The worst kept secret came to fruition on Tuesday night as first baseman Adam LaRoche agreed to a two-year contract with a mutual option for a third year with a guaranteed value of $16 million.
I thought it was a great signing, even though LaRoche was General Manager Mike Rizzo’s third choice to fill the spot vacated by Adam Dunn (he was certainly my first choice, though). Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee were both offered contracts, but chose to sign elsewhere.
I am a little surprised at the reaction to the signing, though. “Average” and “mediocre” are some of the nicer comments I’ve read thus far around the blogosphere. To be fair, many of the commenters also say that the signing is generally a positive thing, but are they right?
Is Adam LaRoche just a mediocre first baseman pursued by a mediocre team?
Here are next year’s projected starting first baseman in the National League East, listed by runs batted in:
1. Philadelphia—Ryan Howard: .276-31-108
2. Washington—Adam LaRoche: .261-25-100
3. Florida—Gabby Sanchez: .273-19-85
4. New York—Ike Davis: .264-19-71
5. Atlanta—Eric Hinske: .256-11-51
LaRoche drove in just eight fewer runs than Ryan Howard last season and had more home runs and more runs batted in than anyone else in the division.
That’s not exactly mediocre, right?
Among National League first basemen, LaRoche was sixth in home runs with 25 and fifth with 100 RBI, right up there with Ryan Howard, Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez. And six players had batting averages lower than his .261.
In 2010, LaRoche hit left-handers better than righties. Adam Dunn, by comparison, batted .199 against them and was a hole in the lineup on those days when a lefty pitched. With runners in scoring position and two out, LaRoche batted .274/.348/.575, while Dunn hit just .169/.334/.366.
Last season, there were five elite first baseman in the National League. Listed below are their statistics from 2010 along with LaRoche, who of course isn’t in their league, but was one of the few first baseman to drive in 100 runs or more last year. They are listed by runs batted in:
Albert Pujols: .312-42-118
Joey Votto: .324-37-113
Ryan Howard: .276-31-108
Adrian Gonzalez: .298-31-101
Adam LaRoche: .261-25-100
Prince Fielder: .261-32-83
Now let’s take a look at those same six first baseman but we’ll use their clutch statistics from last season. Listed below is how they did with runners in scoring position and two outs, and with those numbers based on a full 162 game season (it’s much easier to compare that way as the number of at-bats varies from player to player). Again, they are listed by runs batted in:
Adam LaRoche: .274/.348/.575, 48 home runs, 292 RBI
Joey Votto: .327/.476/.653, 51 home runs, 268 RBI
Ryan Howard: .200/.341/.586, 38 home runs, 198 RBI
Albert Pujols: .340/.588/.620, 24 home runs, 186 RBI
Adrian Gonzalez: .317/.563/.439, 10 home runs, 142 RBI
Prince Fielder: .212/.441/.242, 0 home runs, 111 RBI
LaRoche had the highest number of RBI and came in second in home runs when compared to these elite sluggers (again, based on a full season). Yes, his batting average was just fourth best, but clutch hitting is all about driving in runs, not getting on base.
After looking at these statistics, LaRoche doesn’t seem “mediocre,” does he?
Defensively, LaRoche is not a Gold Glove first baseman, but he is an extremely good fielder, who can stop balls hit down the line and is great at digging bad throw out of the dirt.
Let’s compare the defense of those top first baseman with Adam LaRoche. They are listed by highest fielding percentage. Also shown are errors made and number of innings played:
Adam LaRoche: .995 (44/7,878)
Albert Pujols: .994 (68/10,039)
Albert Gonzalez: .994 (41/7,447)
Joey Votto: .993 (26/3,740)
Price Fielder: .992 (53/6,917)
Ryan Howard: .990 (78/7,440)
And to help make sense of these numbers, I’ve included the last two Nationals’ first baseman, Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn. We remember Johnson as a solid fielder and Dunn as pretty bad:
Nick Johnson: .992 (48/5,527)
Adam Dunn: .987 (36/2,677)
These numbers don’t take into account range and a few other factors, but overall, fielding percent is a good indicator of a player’s defense. Though LaRoche might not get to the same number of balls as Adrian Gonzalez, he is better at turning them into outs.
Does that sound mediocre to you?
No, Adam LaRoche isn’t a star first baseman who will change the fortunes of the Washington Nationals with one swing of the bat. But that’s not what he is supposed to be. The Nationals have stars in right field and third base right now, and in a couple of years, the team will add another one once Bryce Harper gets a little bit of experience.
LaRoche will be asked to field his position, hit 20-25 home runs and drive in 100 runs. If he does those things, he will be among the upper third of first baseman in 2011 just like he was last year.
And that, no matter how you slice it, is nowhere close to mediocre.
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