Every year there is a player who just gets off to an unbelievable start, like Chris Coghlan in 2009.
But fantasy owners need to be careful about these players before they go and completely change their teams. In most cases, those players who get off to hot starts will drop off, back to the mid-200s by the middle of year.
When looking to change your team, either through free agency or trades, look for consistency and trends in past seasons. Players will normally follow a similar pattern.
Roy Oswalt is a perfect example of this. In most seasons, he struggles during the first half of the season, causing many owners to go so far as to drop or trade him. However, when it comes to the second half of the season, Oswalt is one of the best pitchers in baseball and in the past could be added through free agency in most leagues.
Every year there will be some fluke players, like Paul Konerko last season, who ends up being one of the best players in baseball. But overall, when you look at the players with the hot starts, they are not worth the risk.
Kendrys Morales is someone who you might be able to steal early on. Despite starting the season on the disabled list, Morales was one of the most underrated power hitters before his injury last year. If he struggles when he comes back at first, look for a lot of people to drop him or try and trade him for a lot less then he’s worth.
The same argument can be made for your own players who start out hot. People with Jose Bautista or Jason Heyward on their teams may want to look at dealing them early if they start the season hot.
Bautista in the past has shown he’s a middle of the road type player and now has even less offensive support in Toronto. Also, he’s not going to sneak up on anyone this season.
With Heyward, I know he has looked promising. However, the sophomore slump almost always hits players and I wouldn’t be surprised if Heyward falls into that trap. Also, Atlanta has a strong lineup, so there won’t be the pressure on him to turn it around mid-year if he ends up struggling.
As an owner, there is always panic when your team struggles and you feel the need to make changes. But just step back, take a breath and believe in your team. If you get to early- or mid-June and are still struggling, then it might worth making the changes, but don’t jump on the early star.
By Trey Nelson
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