All eyes will be on free agents like David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jason Heyward this offseason, but considering the limited number of Major League Baseball teams able to get in a bidding war for that trio, under-the-radar stars and bounce-back candidates are more valuable commodities.
There are signees every winter who don’t draw many headlines, yet manage to end up looking great in hindsight. Jung Ho Kang was an unknown commodity coming over from South Korea, yet turned out to be the second-best National League shortstop as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015.
Considering the Pirates can’t get in bidding wars for top players, Kang‘s contract for $11 million over four years gives the franchise a lot of flexibility to upgrade other areas of need.
This year’s crop of free agents is a deep group, with a strong split between pitchers and hitters, so there will be plenty of opportunities for teams to choose from.
With very-early rumors starting to trickle out, here are the underrated stars who are already starting to attract attention.
Gerardo Parra, OF (Age: 28)
Gerardo Parra was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles before the July trade deadline in an effort to shore up their porous outfield situation. Instead, the 28-year-old seemed to make things worse, at least offensively, with a .574 OPS in 51 games.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Parra, who was having a career year with Milwaukee before being traded.
Ultimately, Parra‘s pace with Milwaukee was too good to be true and his current output with Baltimore is just one of those random baseball variances that can happen. He’s still at an age and has enough of a track record to think he will return next year closer to his .728 career OPS.
In terms of suitors, James Wagner of the Washington Post speculates the Nationals could be a good landing spot for Parra because of his relationship to key members of the front office:
(General manager Mike) Rizzo was the Diamondbacks scouting director when Parra was signed out of his native Venezuela in 2004, and (manager Matt) Williams was on the coaching staff there when Parra patrolled the outfield and won two Gold Gloves. Even after Rizzo moved to Washington and took over the organization, the Nationals remained interested in Parra.
A big part of Parra‘s value is his ability to play all three outfield positions. The Nationals have to deal with possibly losing center fielder Denard Span this offseason. Jayson Werth will still be occupying left field, barring some team willing to trade for him and take on the final two years of his contract.
Some guy named Bryce Harper is in right field and may have that job locked down for a couple of years. Michael Taylor was given an extended look this season due to Span battling injuries, showing stellar defensive chops with minimal offensive upside.
Even though Parra has played all three outfield positions, he’s best suited to a corner. From 2013-14, he ranked second behind Heyward among right fielders in FanGraphs‘ defensive value.
Given how Parra ended this season and his limited offensive upside, the Nationals could sign him on a cheap deal for one or two years.
Assuming they have to start 2016 with Werth in left field, Parra can play well enough in center field. He’s not a difference-making star, yet hits for average with enough power to be a solid offensive contributor with strong defensive chops in the right position.
Prediction: Nationals sign Parra to one-year, $10 million deal
Doug Fister, RHP (Age: 31)
Doug Fister picked a bad year to battle injuries, lose his spot in Washington’s rotation and post the worst ERA of his career, as the soon-to-be free agent has gone from earning a solid four- or five-year deal to possibly having to settle for a one- or two-year contract.
The good news is that makes Fister a great commodity, especially since he had a strong five-year track record before things fell apart in 2015. He’s not an overpowering pitcher, averaging only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings in his career.
Fister‘s success depends on his ability to pepper the strike zone and generate ground balls, making him an ideal candidate for a team in need of starting pitching help that already has a strong defense in place.
According to Jeff Blair of SportsNet.ca, the newly crowned American League East champion Toronto Blue Jays “will make a play” for Fister.
The Blue Jays don’t figure to have much of a shot at retaining Price, unless ownership is so energized by this postseason run that they give general manager Alex Anthopoulos around $210 million-$215 million to invest in the left-hander.
As a result, Anthopoulos will have to get creative to avoid a decline next season. Fister isn’t a No. 1 starter, but can be a high-end No. 3. Toronto isn’t an elite defensive squad but is good enough, ranking middle of the pack in FanGraphs‘ defensive value and 10th in defensive runs saved.
By comparison, Washington’s 2015 defense has cost the team 12 runs.
With Marcus Stroman back and making a strong impression and R.A. Dickey providing solid innings, Fister can slot in right as the No. 3 in this rotation, knowing the Blue Jays will score a ton of runs and be able to compete for another division title in 2016.
Prediction: Blue Jays sign Fister to two-year, $22 million deal
Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP (Age: 34)
The Seattle Mariners are entering a new era with Jerry DiPoto as general manager, hoping to finally live up to the hype that was around them coming into 2015.
Yet one key piece of the equation is scheduled to hit free agency, Hisashi Iwakuma. The 34-year-old has been nicked up this season, making 19 starts, but has still posted strong strikeout (7.6 per nine innings) and WHIP numbers (1.052).
DiPoto told ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden that Iwakuma is going to be a priority for the Mariners this offseason.
Iwakuma‘s contract is going to be interesting because he’s an older free agent, so his leverage isn’t as strong as a typical pitcher with his credentials. He does keep good company in the ERA category, per Gary Hill of Mariners.com:
The Mariners are in a good position to spend money this offseason, as Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists them as having $78.9 million on the books for 2016, down from the $123 million mark when this season started.
However, included in Bowden’s piece, DiPoto emphasized the need to build a team that’s suited to Safeco Field and building a better defensive outfield. It’s reasonable to expect the M’s to make a run at outfield upgrades for all three positions, which will take a lot of money.
Plus, it’s not like the Mariners are lacking starting pitching. Felix Hernandez remains one of the best in the business. Taijuan Walker needs to get more consistent, but showed a lot of progress this season. James Paxton will always have erratic control and needs to stay healthy, but lefties with his stuff are hard to find.
Prediction: Iwakuma doesn’t re-sign with Seattle.
Stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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