deal is for two years and $22 million pending a physical. 

In his second season with the Kansas City Royals, Volquez compiled a 10-11 record with a 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He gave up more than a hit per inning and allowed a career-worst 23 home runs. FanGraphs‘ WAR formula measured his performance as being 1.1 wins worse than he was in 2015, when he was an integral part of the staff that led Kansas City to the World Series.

“I think I was kind of struggling all year,” Volquez said, according to the Associated Press (h/t the Washington Times). “It was one of those years. Everything doesn’t go your way.”

While far from his best year, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see the Royals take a chance on Volquez in 2017. The $11 million price tag isn’t all that exorbitant for a reliable arm. The Royals will likely wind up paying as much, if not more, to replace him with another veteran.

And even though Volquez wasn’t at his best, he wasn’t all that bad once you dig a little deeper. His ERA was nearly a full run worse than his FIP, his home run-to-fly ball ratio leaped nearly 5 percent from 2015 and opponents raised their average on balls in play by 29 points, per FanGraphs. A 1.5 WAR wasn’t what the Royals expected, but that’s still roughly in line with what an $11 million arm will produce nowadays.

If anything, Volquez got a little unlucky in 2016.

Now he heads to a Marlins rotation in desperate need of some help after staff ace Jose Fernandez died in a boating accident in September. The Marlins staff is shaping up to include Volquez alongside Adam Conley, Tom Koehler and Wei-Yin Chen.

The Marlins staff compiled a 4.05 ERA last season, good enough for sixth in the National League.

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If the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to dangle some starting pitchers on the winter trade market, they can rest easy knowing they at least have some name value to attract interested parties.

There’s Zack Greinke, who needs no introduction. There’s also Shelby Miller, who used to be good. Ditto with Patrick Corbin. Then there’s Taijuan Walker and Archie Bradley, two former top prospects who still have youth on their side.

Interested parties could, however, choose to skip past them and go to the [suppresses urge to type “Diamondback in the Rough”] diamond in the rough: Robbie Ray.

The Diamondbacks may already be expecting as much. After all, the word from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is that they’re expecting interest in all of their young starters to pick up:

This adds up. In trading 2016 All-Star Jean Segura to the Seattle Mariners for Walker last week, new general manager Mike Hazen has already begun remaking a roster that produced just 69 wins in 2016. And with talented starters in short supply on the free-agent market, the Diamondbacks’ arms are bound to draw a crowd eventually. If they aren’t already, of course.

For the reasons referenced above, Hazen will get calls about Greinke, Miller, Corbin, Walker and Bradley. But Ray’s the guy who’s most likely to send the phone ringing off the proverbial hook. 

Reason No. 1: The left-hander is still only 25 with four years of club control left.

Reason No. 2: He’s very talented.

A surface-level examination of Ray’s career will raise questions about the second point. He only managed a 4.90 ERA in his 32 starts in 2016. Before that, he was a throw-in in two trades involving Doug Fister and Didi Gregorius. Before that, he was a fringey prospect after he was picked in the 12th round of the 2010 draft.

But for all the nits to pick, there’s a redeeming quality from Ray’s 2016 season that’s impossible to overlook. He struck out 218 batters in 174.1 innings. That’s 11.25 per nine innings, which was second only to the late Jose Fernandez among qualified starters.

Also, one of the best single-season marks ever for a left-hander:

Since strikeouts generally don’t happen by accident, nobody should be surprised to hear Ray’s didn’t.

After debuting with an average fastball of 91.3 miles per hour in 2014, he cranked it up to 94.1 mph in 2016. Some of that could be his coming into his physical prime. As Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs highlighted last year, it may also be coming from his abandoning a higher arm slot in favor of a more natural sidearm delivery.

Ray’s money pitch, however, is his slider. Its velocity has risen as well, from 81.1 mph in 2014 to 85.1 mph in 2016. Brooks Baseball shows he also buried more sliders below the knees, like so:

The result: Ray’s slider had the eighth-highest whiff-per-swing rate of any slider thrown by any starter, according to Baseball Prospectus.

Ray’s stuff would be attractive under any circumstances. His youth makes it even more attractive. The lack of starters who offer either of these qualities on the open market makes it more enticing still.

Of course, this raises the question of why the Diamondbacks wouldn’t prefer to keep him. There’s indeed a good chance they will. But the reason they could take advantage of Ray’s trade value now traces back to the essential truth reflected in the 4.90 ERA he posted this past season:

His talent comes with fatal flaws.

One is his control, which has produced mediocre walks-per-nine rates in the 3.5-3.7 range. That would be fine if he could at least avoid hard contact in between strikeouts and walks. But that was as big a problem as his 1.24 HR/9 and .352 batting average on balls in play from 2016 would indicate.

Per Baseball Savant, Ray was among the worst in the league with average exit velocity of 90.7 mph. This points to how his command is as big a question mark as his control. The bulk of the damage came on his heat, which he located with a noticeable pattern across the middle of the strike zone.

That’s a bad idea in general, and an even worse idea against right-handed batters. They hit .278 with 14 homers off Ray’s heat in 2016. Lo and behold, he ended the year with the following platoon split:

• Against LHB: .684 OPS, 3 HR
• Against RHB: .797 OPS, 21 HR

Say it with me now: Yikes.

Mind you, maybe Ray’s iffy fastball command wouldn’t be such a problem against right-handed batters if he had something to change speeds with. But he doesn’t. He’s largely scrapped his changeup, throwing it only 5.7 percent of the time in 2016.

The fact that Ray is basically a two-pitch pitcher leads to yet another problem. This one was covered by FanGraphs‘ August Fagerstrom, with the short version being: Ray’s predictability makes life very difficult the third time through the batting order.

All told, Ray is a strange creature. He’s done enough to turn into an overpowering starter, but he still needs quite a bit of work to turn into a truly dominant starter. 

And yet, this strange set of circumstances makes him the perfect trade chip for this winter’s market. The upside contained in his ability and controllability could have teams lining up to trade for him, and his faults could keep his price tag well below those of guys like Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander.

To boot, there’s a number of ways a trade for Ray could work out.

If he irons out his issues, he could turn into a top-of-the-rotation starter. If not, he’d be a candidate to make like Andrew Miller and turn his fastball-slider combo into a life as a relief ace. Failing that, he could make like Brett Cecil and turn into an elite lefty specialist.

The bottom line is that Ray’s arm ought to be on the radar of every team desperate for pitching this winter. With so few options available elsewhere, it’s a good one to try to take a chance on.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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