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2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers Include Blue Jays Slugging Second Baseman

Coming into the 2010 season, few second basemen were as highly regarded in fantasy circles as Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Aaron Hill, and with good reason. He was fresh off a breakout campaign in which he hit .286 with 36 home runs and 108 RBI, as well as scoring an impressive 103 runs. 

However, things quickly hit the skids for Hill last season, as his batting average was barely above the Mendoza line, and his runs scored and on-base percentage were both at career low levels. He still hit 26 home runs, but the .205 average forced many a wary owner to cut Hill loose, and he enters 2011 as a mid-draft pickup in most leagues, if not later than that. 

So, what do we make of Hill’s sudden inability to get on base? Was it just an outlier season, an exception to the rule, or the start of something much more frightening for owners? 

Given Hill’s anemic batting average on balls in play last season, which was just .196, there are indicators that perhaps he was the victim of the worst luck baseball had seen last year. He was finding a lot of gloves, and because of that, his average bottomed out. 

Will Hill hit .300? No; even in his breakout campaign of 2009, Hill hit .286, and he’s never hit .300 in the big leagues. 

But, given his terrible BABIP and the fact that there was nothing really wrong with the second baseman’s swing, you can bet he’ll deliver another fantastic season in 2011, and with second base so thin this year, he’s well worth the risk. 

Expect an average in the .280 range and between 25 and 30 home runs from Hill, as he bounces back from what was a miserable campaign. 

For more baseball news, check out MLB Predictions 2011: Division Winners and Breakout Stars to Watch.