The Major League Baseball offseason can be as dramatic as the postseason—at least in most years, though this October is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory—providing thrills and heartache for fans and teams in their quests to build championship rosters.
This winter, all eyes will be on marquee names like Toronto Blue Jays ace David Price and New York Mets slugger Yoenis Cespedes, but only a select group of teams will be able to get in on the bidding for those players. The more interesting dynamic at play involves what will happen in the second- and third-tier markets.
Those players aren’t going to draw the same attention but will serve valuable functions for teams that have a strong nucleus in place and need to make a tweak here or there to get over the hump.
For instance, no one would have expected Kendrys Morales to hit 20-plus home runs with over 100 RBI in the middle of the Kansas City Royals lineup when the team signed him last year, yet there he is, doing just that.
Such under-the-radar deals can make all the difference when the postseason rolls around, so here are some of the latest rumblings about unheralded free agents and where they could end up before 2016’s spring training begins.
John Lackey to Switch Sides in Rivalry?
The St. Louis Cardinals’ season ended in Game 4 of the National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs with John Lackey on the mound as the starting pitcher.
Perhaps the script for Lackey will reverse next season. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported that the Cubs could pursue the veteran right-hander this winter.
“It is not out of the realm of possibility that Lackey could wind up with the Cubs next season as a free agent, according to one major league source,” Cafardo noted. “It was Theo Epstein who signed him as a free agent in Boston. Lackey is also a close friend of Jon Lester, who will push Epstein in that direction.”
Lackey played this season under one of the most team-friendly salaries in history. When he originally signed with the Boston Red Sox in 2010, there was a provision in the deal that meant his salary for the final season (2015) would be the major league minimum, worth roughly $500,000.
The 36-year-old responded by having his best season since he was a Cy Young contender with the Los Angeles Angels, posting a career-low 2.77 ERA and throwing over 200 innings for the first time since 2010. His 3.6 wins above replacement were his most since 2007, according to FanGraphs.
Adding a veteran starter of Lackey’s ability behind the dynamic one-two punch of Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester would make the already formidable Cubs more lethal in 2016, though Lackey is not likely to replicate his numbers from this season, as his 3.57 fielding-independent ERA suggests some regression will come.
Yet even factoring in regression, Lackey is a more reliable option than Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel in the No. 3 spot.
Plus, the Cubs wouldn’t have to break the bank to sign Lackey, since he’s at a point where a three-year deal might be too much for some teams. That works to Chicago’s benefit, because by the time Lackey’s contract ends, young stars like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber will be on the verge of earning big raises through arbitration.
It will be shocking if Lackey doesn’t have a robust market this winter, but the Cubs do have a compelling presentation to make.
Prediction: Lackey signs with Cubs.
Freese High on Angels’ Wish List
David Freese will be one of the most interesting free-agent test cases of the upcoming offseason. The former All-Star has been an above-average hitter in two seasons with the Angels but also missed 69 games during that span.
Injuries have been a problem for Freese, who has played more than 140 games only once since 2010, though that isn’t deterring the Angels from keeping a close eye on the 32-year-old, according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com.
“When Freese returned, their lineup deepened and their record improved,” Gonzalez noted. “It was no coincidence, which is why the Angels are expected to strongly consider bringing Freese back this offseason—even though they have two promising young players waiting, and even though they’ll have other holes to fill in their lineup.”
Freese also told Gonzalez that his hope is to remain with the Angels, while admitting both sides will have to explore the situation in greater detail over the winter.
“I think they understand that [I want to return],” Freese said. “With that said, a lot of things have to happen on both sides. It’s a new experience for me. We’ll see what happens when the World Series is over and go from there.”
The Angels, like Freese, will be a fascinating study in the offseason. They have an owner in Arte Moreno who will spend money, at times foolishly, in hopes of winning a championship. New general manager Billy Eppler has to establish his own identity while working within the system, especially since Moreno and manager Mike Scioscia are close.
Being able to spend money in smart ways—Albert Pujols still has power, but a 35-year-old first baseman with a .307 on-base percentage who is still owed $165 million through 2021 doesn’t look good—will determine how successful the Angels are moving forward.
Freese was the third-best Angels hitter by OPS+ (109) last season. Like Pujols, he doesn’t get on base at a high rate, but he does provide enough pop (41 extra-base hits, .420 slugging percentage) to warrant a modest two-year deal.
Since the Angels don’t seem likely to undertake even a short-term rebuild, they have to stick with veteran performers on whom they can depend. Freese falls into that category, even if he’s not the impact hitter the Angels hoped they had acquired from St. Louis two years ago.
Prediction: Freese re-signs with Angels.
Torii Hunter’s Extended Return
When the Minnesota Twins brought Torii Hunter back last winter, it seemed odd that a young, rebuilding franchise would want a 39-year-old outfielder on its roster.
Then the Twins went out and won 83 games, with a lot of those young players and Hunter working in unison to make it happen.
According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, people in the Twins organization hope to bring Hunter back in 2016.
“Twins people loved the job Torii Hunter did in the clubhouse and are expected to try to bring him back for another year,” Heyman wrote. “Hunter’s influence seems undeniable.”
This is one of those cases in which words like “leadership” and “clubhouse guy” will come up. Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe talked about Hunter’s skills off the field in July with Dave Campbell of the Associated Press.
“The mentality that he brings in, that we’ve kind of embraced, of that short memory, forgetting about yesterday, forgetting about the game that happened an hour ago, that’s something that’s really helped us,” Plouffe said. “That’s kind of been the difference in the team from the years past.”
While those intangibles may hold some type of value, Hunter wasn’t good on the field last season:
Another issue is that the Twins aren’t lacking for outfielders. Eddie Rosario struggled this season with a .289 on-base percentage but is just 24 years old with the potential to get better. Aaron Hicks finally showed flashes of being a capable big leaguer. Max Kepler and Byron Buxton should get a lot of at-bats in 2016, and Miguel Sano, who played mostly as a designated hitter in 2015, is capable of playing right field.
At Hunter’s age (now 40), his performance isn’t likely to get any better than it was this season, which is a problem, given how talented the young nucleus around him is and what it could be next season.
The notion of clubhouse chemistry became a hot topic late in the season, with USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale speaking to various players and front-office personnel around baseball about its importance.
“People that don’t understand what team chemistry means don’t work in baseball,’’ Price told Nightengale. “It makes me mad, because obviously they don’t know how important it is. Ask the Giants. Ask the Royals. Ask the Cardinals.”
No one denies that good relationships between players and coaches help over the course of a season that starts in February and ends in October, but the Giants, Royals and Cardinals are loaded with talent.
Hunter, at this point in his career, serves no purpose for the Twins on the field. Yet it seems the front office believes in his behind-the-scenes skills so much that it would be a surprise if he doesn’t play one more season.
Prediction: Hunter re-signs with Twins.
Stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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