Even though free agency in Major League Baseball is one of the most exciting times of the year for fans and players, it’s also one of the most painful and arduous if you fall into the former category.
There’s so much hearsay and speculation about where an impact hitter or pitcher could end up that it only leads to heartbreak when the dreaded “mystery team” shows up to spoil everything.
Of course, fans of smaller-market teams have grown accustomed to the pain of free agency. Even great-run franchises, like the Kansas City Royals, have to know that Johnny Cueto‘s potential asking price will be far more than they can afford.
Yet for all the pain that can come with free agency, the winter is when fans are at their most optimistic because all 30 teams are making moves, large or small, to make that postseason push and hopefully play for a World Series in 2016.
Taking a look at the list of free agents this offseason, it’s going to be a busy and expensive time for a lot of teams.
Note: Players with options (Zack Greinke, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, etc.) are not included on free-agent list.
There are a lot of names, both at the top and secondary guys, who should provide great value both in 2016 and beyond.
Looking at the potential market for all of the stars, these are the few who appear to be locks to sign with a new team this winter.
Johnny Cueto, RHP (Kansas City Royals)
No free agent this winter will be as frustrating to figure out as Cueto. The right-hander has shown in the past he can be dominant, boasting two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young voting (2012, 2014).
However, there are a lot of maddening stretches with Cueto where he’s either unable to pitch due to injury or looks pedestrian.
Take for instance the stark contrast between what Cueto has done in 2015 with Cincinnati and Kansas City:
Basically, Cueto has provided the same value in Kansas City that a replacement-level pitcher would have. It is a small sample size, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.55 is actually better than what it was with the Reds (4.14).
The postseason will really determine if Cueto is going to be the second- or third-best pitcher available. David Price is a lock in the top spot and seems likely to get a near-record deal. Jordan Zimmermann is in the mix with Cueto for that second spot.
Last year, the Royals knew they likely weren’t going to re-sign James Shields, but it likely became easier to let him walk when he posted a 6.12 ERA in the playoffs.
Cueto also has to fight against being short. He’s a 5’9″ right-hander, and that kind of pitcher doesn’t traditionally age well. Tim Lincecum (5’11”) was basically done at the age of 28.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote on Sunday that there are teams that have concerns about Cueto‘s ability to stay healthy over the course of an entire season.
“He’ll have to convince shoppers this offseason that he’s physically fine,” Cafardo wrote. “There will likely be a lot of medical attention devoted to Cueto. One AL executive stayed away from Cueto at the trade deadline because of a possible elbow issue.”
The hope for a team will be that Cueto is on the Pedro Martinez career arc, in which Martinez stayed at an All-Star level through his age-33 season before injuries took away what made him great.
However, that’s not exactly the kind of player who figures to get a huge six- or seven-year deal. Cueto could do well on a four-year deal with some kind of vesting option for a fifth year based on number of starts and/or innings pitched.
That makes finding a potential suitor difficult, especially since the major-market teams in need of pitching all figure to be in on Price and Zimmermann.
One team that makes sense is San Francisco. The Giants will have at least two holes in the rotation to fill with Tim Hudson retiring and the Lincecum era likely ending, but they also have free agents like Ryan Vogelsong and Mike Leake to worry about.
Madison Bumgarner is the only safe bet to be in the Giants rotation next season. Chris Heston is a back-end starter, at best, and Jake Peavy, 34, really doesn’t offer much at this stage of his career.
Even if Leake re-signs, the Giants still need a strong No. 2 starter to plug in behind Bumgarner. Cueto could thrive back in the National League in a big park with a solid defense behind him.
San Francisco has about $57 million coming off the payroll this offseason, before factoring in arbitration-eligible players, so general manager Brian Sabean should have plenty of room to play with. This franchise has won three titles since 2010 largely around great starting pitching and solid offense.
Prediction: Cueto signs with Giants for four years, $110 million.
Justin Upton, LF (San Diego Padres)
Even though the San Diego Padres’ spending extravaganza last winter turned out to be a bust, Justin Upton’s performance in 2015 might actually work in his favor.
That’s unusual to say because Upton’s .790 OPS will be his worst in a full season, but a deeper dive into the numbers shows how impressive the 28-year-old has actually been.
Upton’s biggest problem in 2015 has been hitting left-handed pitching (.191/.258/.300), but that doesn’t line up with what he’s done throughout his career against southpaws (.273/.380/.506). This seems like one of those weird one-year outliers that can happen in baseball.
Another reason to be optimistic about Upton’s future is playing in Petco Park is a hitter’s nightmare, yet he’s still slugging .454 overall and has hit 15 of his 26 homers at home. Putting him in a different park should easily get him into 30-homer territory for the first time since 2011.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com in August that the team will look to keep Upton beyond this season.
“He’s definitely going to be one of the options we talk about,” Preller said. “He’s made a very positive impression here. We’re going to sit down in the offseason and see what we can do with him.”
Unless the Padres just dwarf every other offer, it’s hard to see a scenario in which Upton returns.
Instead, let’s look at the other side of the country with the Baltimore Orioles losing virtually their entire roster this winter. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, before factoring in arbitration-eligible players, $77 million is coming off the payroll.
The Orioles have to remake their roster this winter, though they will have core players like Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Kevin Gausman to work with. Gausman‘s development as a starter next season will be critical because there is no pitching coming.
Top prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey can’t stay healthy, so their potential arrival in the big leagues is a mystery. Baltimore’s front office will likely prioritize starting pitching over offense, but Orioles’ left fielders in 2015 have a combined slash line of .212/.289/.352.
Even better news is no one else in the American League East should be seeking help in left field. New York has Brett Gardner. Boston is building around a slew of young outfielders. Toronto has Ben Revere for another two years. Tampa Bay can’t afford Upton, even if it wanted to make an offer.
Prediction: Upton signs with Orioles for six years, $115 million.
Doug Fister, RHP (Washington Nationals)
Doug Fister is a free agent I wanted to include because he’s going to be a pitcher every team has a chance to sign. The 31-year-old has been bad this season, which works to the advantage of teams.
For the first time since 2010, Fister will finish a season with a below-average ERA+ (95), and he does have injury concerns after spending time on the disabled list each of the last two seasons. He’s been taken out of Washington’s rotation, making one start since August.
James Wagner of the Washington Post did rave about Fister‘s two-inning relief stint against Baltimore on Sept. 22:
An effective sinker from Fister is what teams want to see at this late date. He’s never been a huge strikeout pitcher, so keeping the ball on the ground is what he needs to do. His ground-ball rate this year of 44.6 percent will be his lowest since his rookie season in 2009.
Given the way everything has fallen apart for Fister in 2015, he seems like a candidate to sign a one-year, incentive-laden deal and hit the market again next winter to get one long-term deal before his prime years pass by.
If that turns out to be the case, the field is open for all 30 teams to get in on the bidding. A perfect landing spot for the right-hander would be Kansas City.
The Royals should be looking for starting pitching for the second consecutive offseason. A team can only count on Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Kris Medlen and Chris Young for so long.
Fister‘s knack for letting hitters put the ball in play would fit beautifully with the Royals because of how great the defense is. They’ve proven this year that it’s possible to be a great team without a starter whom anyone would classify as a quality No. 1 or 2 on a playoff team. (Cueto does fit in that category, though he played most of this season with Cincinnati.)
Since the Royals can’t play with the major-market teams, they have to find bargains wherever possible. Their philosophy of building around speed on offense and a defense that can cover a ton of ground will appeal to many ground-ball-type pitchers whose overall talent won’t get them a huge contract.
Prediction: Fister signs with the Royals for one year, $10 million.
Stats via Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.
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