Who is the one guy that you would select if you’re fortunate enough to have the first pick in your fantasy baseball draft?
Before you answer that question, I’d love to hear how many people would have selected 2011’s fantasy monsters: Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Jose Bautista at the beginning of last year.
Maybe a few, but it’s surely not as many that will be looking their way now. If you take injuries in football out of the equation, baseball is the trickiest sport of all to predict fantasy studs. There just aren’t a ton of guys who are monsters year in and year out.
As I think about the guys that project as must-haves in fantasy baseball 2012, I think about my favorites to contend for league MVP. Mind you, this is my projected list, you may pull up your fantasy machine database and see a different ranking.
In my eyes, the players that will do the most damage statistically and contend for hardware at the season’s end are as follows:
1. Matt Kemp – Brian’s Stat Prediction: .325 BA, 39 HR, 114 RBI and 40 SB
Kemp is the best player in the majors and I thought he deserved the MVP last season. I’m always a fan of giving the MVP to the best player if his team is over .500.
At 27 years old, there is no age concern and he isn’t hampered by injuries. In fact, he’s missed only 11 games over the past four seasons. Kemp is primed for another ridiculous season. If you get the first pick in your draft, you better punch No. 27.
2. Justin Verlander – Brian’s Stat Prediction: 24-4, 280 K, ERA 2.05
The AL Cy Young and reigning MVP will be right back at the top of both categories again in 2012. Looking for a Cy Young/MVP hangover?
I don’t think you’re going to find it here. So far this spring Verlander has dominated with a 0.93 ERA and 13:1 K:BB ratio in 9.1 innings.
Last year he won 24 games. I’m almost crazy enough to say that total will go up with Prince Fielder and a improving Austin Jackson on the roster, but I will hold off on that prediction and say that he’ll at least equal that total and anchor your fantasy squad.
3. Alex Rodriguez – Brian’s Stat Prediction: .279, 40 HR, 130 RBI
Say what you want about A-Rod, but when he’s healthy he is as automatic as anyone in the majors. Rodriguez is healthy now, and I believe he will have one more monster season in his illustrious career.
He’s 36 and injuries have limited him over the past three seasons. However, he’s never hit less than 40 HR in any season that he’s played at least 145 games. He has never had less than 100 RBI in any season where he’s played that often, either.
The Yankees lineup is stacked as usual, and the RBI opportunities will be there.
With A-Rod, it’s not about down years, it’s about if he’s healthy or injured. I believe he will be healthy this season and that will render big-time results.
4. Jose Bautista – Brian’s Stat Prediction: .280, 38 HR, 95 RBI
Bautista made the transition from slugger to all-around hitter last season. His averaged jumped 42 points, as he drew a league leading 132 walks. The Jays don’t have adequate protection for him in the lineup. If they did, his numbers would be even better.
Still, he has proven that he is no fluke and you can’t go wrong with him, especially considering the increased OBP with the walks.
5. Clayton Kershaw – Brian’s Stat Prediction: 20-6, 250 K, ERA 2.89
Kershaw is only 24 years old and is just moving into his prime as a pitcher. The NL Cy Young will be among the major’s best again.
6. Albert Pujols – Brian’s Stat Prediction: .315, 34 HR, 100 RBI
Albert will have a very solid year, but something tells me it won’t quite reach the MVP front-running totals some might expect. There is a lot of pressure to perform now.
7. Jacoby Ellsbury – Brian’s Stat Prediction: .325, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 39 SB
Ellsbury is the second-best CF in the majors. Were it not for Kemp, he’d probably be the best.
8. Miguel Cabrera – Brian’s Stat Prediction: .320, 35 HR, 115 RBI
Miggy took a shot to the face from a line drive in the spring. He was lucky to have escaped a career-threatening injury. He is one of the major’s best all-around hitters. If he had speed and wasn’t on the same team as Verlander, he’d be a stronger MVP candidate.
9. Hunter Pence – Brian’s Stat Prediction: .315, 24 HR, 100 RBI, 20 SB
Pence is in a great position to have a huge year. He will likely fill in for Ryan Howard as a major run producer in the lineup while the big man is hurt.
10. Craig Kimbrel – Brian’s Stat Prediction: 50 Saves, 150 K
Young Mr. Kimbrel is just getting started. He’s only 23 years old, yet he tied for the NL lead in saves and struck out 127 in only 77 IP in 2011.
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