The Fall Classic is upon us, pitting two teams each ripe with key contributors set to hit the free-agent market this offseason.
The success of the Kansas City Royals and New York Mets is the result of long-term development within their respective farm systems. As such, they’ve been able to lock up players at financially friendly costs over the first few years of their careers.
The Royals and Mets, respectively, rank 14th and 15th in MLB payroll and may be limited in retaining some of their top free agents—some of whom are expected to command nine-figure deals, which generally aren’t within these respective teams’ budgets.
Here’s a look at who is set to hit the market for each team and how there could be a shuffle among the American and National League champions.
Kansas City Royals
The blue chip is starting pitcher Johnny Cueto, acquired near the trade deadline with likely intentions of parting ways following a hopeful playoff run. He had a muddled second half, which carried over to the postseason, as shown by ESPN Stats & Info:
But Cueto is still expected to command a five- to six-year deal worth at least $150 million—well outside the Royals’ budget. He turns 30 in February, an age general managers always say they’re wary to sign long-term deals for pitchers, yet those with high payrolls generally do so anyway. Cueto has been linked to the Red Sox and Marlins, among others, but he likely won’t return to Kansas City.
Outfielder Ben Zobrist was another playoff-push acquisition who’s given the Royals a better return on their investment. Zobrist boasts a postseason slash line of .326/.375/.558 with two home runs, six RBI and just four strikeouts in 43 at-bats. Given his versatility as a strong defender, he should likely earn at least a three-year deal wherever he lands, per Yahoo’s Jeff Passan:
If Chase Headley, Omar Infante, Chone Figgins, Luis Castillo and Julio Lugo each got four, Zobrist – a superior player to all, with the sort of versatility so many smart teams today covet – should be able to do the same.
Age will be a factor for the 34-year-old Zobrist, but only in dollars. He collected $2.8 million this option year, carried over from his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, and the Royals would be smart to fork over what should be a modest contract.
That’s not the case for outfielder Alex Rios, whose one-year guaranteed deal is up, leaving the Royals with the decision to exercise the mutual option for $12.5 million or buy out his contract for $1.5 million. The latter may be the logical choice. In 105 games, Rios hit four home runs and knocked in 32 RBI while hitting .255, well below his career mark of .277. The Royals should be able to find a more reliable and cost-friendly outfielder this winter.
New York Mets
The Mets will likely lose their two pivotal offensive contributors this winter in Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes.
Murphy has scorched through the playoffs, hitting .421/.436/1.026 in nine games, highlighted by six homers in consecutive games, an MLB record. Bleacher Report captured his dominance over the Chicago Cubs (h/t MLB Memes):
But no matter how much his remarkable streak stretches, “it changes nothing” in the team’s plans to move on from the veteran infielder, one team source told Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.
The Mets, per Ackert, are confident that rookie Dilson Herrera, 21, will develop into their long-term second baseman, and plans to keep Murphy as insurance for oft-injured third baseman David Wright and inconsistent first baseman Lucas Duda—two positions in which Murphy is comfortable—are not in the cards due to cost.
Murphy’s defensive versatility and upward trend of these playoffs makes him an attractive commodity with financially friendly teams, such as the Orioles, Angels, Astros, Dodgers, Padres and Tigers, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. One AL GM told Cafardo he expects Murphy will have no trouble landing a well-paying deal with long-term stability:
Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well. There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75 million. Maybe more.
Cespedes became the Mets’ offensive catalyst, helping transform the Mets from the league’s lowest-scoring offense to NL champions, and there’s little doubt they would not still be playing had they not traded for the powerful outfielder.
Cespedes will finally find stability this winter after being shuffled in trade-deadline deals the past two seasons—though unlikely with the Mets. One rival executive told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, “I will be shocked if they sign Cespedes,” who is expected to cash in anywhere from $120-150 million, an AL manager told Cafardo.
New York’s outfield is crowded as is, with Juan Lagares, Curtis Grandson and Michael Conforto the likely 2016 starters. Cespedes’ absence will hurt, but it’s a loss the team had forecast.
The Mets aren’t necessarily playing cheap, but rather smart. With a financially limited front office oft-criticized for not making necessary deals to contend, they’ve defied critics by going from underdogs to World Series favorites, per Odds Shark.
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