Josh Beckett and John Lackey were both treated to lavish paydays last season. To say that neither of them lived up to their deals in 2010 would be a colossal understatement.
Lackey inked a five-year, $82.5 million deal when he signed with Boston in December 2009. Beckett and the Sox agreed to a four-year, $68 million extension last April.
Both pitchers then went out and combined for a 20-17 record, a 4.91 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.
Not exactly the stuff that wins Cy Youngs, huh?
Let it be said that Lackey was not as awful as Beckett. “Big John” did manage to lead the team last year in both quality starts (21) and innings pitched (215).
Beckett, however, presents a different story. It’s hard to imagine him being any worse than he was last year.
His alarming 10.6 H/9 was a whole two hits above his career H/9 figure. His 1.54 WHIP easily surpassed his previous career worst, a 1.32 mark in 2003.
So, what gives in 2011?
Both pitchers can fall back on legitimate excuses, though neither would ever do so publicly.
Lackey could offer that he was adjusting to a new city and a new division. He could point to Beckett, citing his ghastly 2006 which he followed up with a brilliant 2007.
Lackey just genuinely never looked like himself last year. He struggled all season with a new approach to his fastball, using his cutter almost exclusively over his four-seamer.
The cutter, which Lackey seldom ever threw before 2010, accounted for a whopping 41.9 percent of his pitches last year.
On the other hand, his the four-seamer, which Lackey had gone to over half the time in his three previous seasons, accounted for only 15.2 percent of his pitches in 2010. (FanGraphs)
Beckett, meanwhile, battled injury much of last year. He missed two months with a lower back strain, finally going on the DL in late May after a horrific start to the season.
Prior to his DL stint, Beckett was 1-1 in eight games with a 7.29 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. After coming back in late July, Beckett went 5-5 in 13 starts with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.
Not exactly a massive turnaround, but the difference nonetheless signals some sort of improvement and righting of the ship.
Like Lackey, Beckett’s 2010 reveals an usual pitch-selection breakdown. He used his four-seamer less than half as often as he normally does, and he also got away from using his good curveball.
Instead, Beckett went with his two-seamer, cutter and change-up more often than he ever had before. (FanGraphs)
As the Red Sox get ready to head to Texas to open the 2011 regular season, both Lackey and Beckett remain question marks, particularly Beckett, who has had a rough spring.
In the meantime, the Red Sox are blessed to have Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz both locked up through 2014 at deals that are far more club-friendly than Lackey and Beckett’s contracts.
Moreover, if the younger of the two pitching duos continues to turn in Cy Young-worthy seasons, any misgivings and whining from fans concerning Lackey and/or Beckett is much minimized, for whatever that’s worth.
Aside from their respective on-field performance, it is still simply quite baffling that GM Theo Epstein handed Lackey and then Beckett the kind of contracts he did.
For these two pitchers, talented as they have been, to obtain the kind of deals they each did is stunning, given their ages, their abilities and the overall arcs of their respective careers.
Yet, one does not even need to parse apart these two as individuals; Beckett and Lackey each track near the top of the other’s comparison charts on Baseball-Reference.
Lackey and Beckett are big-game pitchers. They’re grinders. They’re innings eaters. They’re World Series winners. They are both never particularly stunning during the regular season, however both have October reputations that are well-deserved.
But are Beckett and Lackey great? Were they ever great?
Never mind greatness, the bottom line may just be that both are not even good anymore.
Some good indicators from last year though may point towards smoother 2011 seasons for these two.
Yet, the fact remains that if these two big-game Texans are ever going to live up to their XL contracts, it starts now.
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