The MLB postseason and World Series still have to unfold before a true gauge can be had of the 2016 free-agent market, but it’s late enough in the 162-game marathon of a regular season to speculate.
Perhaps the No. 1 reminder at this time of year is how paramount starting pitching is. It’s what tends to separate the contenders from the pretenders as the MLB’s elite gears up for a pursuit of pro baseball’s top prize.
But the absence of a salary cap and hefty paydays top-tier pitchers command always complicate matters. Those factors contribute to an air of uncertainty as to whether they will stick with their current clubs despite their obvious, enormous value.
Let’s check in to see how the best dealers in baseball due to hit the open market are faring this year and predict what might happen when they do become free agents.
David Price, Toronto Blue Jays
The spark David Price has provided since arriving in Toronto through a deadline trade can’t be minimized. Credit the Blue Jays for being aggressive to upgrade their roster, but Price’s brilliance is almost more than fans could have hoped for.
Price has a 9-1 record in 11 starts since joining the Jays. Prior to his last American League East winning decision over his former club Tampa Bay, ESPN’s Jayson Stark highlighted the impact Price has had on Toronto:
The mighty New York Yankees were atop the AL East, suggesting a return to form by the Bronx Bombers. But Price time and again bested the Yankees as the Blue Jays blew by them in position to capture the divisional crown.
Stellar as Toronto’s rotation is as it stands with R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle on the staff in addition to Price, Buehrle is a free agent after the year is over and is 36 years old (h/t Spotrac). It’s unclear how much Buehrle has left in him. He has a decent 3.76 ERA at the moment but also benefits from the club’s MLB-leading offense in the form of ample run support.
Dickey is 40 years old in his own right and could well retire if Toronto emerges with the Commissioner’s Trophy. Marco Estrada, who has the highest 2015 WAR rating of the Jays starters excluding Price at 3.4 (h/t ESPN.com), is also free to sign elsewhere this winter.
“He does wonders for us, on and off the field. I’m going to do everything in my power to get him back here for sure,” said fellow Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman of Price, per CBC News.
All of this points to the Blue Jays brass’ prioritizing Price above all in the offseason. An ace of Price’s caliber doesn’t come along often, and Toronto has to feel extremely fortunate to have him.
The price tag is going to be heavy but well worth it if the Jays muster the gusto to pay their revelation of a southpaw. Price is in a promising situation with Toronto and will likely seek stability after bouncing around to three different teams within the past two years.
Prediction: Price re-signs with Blue Jays.
Johnny Cueto, Kansas City Royals
A rough patch of five starts from late August to mid-September saw Johnny Cueto yield 30 runs (28 earned) in 26.1 innings. Since then, he’s rediscovered some form, conceding just eight runs in his past three appearances spanning 20 innings.
The playoffs will likely determine whether Cueto remains in Kansas City. While a player such as Price has proved to be capable and clutch in October before, Cueto sports a 0-2 record with a 5.19 ERA in three prior postseason starts.
Having posted a 20-win season in which he led the National League in strikeouts with Cincinnati just last year, though, there’s no denying Cueto is an elite talent. He is also only 29 years old and figures to produce for most of the duration—if not the entire duration—of his next big contract.
The unusual windup and delivery Cueto has can’t be replicated and will help him keep hitters off balance even when he gets into the latter stages of his career. That makes a long-term investment worthwhile and should put any prospective suitors at ease to a degree.
MLB.com’s Cut4 Twitter account showed the effectiveness of Cueto’s knack for confusing the opposition:
Starting pitching is a bit of a weakness for the Royals, so they ought to strongly consider keeping Cueto in the fold. They rank tied 25th in the MLB with 67 quality starts entering Wednesday’s games.
Nevertheless, Kansas City will likely let Cueto walk. He hasn’t lived up to expectations since the club acquired him just prior to the trade deadline and also no-showed for a fan event in early September. Cueto has even openly admitted to a desire to play for Boston.
“It depends,” said Cueto in August about possibly joining the Red Sox, per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. “Because I’m a free agent, and I’m just going to pick the best choice to go. The main thing—I would like to come here because it’s a championship-caliber team.”
The merging of Cueto and the Royals hasn’t seemed like a comfortable fit for either side. Cueto will have his pick of the lot as to where he wants to get a fresh start, but the Green Monster at Fenway Park is certainly pitcher-friendly.
If Cueto lights it up in the playoffs, there’s little reason for Kansas City to let him go. This is a preliminary projection for a player who can essentially play for whoever is willing to fork over the appropriate funds. A big-market team such as Boston makes a lot of sense in that regard too.
Prediction: Cueto signs with Red Sox.
Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
Turmoil has infected these 2015 Nationals. Despite a loaded pitching rotation and no shortage of overall talent on the roster, Washington is out of the playoff picture.
Nationals manager Matt Williams has come under intense scrutiny and reportedly lost the team during a disappointing year, as the Washington Post‘s Barry Svrluga wrote. Washington’s brightest young star, Bryce Harper, got into a dugout scuffle with closer Jonathan Papelbon recently as well.
A change of scenery would seem to suit Jordan Zimmermann in light of his regression following the All-Star break. ESPN’s Mike Wise doesn’t believe it’s feasible for the Nationals to retain Zimmermann as it is:
Anyone with the freedom to leave Washington after the 2015 campaign is bound to exercise that right or at least seriously consider doing so in the end. Zimmermann is chief among the free agents who can exit the dysfunctional clubhouse.
Speaking of the Red Sox, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo admitted in April to discussing a trade involving Zimmermann last offseason with former Boston GM Ben Cherington, according to the Boston Herald‘s Jason Mastrodonato. Now the Red Sox are in the midst of a new front-office regime, so perhaps Zimmermann isn’t as prominent on their radar now.
One team executing a lengthy rebuild that is finally paying dividends is the Chicago Cubs. In November 2014, Chicago was reportedly engaged in trade talks to acquire Zimmermann, according to the Chicago Sun-Times (via MLB.com’s Bill Ladson).
Now that the Cubs are established with a loaded young nucleus that will play in the postseason this year and has all the makings of a future perennial contender, there’s more to sell Zimmermann on in their free-agent pitch.
As it stands for now, the Cubs are approximately $57.5 million below the luxury-tax threshold, per Spotrac. Enough money ought to be available for a marquee free agent such as Zimmermann. Chicago’s bullpen has been solid in 2015, but its starting rotation would be transcendent with another big-time player to plug in with Jon Lester and newly minted 20-game winner Jake Arrieta.
Based on the prior apparent interest and a roster burgeoning with upside, Zimmermann seems like a logical fit on the north side of the Windy City.
Prediction: Zimmermann signs with Cubs.
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