Kuzul

The New York Yankees need a starting pitcher. In past winters, that would have led to their going after only the best options, and damn the cost!

But since they need to be smart this winter, let’s help point them toward Rich Hill.

In truth, it can be hard to tell which direction the Yankees are leaning in. The offseason rumor mill has featured whispers about their continuing the sell-off they kicked into high gear over the summer. Other times, it’s featured whispers about their buying up the hot-stove season’s biggest names.

Hey, even general manager Brian Cashman doesn’t seem settled on a specific direction.

“We have been walking the tightrope for a few years, and now it is (making decisions for) 2017 vs. ’18, ’19 and ’20,” he told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. “Some decisions we make will be for the future and some for the present, and they might contradict each other. We are doing both.”

However, there are things that put the Yankees more in a position to add than subtract.

For one, they’re already loaded with young talent. They entered 2016 with a respectable farm system. After trades of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran, Jim Callis of MLB.com was calling it arguably MLB’s best at the end of July.

Also, it’s partially thanks to that young talent the Yankees finished 2016 stronger than they started it. They went from 44-44 before the All-Star break to 40-34 after it. They got a big boost from catcher Gary Sanchez and smaller ones from first baseman Tyler Austin and right fielder Aaron Judge.

Those three are lined up for everyday jobs in 2017. So is first baseman Greg Bird, who missed 2016 following shoulder surgery. With veterans such as Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius and Chase Headley rounding things out, the Yankees lineup is in solid shape.

The starting rotation, however, is a different story. It’s Masahiro Tanaka on top and then a series of age (see: CC Sabathia) and effectiveness (see: Michael Pineda) question marks.

This bring us, at long last, back to Hill. According to Buster Olney of ESPN, he’s on the Yankees’ radar as a potential fix for what ails them:

This sort of feels like classic Yankees. They’re used to targeting only the best free agents, and there’s little question Hill is the best starting pitcher on the open market. Nobody else even comes close to the 2.00 ERA the well-traveled left-hander has over the last two seasons.

But the caveats here are obvious.

Hill is talented, but he’s not durable. He’s 36 years old and has pitched just 626.1 major league innings, postseason included. He’s had everything from labrum surgery to Tommy John surgery to, most recently, lingering blister issues.

Hill is also the best starter on the open market in part because it’s a terrible market for free-agent starters—Craig Edwards of FanGraphs has the rundown on that.

This has gotten the trade rumor mill spinning at warp speed. A sampling of the biggest names supposedly available includes Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer and Zack Greinke.

With only Tanaka and Ellsbury still under long-term, big-money contracts, the Yankees have enough financial flexibility to take on any of those names. For reasons referenced above, they also have the prospect depth to work out a satisfactory deal.

But the question the Yankees are facing is the same one the Atlanta Braves have in their own search for starting pitching: Is now the right time to abandon the long game?

The point of the Yankees’ sell-off was to give in to the reality that they were past due to try to build a winner from the ground up. And not a moment too soon. That’s how championship teams must be built in an era that, as Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight and others noted, is dominated by young talent.

After their summer sell-off, it’s already possible to see a perennial World Series contender in the Yankees’ not-so-distant future. But that vision would be disrupted if they were to take a good chunk of that young talent and send it to another team for an ace.

That would be fine if it made the Yankees a World Series contender right now. But that’s a stretch. FanGraphs has them projected as a .500 team in 2017. That puts them more than just one ace away from being favorites. To get where they need to be would require trading for an ace and then making more deals or big-money signings.

Either way, the bright future that exists now would go up in smoke. And if the Yankees’ efforts to win in the short term failed, they’d find themselves back at square one ready to rebuild all over again.

Which is why they should just sign Hill.

It’s going to cost good money to sign him. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports and the MLB Trade Rumors crew both have Hill pegged for a three-year, $50 million contract. But on one bright side, Hill isn’t tied to draft-pick compensation. Signing him will only cost money, which the Yankees have plenty of.

On another bright side, the risk of signing him does come with enough potential reward to justify it.

He hasn’t carved out that 2.00 ERA since 2015 by accident. He’s been among the league’s most aggressive strike-throwers with stuff that has featured more spin than any other starter’s offerings, per Baseball Savant. Thus, his rate of 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and .507 opponents’ OPS over the last two seasons.

In the short term, adding Hill would give the Yankees a fallback ace in case Tanaka opts out of his contract after 2017. Whether or not that happens, Hill would also help stabilize a rotation that should be welcoming prospects such as James Kaprielian, Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, Domingo Acevedo and Dillon Tate over the next two seasons.

In the longer term, Hill’s contract would come off the books at a convenient time. After 2019, Sanchez, Austin and Judge will be arbitration-eligible for the first time and due for big raises. Presumably, even more Yankees prospects will be ready for arbitration raises in ensuing years.

The one thing adding Hill wouldn’t necessarily do is put the Yankees in the World Series conversation for the next three seasons. But the attitude they must take is that staying relevant while keeping their dream of a long-term powerhouse alive would be good enough.

Hill may no longer be around by the time that powerhouse finally arrives. But if signing him proves to be instrumental in helping the team get there, the Yankees will be glad they did it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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It’s November. That means turkey, stuffing, pumpkin pie and Evan Longoria to the Los Angeles Dodgers rumors.

Here’s one, courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi:

OK, that’s less a rumor and more informed speculation. And maybe Longoria-to-L.A. talk isn’t quite as inevitable as Thanksgiving.

The Dodgers trading for Longoria makes a share of sense, though. It’s also not a new idea.

Rumblings about the Tampa Bay Rays third baseman heading to Southern California cropped up at the 2016 trade deadline, per Morosi. At the time, however, the Dodgers employed Justin Turner at the hot corner.

Now, Turner is a free agent. The Dodgers have a hole to fill. Cue the Longoria chatter.

“Our most acute needs as we head into the offseason are the roles previously occupied by our two free agents,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. “We have to figure out what we’re doing at third base, and figure out an anchor for the back of the pen.”

Longoria is more than just any third baseman. He’s a three-time All-Star coming off a superlative season that saw him hit .273 with a career-high 36 home runs and 98 RBI.

He has ties to Friedman, who was general manager in Tampa Bay when the then-Devil Rays drafted Longoria with the third overall pick in 2006. Plus, he was born and raised in SoCal.

Longoria has six years and about $100 million left on his deal, but the Dodgers have baseball’s highest payroll. The Rays will likely expect a strong return of young talent, but the Dodgers have a deep farm system.

The dots connect. In fact, it seems like a borderline perfect marriage.

Here’s the central question, though: Is Longoria preferable to Turner? The Dodgers could simply re-sign their old third baseman, after all.

To begin, let’s stack the two players’ 2016 stats next to each other:

There’s remarkable symmetry, especially when you consider both players are right-handed swingers who were born in Southern California within a year of each other.

If we zoom back a tad, however, Turner gains an edge.

Between 2014 and 2016, Turner’s WAR (12.8) was higher than Longoria’s (11.9) by FanGraphs’ measure. Turner has also been a superior defender over the past two seasons, posting a 16.7 ultimate zone rating compared to Longoria’s 7.7.

Turning to the projection systems, Steamer foretells a .263/.324/.460 slash line for Longoria and a .285/.354/.466 line for Turner in 2017. 

That’s not to suggest Longoria is chopped liver. He’d slot nicely into a Dodgers lineup that features reigning National League Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, powerful center fielder Joc Pederson and veteran pieces such as first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and catcher Yasmani Grandal. 

In terms of dollars, Turner should command more than the $13 million Longoria is owed in 2017 and may well eclipse his average annual value for the next few seasons in a weak free-agent class. Something in line with the five years, $95 million the Boston Red Sox gave Pablo Sandoval in 2014 seems attainable.

Longoria, on the other hand, will cost more than cash. The Dodgers will also have to part with high-upside prospects to land him.

The small-market Rays are always seeking to shed salary, but even if the Dodgers eat all the money, they’ll have to dip into their MiLB stash.

That’s where the scales truly tip toward Turner. If he and Longoria are roughly the same player, why give up payroll and trade chips for one when the other will require only money?

Los Angeles will have to battle other suitors, possibly including the archrival San Francisco Giants, per Morosi. 

The Dodgers should make Turner a priority, though, and consider Longoria a distant plan B. The best move isn’t always the splashiest or the one that commands the most headlines.

Sometimes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

To put it in Thanksgiving terms: Longoria is the stuffing, Turner is the turkey. Gobble, gobble.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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It’s been 21 years since Major League Baseball exited its last work stoppage.

Oh, how I’d love to tack an “and counting” on the end of that sentence. Instead, time may be counting down to baseball’s next work stoppage.

The majors’ collective bargaining agreement is due to expire Dec. 1. The thinking has long been that MLB and the MLB Players Association—in keeping with their recent history of peaceful relations—would hammer out a new agreement before then.

Not so fast, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Tuesday:

According to Rosenthal, the owners, represented by Commissioner Rob Manfred, are growing frustrated with the slow pace of discussions on the part of the players, represented by union chief Tony Clark. And so, they’re preparing to vote on a lockout if a new deal doesn’t materialize by deadline day.

This is obviously a threat, presumably leaked from the owners in an attempt to light a fire under the players. Such things tend to happen in situations like these. Perhaps the only surprise is that it came so late in the game.

But as late in the game as it is, there is still time. Counting Tuesday and deadline day, the two sides have 10 days to work something out.

“In terms of trying to make a deal, 10 days is plenty of time,” Manfred told Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

To boot, the Dec. 1 deadline is more of a target date than a true deadline. As Nathaniel Grow of FanGraphs noted last week, the league and the union can keep talking beyond that date if they so desire.

All the same, there’s no denying the tenor of the situation has changed. And not for the better.

While the owners may be frustrated with the pace of talks, the sticking points between the two sides are more specific.

According to Rosenthal, one involves the competitive balance tax. Another involves changes to the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.

The big one, however, is the idea for a draft for international amateurs. Manfred has been lobbying for that ever since he stepped into Bud Selig’s shoes in January 2015, typically with the same talking points.

“I am of the view that at some point, for the good of the game, for the good of competitive balance, we are going to have an international draft,” Manfred said last spring, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via MLB Trade Rumors).

Rosenthal reported the owners are willing to scrap the qualifying-offer system to get an international draft. At first, that would seem to be welcome news for the players.

After all, the qualifying-offer system has been a frequent source of controversy since it was implemented in 2012. Players who reject the one-year offers (valued at $17.2 million this winter) are tied to draft-pick compensation in free agency, which has been a major drain on some players’ value.

And yet, it seems the players aren’t motivated enough by the proposal to do away with qualifying offers to accept an international draft. Even though they’re not obligated to go to bat for the amateurs who would be affected, Rosenthal reported the players are strongly opposed to the idea.

Why? Because it’s not really about competitive balance, as Manfred said.

It’s about money. As Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote Nov. 11, an international draft would “give owners a systematic way to control their labor costs, meaning less money for players and more money for owners.”

The system MLB has in place for international amateurs assigns teams bonus pools that vary in size based on where they finished in the standings the prior season. Certainly, it’s not an ideal system.

But for now, it at least gives teams a chance to negotiate with any player they desire. That’s partially why some are willing to accept the penalties for exceeding their bonus pools. The most prominent example of that was when the Boston Red Sox broke the bank for Yoan Moncada in March 2015.

Meanwhile, consider the draft baseball does have. Its nature prohibits teams from negotiating with whomever they’d like to and, since 2012, has put limits on how much they can spend. For the owners, it’s a perfect cost-control system. No wonder they want to replicate it for international players.

Hypothetically, less money spent on amateurs means more money for owners to spend on established players. But the union must be aware that’s not how things have been playing out.

In fact, the players’ share of baseball’s pie has been trending downward at an alarming rate. As Grow covered last spring, player payroll has gone from a peak of 56 percent of the league’s total revenue in 2002 to just 38 percent in 2014. More and more, the wealth hasn’t been trickling down.

It’s not a matter of the money not being there. As reported by Maury Brown of Forbes, MLB revenues hit a new height of $9.5 billion last season. That was up from $9 billion in 2014.

What has changed is how teams prefer to spend their money.

They’re more wary of spending in free agency than they used to be. In the modern performance-enhancing drugs testing era, players tend to be near or past the end of their primes when they finally hit free agency. They’re not good long-term investments.

As for the young guys, their costs have been controlled for many years by the arbitration system. And even when they sign big-money extensions, they tend to be for far less than what they would have earned on the open market—see Mike Trout signing for six years and $144.5 million.

So while ditching qualifying offers in exchange for an international draft may seem like a fair trade, the players understandably aren’t convinced since the owners would swap out a relatively minor cost-control device for the latest in a series of major cost-control devices.

“We aren’t giving them something that affects 30 percent of big leaguers and probably 50 percent of minor leaguers in exchange for something that affects less than 20 players every year, especially guys who are staring $17 million in the face,” one source told Rosenthal.

Understand, all this bad noise doesn’t mean the players can’t be moved to make a deal before deadline day. As one source told Rosenthal, the remaining sticking points are “nothing that reasonable and creative people can’t resolve.”

But it’s also understandable why one player said the union “will fight” if pushed. The system hasn’t been unkind to players recently, but it’s been a lot kinder to the owners. Why roll over and let the trend continue?

If a lockout does happen, the good news for fans is that only the business side of the game would be interrupted. The hot-stove season would definitely get boring. But unlike the 1994-95 strike, no games would be in immediate danger. Much less the World Series.

The optics, however, would not be good. Baseball is swimming in cash, with strong attendance numbers and a smash-hit World Series in its wake. The sport is healthy.

Best not to let anything challenge that health.

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Major League Baseball owners and players are discussing a new collective bargaining agreement ahead of the Dec. 1 expiration of the current deal.

Continue for updates.

Latin American Players Reportedly Set to Fight Potential International Draft

Monday, Nov. 28

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported a “significant number” of Latin American players are expected to be at Monday’s bargaining session to fight the international draft.

Passan noted that “Latin representation at union meetings has been an issue in the past,” but the divisiveness of the issue “spurred interest.” Passan called the move a “bold play” by the players’ union, saying “the implication is it is putting a line in the sand” on the international draft.

MLB, Union Reportedly Make Progress in Talks

Wednesday, Nov. 23

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reported negotiations “have progressed this week, to the point where sources finally are expressing optimism that an agreement can be reached before owners impose a lockout.

“Two sources who had spoken with both sides told ESPN.com on Wednesday that they now sense there is ‘a path to a deal,’ following negotiations Tuesday that stretched into the night.” 

On Tuesday, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the owners were considering locking out the players if the two sides failed to agree on a new collective bargaining agreement before the current deal expires on Dec. 1.

Multiple Sticking Points Holding Up New CBA

Rosenthal noted such a move would end baseball’s streak of 21 straight years of labor peace.

A lockout in the offseason would impact roster decisions, such as free-agent signings and trades. Rosenthal did say the winter meetings could still happen from Dec. 4-8, but there wouldn’t be “the usual frenzy of major league activity.”

The threat of the lockout looms over Tony Clark, who heads the players’ union, and MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred in their first time in their current roles. Clark replaced the late Michael Weiner, but Rosenthal noted Manfred served as the lead negotiator for MLB in the last three collective bargaining agreements before taking over as commissioner.

Fans hoping the two sides can avoid a lockout can look toward Manfred’s recent history of serving as lead negotiator in times of labor peace as something of a positive. What’s more, the commissioner told Joel Sherman of the New York Post, “In terms of trying to make a deal, 10 days is plenty of time.”

Sherman also said the two sides negotiated until late Tuesday afternoon and will continue doing so while the players attend their annual meeting from Monday through Wednesday in Dallas.

According to Rosenthal, owners are frustrated with how slow the discussions from the players’ union have been, noting “a number of significant issues remain unresolved.” He also quoted an anonymous player who said, “We are not afraid of a lockout.”

Rosenthal broke down a few of the issues holding up negotiations, including draft-pick compensation and the potential implementation of an international draft.

In the current system, teams lose a draft pick when they sign a free agent who received a qualifying offer. If draft-pick compensation were removed, there would be unrestricted free agency and teams would theoretically be more willing to sign marquee players without fearing the loss of a draft pick.

According to Rosenthal, the owners offered to eliminate the draft-pick compensation if they could implement an international draft, but the players opposed the draft “in part because foreign-born amateurs do not have the same leverage and opportunities as their U.S.-born counterparts, including college.”

Rosenthal also pointed to the competitive-balance tax and the Joint Drug Agreement as other issues the two sides are “at odds over” as negotiations continue.

Despite the potential for a lockout, Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports’ Big League Stew cautioned that a week before the Dec. 1 deadline is the ideal time for a source on the owners’ side to leak the threat in hopes of players caving on some demands.

Cwik also acknowledged there is plenty of money at stake that could help a deal get done sooner rather than later. 

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Veteran catcher Jason Castro reached an agreement Tuesday with the Minnesota Twins on a new contract.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports cited a source and reported the news. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported that it was a three-year, $24.5 million deal.

Although Castro’s overall statistics, including a career .232 average, don’t jump off the page, it’s important to remember evaluating catchers requires grading on a curve. The number of impact hitters at the position is limited, which makes his power potential more valuable.   

The 29-year-old backstop has racked up double-digit home runs in four straight seasons despite not playing more than 126 games in any campaign. His best season came in 2013, when he finished with 18 long balls and a .350 on-base percentage.

Those types of numbers are hard to find at the catcher spot, and that created a little more intrigue around his status entering the offseason, though he had a .307 OBP with 11 homers in 2016.

In September, he didn’t rule out a return to the Astros, but he made it clear he wanted to explore the possibilities, per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle.

“It’s kind of a weird feeling coming down to the end here,” Castro said. “It’s been a great six-and-a-half years here, and I’ve really enjoyed everything about it. But the future’s kind of up in the air, so we’ll see what happens.”

In the end, Castro decided it was time for a change of scenery after spending his entire career so far in Houston. The Astros may look to move Evan Gattis behind the plate to fill the void because it’ll be easier to fill a hole at designated hitter than it would be at catcher.

Catchers always require some additional off days due to the wear and tear of the position, but Castro still needs to stay more involved to make the new deal pay off. He played in just 113 games last season, compared to 139 for the Kansas City Royals‘ Salvador Perez, a top-tier option.

That said, it’s still a solid investment for the Twins given the catcher’s power upside. They’d like to see him move back closer to those 2013 numbers going forward, though.

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Like the action on the field, Major League Baseball doesn’t always follow the offseason script outsiders anticipate.

Big-market clubs don’t always make the biggest splashes. And teams we expect to stay silent sometimes emerge as the offseason’s biggest surprises. So as we embark on a winter that could see an unusual number of trades, let’s take a look at which teams could come up with unexpected hot-stove moves.

Could those clubs end up doing the same once the 2017 season ends?

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Major League Baseball’s offseason has already seen some action, but things will pick up after Thanksgiving as every team and free agent prepares for the winter meetings in December. 

Even though players are free to sign deals right now, the marquee names are most likely to wait until everyone converges on Maryland, where it’s easy to get more people in a room to try to ignite a bidding war to drive up prices. 

While a lot of things will change even before the meetings start Dec. 4, here are the latest rumblings for some of this year’s top sluggers. 

Shopping at Napoli’s

Coming off two injury-plagued seasons in 2014-15, Mike Napoli’s days as an impact power hitter in the middle of a good lineup appeared to be over. 

After waiting until January to sign a one-year deal with the Cleveland Indians, Napoli proceeded to have a fine bounce-back season with career highs in games played (150), home runs (34) and RBI (101). 

Napoli has also become a cult figure in Cleveland thanks to the “Party at Napoli’s” rallying cry. With all of that going for him, it’s not a surprise the Indians want to bring him back next season. 

Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported on Sept. 29 that the team hopes to work out a deal with Napoli, while he’s seeking a multiyear deal. 

With free agency now in full swing, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the Houston Astros are taking a look at Napoli to fill their void at first base and designated hitter. 

Napoli, who turned 35 on Oct. 31, will likely be looking for something resembling long-term security coming off a solid 2016 season. He is a player with limitations that could hurt his market, notably on defense. FanGraphs calculated he cost the Indians four runs at first base in 2016. 

The Astros have already shown they are going all-in to win in 2017 by signing Josh Reddick and trading for Brian McCann. Signing Napoli would be another indication they aren’t going to wait around for the rest of the American League West to strike.

The Indians know the value Napoli brings to the middle of their order and in the clubhouse, but they may opt to use whatever money they have to spend this offseason to address a more pressing need—center field. 

With the Astros motivated and willing to spend money, they appear to be Napoli’s best bet for a new home in 2017. 

Prediction: Napoli signs with Astros

Encarnacion’s Market

The market for Napoli will surely be directly impacted by what happens with Edwin Encarnacion, who serves the same role as a power-hitting first baseman and designated hitter. 

The key difference is Encarnacion, despite turning 34 in January, is in position to ask for a deal of at least three or four years because he’s posted five straight seasons with at least a .350 on-base percentage and .500 slugging percentage. 

The Toronto Blue Jays, who have given Encarnacion a stage to showcase his hitting skills since 2010, appeared to be out of the market for the slugger after signing Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33 million deal. 

However, per Heyman, the Jays have made Encarnacion an offer of $80 million over four years.

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins told reporters last week (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca) that Morales’ presence would likely impact what they were able to do with Encarnacion:

“It makes things slightly less likely for Edwin, but doesn’t impact us on Jose (Bautista) in any way. We still feel that both are realistic for us. When you sign someone like Kendrys Morales, that does decrease the likelihood of Edwin coming back to the Blue Jays, but it by no means eliminates that possibility.”

The bad news for Toronto—which is good news for Encarnacion—is Heyman mentioned the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have also been connected to the three-time All-Star. 

The Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees have three of the deepest pockets in MLB. If Encarnacion’s camp is able to open up a bidding war that includes at least two of those teams, the Blue Jays would likely end up exceeding what money they have available. 

The Red Sox have always made the most sense as a landing spot for Encarnacion because David Ortiz retired and they need to find someone capable of providing the production Big Papi did. 

One advantage for the Red Sox is they have so much young position player talent that they can rotate into the DH spot if they don’t want to spend big money on a player entering his mid-30s. 

The Yankees don’t really make sense unless they believe competing for a playoff spot in 2017 is viable. The Rangers did lose Prince Fielder to retirement last season and Mitch Moreland had a .298 on-base percentage as the primary first baseman. 

Given how aggressive the Astros have already been this offseason, the Rangers need to issue a response of their own.

Spending big money on players over 30 has gotten them into some trouble recently, like trading for Fielder and signing Shin-Soo Choo, but Encarnacion doesn’t have to play a position to provide value and he’s appeared in at least 140 games four times in the last five seasons. 

Prediction: Encarnacion signs with Rangers

Bye-Bye, Joey Bats

Sticking with the Blue Jays, Bautista is their other big free agent who could end up going elsewhere. 

Despite what Atkins told reporters, Heyman reported on Thursday that the Jays “do not seem at all interested in Bautista beyond the draft pick they’ll be getting if/when he signs elsewhere.”

Bautista’s free agency is one of the most fascinating test cases of any player available this winter. He’s still a star in name, but his performance and body have started to break down in recent years.

Another problem for Bautista is age. He’s 36 years old and virtually incapable of playing in the outfield anymore, costing the Blue Jays eight runs by FanGraphs‘ metrics last season.

In February, TSN’s Rick Westhead reported Bautista was seeking $150 million over five years on his next contract. Bautista denied the report, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.

Whether Bautista wanted a deal like that, he will be lucky to get a contract with a total value of $50 million this offseason, and even that will only happen if he can find a team willing to give him three years. 

Heyman noted one rival agent told him Bautista should have accepted Toronto’s qualifying offer that would have paid him $17.2 million in 2017. It will likely be a higher average annual salary than the six-time All-Star will get elsewhere.

Trying to find a market for Bautista is especially difficult because if he can’t play a position—or even gets pushed to first base—the number of teams that might pursue him dwindles dramatically. 

Heyman reported on Nov. 10 that the Red Sox reached out to Bautista’s camp during the general manager meetings. 

Even though Bautista isn’t the hitter Encarnacion is at this point, he would actually be a better fit for the Red Sox. He likely isn’t going to cost as much in terms of years and dollars. He’s coming off an injury-marred 2016, so the Red Sox can shift him to DH in place of Ortiz and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. 

Plus, with all of Boston’s young talent already in place and other players like Yoan Moncada likely available at some point in 2017, the Red Sox don’t need Bautista to anchor their lineup because they can score 800 runs falling out of bed. 

Prediction: Bautista signs with Red Sox

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It’s only fitting that the trade chatter on baseball’s rumor mill has begun to look like the dinner table at Thanksgiving: A veritable smorgasbord of options to choose from for us to fill the empty space in our bellies or, in the case of our favorite teams, the empty spaces on their rosters.

From former Most Valuable Players and All-Star relievers to versatile veterans and still-developing youngsters, there seems to be at least one potential trade chip that could fill any need a team may have on the diamond.

Keep in mind these proposed deals are only ideas and speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication any of them have actually been discussed.

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In a winter during which aces are in short supply, the hot-stove trade market seems to revolve around Chris Sale.

And he’s not even the best thing on the market.

Let’s make a case for the Chicago White Sox’s other left-handed stud: Jose Quintana. He’s also good, and he may also be available as the White Sox seek to course-correct after four straight losing seasons.

“We aren’t approaching this offseason thinking we can make a couple of short-term tweaks to put us in position to win on a sustainable basis,” White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said Nov. 8, via Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. “We intend to make a firmer commitment to a direction to put ourselves in a better long-term position.”

Dating back to a September report from Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball, there’s been trade speculation about Sale and Quintana for a while now. But be warned: They may not be equals in terms of availability.

Buster Olney of ESPN.com reported Friday the White Sox are “willing to deal any player who has fewer than four years of team control.” With a contract with options through 2019, the 27-year-old Sale matches that description. With a contract with options through 2020, the also-27-year-old Quintana does not.

“It leads me to believe they’d like to hold on to him,” one GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe last week. “Sale was mentioned, [Carlos] Rodon was mentioned and all the others, but not Quintana.”

But with no true No. 1 starters available in free agency, it’s not hard to imagine the White Sox being overwhelmed enough by an offer for Quintana to say yes. Some teams may be even more interested in him than they are in Sale.

With $39.5 million owed to him over the next three years, Sale is affordable. With a maximum of $38.85 million—his 2020 option gets a boost if he wins or places high in Cy Young Award voting—owed to him, Quintana is just as affordable over the next four seasons. And keep in mind, he’s only about two months older than Sale.

Then there’s the matter of their talent.

Sale has a lot of that, earning five straight All-Star nods and four straight top-five Cy Young finishes on the strength of sizzling stuff and pinpoint command. But in terms of WAR, Quintana has been the more valuable pitcher in each of the last two seasons:

Quintana garnered that edge despite a lesser workload, as he’s pitched 414.1 innings to Sale’s 435.1. But Quintana has been more effective, posting a 3.28 ERA to Sale’s 3.37 ERA.

Sale obviously can’t blame the ballpark he pitches in, the defense he pitches in front of or the competition he pitches to for those disadvantages. Other teams know that.

It’d also be fair for them to question if the divide between Sale and Quintana could get bigger going forward.

Sale opened the door enough in 2016 for doubts to creep in, after all. His strikeout rate went from trending ever upward to plummeting to “just” 9.3 per nine innings. He also lost nearly two mph off his average fastball from the year before, going from 94.5 mph to 92.8 mph.

Sale said in May that this was by design, telling Scott Merkin of MLB.com that “not throwing every single pitch as hard as I can every inning” was a change he wanted to make.

But as he gets closer to the big 3-0, the fear has to be that Sale could lose even more velocity and tumble further from his days as a strikeout specialist. How he would fare as a pitch-to-contact guy with less than electrifying stuff is a big unknown.

Meanwhile, such an unknown doesn’t exist with Quintana.

While Sale’s velocity has become a question mark, Quintana’s velocity held steady in the mid-91 mph range from 2013 to 2015 before peaking at 92.1 mph in 2016. That’s a sign he hasn’t already used all his best bullets.

Arguably just as good of a sign is that increased velocity hasn’t made Quintana accustomed to a strikeout habit he might not maintain. He’s better than he used to be, but he’s only been about an average strikeout artist since 2013. For the most part, he gets by on command and deception instead.

His 2.0 walks per nine innings since 2014 provides a picture of how good his command has become. Brooks Baseball provides additional pictures, showing how he works one side of the zone with his four-seamer and the other with his sinker and how he buries his curveballs below the knees.

As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs highlighted in May, one thing Quintana’s curve has going for it is a massive velocity difference from his fastball. It was 14.4 mph in 2016. That makes it better than the average hook when it comes to changing speeds, which is yet another challenge hitters must overcome.

Beyond the decent amount of whiffs he gets, one of the benefits of Quintana’s approach is good contact management. Per Baseball Savant, he’s been especially better than average at stifling hard contact on fly balls and line drives over the last two seasons:

This explains not just how Quintana keeps the ball in the yard so well, but also why his contact-heavy approach wasn’t sunk by a bad White Sox defense in 2015 or a mediocre White Sox defense in 2016.

Long story short: Quintana doesn’t need to miss bats to be a hard guy to hit. His excellence is not based on the dominance of his stuff, a la Sale, but instead on how he uses it. That’s something he should keep up even as he ages over the next four seasons.

Mind you, the price to acquire those four seasons isn’t going to be cheap. Last week, I explored how the White Sox are in a position to demand a collection of elite prospects in a Sale trade. Quintana’s talent and the extra year on his contract put them in a position to demand even more for the Colombia native.

The trade-off, if you will, is a chance to get an equally good pitcher for longer. If Quintana ages as well as he should, it could even mean getting a better pitcher for longer.

Sounds like a good deal, no?

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Justin Verlander and Boston Red Sox fans may not be on the best terms right now. After Verlander lost the American League Cy Young Award to Boston sinkerballer Rick Porcello, Verlander’s fiancee, Kate Upton, voiced her displeasure via Twitter [warning: NSFW language].

While Upton’s and, subsequently, Verlander’s beef was mostly with the Baseball Writers’ Association of America voters, Porcello and Sox nation were unavoidably swept up in the controversy. 

Here’s something that would surely quash the issue: Verlander suiting up for the Red Sox next season.

It’s only speculation at this point. We know, however, that the Detroit Tigers are “open-minded” about trading veterans to shed payroll, as general manager Al Avila said on MLB Now (via MLB.com). 

“I’ve talked to all the guys,” Avila said. “[Miguel] Cabrera and Verlander and [Ian] Kinsler and guys like that just to let them know, this is just the way it is. It’s part of the business. But not to worry about anything unless I call them.”

Translating from GM speak: The Tigers are open for business.

Verlander should have multiple suitors. The pool of free-agent starting pitchers is comically shallow. And the 33-year-old right-hander is coming off an excellent season that saw him post a 3.04 ERA in 227.2 innings with an AL-leading 254 strikeouts. 

He’s owed $28 million annually through 2019 with a $22 million vesting option for 2020, so he isn’t exactly cheap. Detroit won’t be willing to give him away, either. The Tigers will surely expect some legitimate young talent in return.

Enter Boston, which has a robust payroll, a deep minor league system and ties to Verlander via its front office.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was at the helm in Detroit when the Tigers drafted Verlander in 2004 and was also there in 2013 when Verlander signed a five-year extension.

At the time, Dombrowski praised Verlander’s stuff and durability and labeled him “one of the premier pitchers in baseball,” per MLB.com’s Jason Beck. 

Verlander’s ERA ballooned to 4.54 in 2014, and he threw a career-low 133.1 innings while battling a triceps injury in 2015.

His 2016 bounce-back, though, should ease concerns about a decline. We’re talking about a six-time All-Star who won the AL Cy Young and MVP awards in 2011.

Velocity isn’t everything, but Verlander’s average fastball sat at 93.7 mph last season, his highest mark since 2013.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe listed the Red Sox as a possible landing spot for both Verlander and Cabrera. Boston has a David Ortiz-sized hole in the middle of its lineup, so Cabrera makes some sense.

The Red Sox could find an Ortiz proxy on the free-agent market, however. Edwin Encarnacion seems like a fit. Or there’s reigning MLB home run leader Mark Trumbo. 

To get a top-shelf starting pitcher this winter, it’s the trade route or bust.

Boston’s rotation is headlined by Porcello and left-hander David Price.

Porcello posted Cy Young-caliber numbers (sorry, Kate), going 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA. Price was a mixed bag after signing a seven-year, $217 million contract. He led MLB with 230 innings and struck out 228, but he also paced baseball with 227 hits allowed and surrendered a career-high 30 homers.

Knuckleballer Steven Wright posted a 2.86 first-half ERA but landed on the disabled list in September with shoulder issues and missed the remainder of the season and the division series.

Young left-handers Eduardo Rodriguez (4.71 ERA in 107 innings in 2016), Henry Owens (5.19 ERA in 16 career big league starts) and 32-year-old right-hander Clay Buchholz (4.78 ERA in 139.1 innings in 2016) round out the crop of possible starters. 

If the Red Sox add a bat to an enviable offensive core that includes 24-year-old AL MVP runner-up Mookie Betts and All-Stars Xander Bogaerts (age 24) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (age 26), the current starting rotation should keep them competitive. 

With Verlander, though, Boston would vault into the firmament of surefire championship contenders. Here, let’s stack Verlander, Porcello and Price’s 2016 stats next to each other:

That’s three of the AL’s top seven starting pitchers by WAR, to use a simple bit of statistical shorthand. If Price bounced back to the form that made him the Cy Young runner-up in 2015 or that won him the prize in 2012, look out.

It’s unclear exactly what Boston would have to part with from a farm system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 4 in the game. If the Sox were willing to eat all or most of Verlander’s salary, they should be able to keep untouchable names like infielder Yoan Moncada and outfielder Andrew Benintendi off the negotiating table.

Boston could also pursue another ace, like the Chicago White Sox’s Chris Sale, who is six years younger than Verlander and locked into a more affordable contract. The asking price for Sale, though, might include the Sox’s top prospects as a starting point.

Oh, and consider this: Verlander owns a 3.39 ERA in 98.1 postseason innings and has a well-earned reputation as a big-game pitcher. The same can’t be said for Porcello (5.66 career postseason ERA) or Price (5.54 career postseason ERA).

The Cleveland Indians are the defending AL champs until further notice. The Texas Rangers and retooling Houston Astros will make noise out West. The East, too, is competitive, with the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays coming off wild-card berths and the suddenly nimble New York Yankees laden with young talent. 

Boston, however, can gain separation. Yes, the Red Sox have shown indications of playing it safe this offseason, as I recently noted. Landing Verlander may prove too tempting to resist, however.

At the very least, it would put those angry tweets squarely in the rear view.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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