As the 2010 season unfolded, the Red Sox front office declared it was interested in re-signing soon-to-be-free-agents Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez. And as the offseason began, General Manager Theo Epstein insisted retaining both players was one of the organization’s top priorities.
But actions speak louder than words. The Red Sox failed to make a substantive offer to either player and watched as both players departed for other destinations.
Back in November, I wrote that it was unlikely the Red Sox would make an earnest effort to re-sign either player (or infielder Felipe Lopez, a Type B free agent who remains unsigned) because they “will want the draft picks in what is expected to be a VERY deep 2011 draft.”
Not only will 2011 be a deep draft, but with anticipated changes to future drafts, it’s also expected to be the last draft in which teams like the Red Sox and Yankees will be able to load up on talent (by signing players for above-slot signing bonuses).
In retrospect, the Red Sox approach to Beltre and Martinez seemed an obvious strategy for Epstein and the Sox ownership. The Red Sox organization will receive two picks apiece for the loss of Beltre and Martinez, and another pick if (when) Lopez signs, in the June draft. [NOTE: Lopez was signed in September for the expressed purpose of obtaining an extra draft pick when he signs as a free agent).
Depending on what ultimately happens with free agent closer Rafael Soriano, they’ll likely get the first-round pick for the Tigers (#19 overall) and the Rangers (#26), plus two picks in the supplemental round that follows. They will receive a compensation-round pick for losing Lopez, when he signs elsewhere.
They traded three of their Top Ten prospects in exchange for former San Diego 1B Adrian Gonzalez, and surrendered their own first-round pick for signing LF Carl Crawford.
It is an interesting approach to building a team…
Would you rather have Beltre and Martinez and Kelly/Rizzo/Fuentes and a first-round pick in June, or Crawford and Gonzalez and six picks in the first two rounds of one of the deepest drafts in recent memory?
With the switch of Youkilis across the diamond, Gonzalez effectively replaces Beltre. He is younger and has proven to be a far more consistent run-producer than Beltre (who has had only a couple of decent years, both times in the final year of his contract). Texas gave Beltre five (or six) years at $80 MM (or $96 MM). I’ll take Gonzo…every day.
Crawford essentially replaces Martinez on the roster. He’ll bat third in the lineup and provide the club with outstanding defense. He is not a long-term answer to the team’s dilemma behind home plate, but he is an impact player both at the plate and in the field. Again, I’ll take the new guy.
Would you rather have the three traded prospects and the Sox’ first and second round picks in the upcoming draft, or a total of six picks in the first two rounds of the upcoming draft?
That question is much harder to answer and calls for a great deal of conjecture. The analysis is dependent on whether the Sox ultimately sign Gonzalez to a long-term contract extension (the supposition here is that they will). With that said, we know the following:
Casey Kelly was the Red Sox No. 1 prospect. He now calls the San Diego organization home. He has a tremendous amount of potential, but he is still young and he struggled mightily in Double-A ball last season.
He has been replaced as the team’s top pitching prospect by former LSU standout Anthony Ranaudo, a 6’7″ right-hander who has top-of-the-rotation potential and who was impressive in the Cape Cod League this past summer.
The Red Sox have Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and John Lackey in the rotation for years to come, and Daisuke Matsuzaka in the rotation for the next couple of years (barring a trade). They also have Tim Wakefield waiting in the wings in case of injuries or struggles. To an extent, Kelly and Ranaudo were redundant commodities. Ranaudo made Kelly expendable.
Gonzalez made Rizzo (and Lars Anderson?) expendable… again, assuming they sign him to a long-term extension.
Fuentes is a decent prospect, but raw. They have a similar outfielder in Jacoby Ellsbury…and now they have added Carl Crawford. Because he was raw and his future could not be assured, he was expendable.
The ballclub will likely have two picks in the first round and two more in the supplemental round, meaning they should have four of the first 50 picks (+/-). It will have at least one more pick in the second round (and another compensation-round pick if and when Lopez signs elsewhere). Therefore, the club will have as many as five of the first 50 picks (+/-) and six of the first 75 picks (+/-) in the draft.
The first six players the Red Sox selected in last year’s draft are all numbered among the organization’s top 21 prospects: Ranaudo (#3), Kolbrin Vitek (#8), Brandon Workman (#15), Sean Coyle (#17), Garin Cecchini (#18) and Bryce Brentz (#21). If the organization is able to repeat those results in the upcoming draft, the strategy the front office employed this off-season will have been a resounding success.
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The Texas Rangers and Adrian Beltre have agreed to a five-year deal that will pay the former Sox 3B a guaranteed $80 million…the contract has a sixth year at $16 million (that will vest depending on the number of plate appearances Beltre makes in 2014/15). Well, it looks like agent Scott Boras did it again!
Beltre hit .321, with 28 HR and 102 RBI in his one season with the Red Sox last year. He led the American League in doubles (49) and posted a plus-10 in defensive runs saved. He also made the AL All-Star team.
But in spite of those numbers, the Beltre market was cool this off-season. Teams seemed to discount his performance in Boston due to the fact he has only put up monster numbers in his contract years, and he won’t have another contract year for five seasons.
He expected heated competition for his services this off-season, but a bidding war never materialized. He was (understandably) cool to an overture from Oakland…and it seemed he may have shot himself in the foot when the holidays came and went without a deal in place.
But Boras managed to pit the Los Angeles Angels and Rangers against one another… and in spite of the fact the Angels were reportedly only willing to go to $70 million, the agent managed to get the Angels to put $80 million in guaranteed money on the table (with another $16 million tied to the third baseman’s ABs).
It seems Texas may have been bidding against itself… and it says here the Rangers will live to regret this contract.
At least it’s not the Red Sox. Theo Epstein got a remarkable season out of Beltre for short money, and will now benefit from two top selections in the ’11 First-Year Player Draft as he heads off into the sunset.
Additionally, when the Beltre deal goes south on Texas, the competition in the A L West will have less money to work with. The rich get richer…
Of his deal with Texas, Beltre said: “We all know that the Rangers have a really good team. I want to win. The team is willing to do whatever it takes to get to the next step. That’s one of the factors in making my decision to come here easier.” Yeah, okay Adrian, it was reason #80,000,001.
He will receive $14 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012, $16 million in 2013, $17 million in 2014 and $18 million in 2015.
The sixth year of the deal is for $16 million in 2016, and can be voided by the Rangers if Beltre fails to have either 1,200 plate appearances in 2014 and 2015 combined, or 600 in 2015.
The deal means Beltre will be the club’s starting third baseman, with incumbent Michael Young shifting to DH and a super-utility role.
It will be the second time in three seasons Young has been asked to shift positions.
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