Two days into the 2016 MLB draft, a handful of franchises must hope fortune will favor the bold.
In a class lacking can’t-miss phenoms, teams searching for difference-makers were forced to roll the dice and accept a substantial amount of risk. Health hurdles, off-field issues and signing concerns caused top talents to plummet down the board until daring organizations swung for the fences.
A fair professor would wait until 2020 or later to grade all 30 teams. Looking back at 2013’s draft, everyone still gets an incomplete beside the Chicago Cubs, who earn an A-plus for snagging Kris Bryant with the No. 2 overall selection.
The internet, however, is not a fair place, so let’s jump the gun and assemble immediate assessments for each franchise. Full information is available on MLB.com.
Boldest Picks
San Diego Padres: SP Cal Quantrill (Pick No. 8)
Pitchers get hurt far too often for anyone’s liking. This could cause cautious teams to avoid spending precious draft capital on hurlers, but it could also add incentive to stockpile as many promising arms as possible.
Realizing nobody can avoid the inevitable, the San Diego Padres used their first pick on a pitcher who has already undergone Tommy John surgery.
Stanford’s Cal Quantrill sat out an entire season after undergoing the procedure to repair his pitching elbow on March 20, 2015. According to ESPN’s Keith Law, the righty could have gone far higher if not for that major setback:
He submitted a 2.57 ERA in 129.1 innings at Stanford, compiling 118 strikeouts to 42 walks. Per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, the Padres won’t have to wait around for his debut.
The Canadian prospect wisely didn’t risk returning and re-aggravating his throwing elbow before the draft. Yet it took guts for the Padres to spend a top-10 pick on someone who hasn’t pitched in nearly 15 months. Considering it also held the No. 24 and 25 picks, they must have felt someone else would have gladly taken the plunge instead.
Tommy John surgery is commonplace, and it has saved several careers, with pitchers returning without missing a beat. It’s also far from a perfect cure. For every Jose Fernandez and Stephen Strasburg there’s a Josh Johnson and Kerry Wood who never came back the same.
San Diego took the ultimate risk-reward gambit on a potential ace. Like many of the team’s past moves, it could pay major dividends or blow up in its face.
Boston Red Sox: SP Jason Groome (Pick No. 12)
Like Quantrill, Jason Groome was also once considered a legitimate candidate for the No. 1 pick. The Boston Red Sox landed the player with the highest ceiling when the high-school southpaw fell into their laps at No. 12.
It’s either the steal of the draft or a wasted selection.
Before the draft, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis reported the New Jersey native changed his college commitment from Vanderbilt to Chipola College, a junior college in Florida. By going to the two-year school, he can declare for the draft after his freshman or sophomore year. At a four-year university, he’d need to wait three years.
This maneuvering gives him signing leverage, as the 17-year-old can try again next year if Boston doesn’t meet his demands. According to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, he still wants to be paid like a top pick despite sliding outside the top 10:
MLB.com rated him as the class’ top prospect. Already a menacing presence on the mound, he wields a mid-90s heater and deadly curve that Law described as the best he has seen since Washington Nationals prospect Lucas Giolito.
Mitigating some risk, the Red Sox would receive a compensatory pick at the end of next year’s opening round if Groome doesn’t sign. It’s a chance worth taking for a potential star.
St. Louis Cardinals: SS Delvin Perez (Pick No. 23)
Delvin Perez is a top-tier talent once considered a probable top-five selection. After Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported he failed a drug test, he tumbled all the way to No. 23.
Some will call the St. Louis Cardinals shrewd for snagging the 17-year-old shortstop far below his original market value. Others, however, will raise an ethical red flag in protest of the Red Birds’ choice.
As seen in the video above, Harold Reynolds lambasted the Cardinals for the selection during MLB Network’s broadcast, calling it “a bad message for baseball.”
Per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak explained his organization’s thought process.
“Our takeaway on this is that we understand he made a mistake,” Mozeliak said. “We understand that he realizes that this cost him a lot. But he also realizes that at 17, his future is still ahead of him. What we tried to decide basically is, ‘Are we willing to forgive?'”
St. Louis’ starting shortstop, Jhonny Peralta, tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs three years ago, shortly before signing with the Cardinals. Nelson Cruz has become one of baseball’s best sluggers since his 50-game ban. Those veterans were given a second chance, so why blacklist a teenager?
Few critics will dislike this pick for reasons outside of his PED use. The Puerto Rican prospect brandishes an elite glove and quick bat that are advanced for his age. Let’s slow down with the Carlos Correa comparisons, but his talent proved enough that St. Louis was willing to handle the resulting backlash.
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