Trades often take years before anyone truly knows who “won” the deal, but in the short-term, I feel the Cubs were the winners. Not by a huge margin, but a slight one.
In case you’ve been living under a rock, or just got out of jail, the Cubs have been busy this week. First trading Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins and now sending Andrew Cashner to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo.
An everyday first baseman for a relief pitcher is, to me, always a smart investment. Sure, the Cubs were trying to do more with Cashner, and the Padres may do the same, but I believe Cashner is a reliever long-term.
Now, that’s not to say that he won’t be an elite reliever at the major league level. In fact, if healthy, I fully predict he will.
But I really like the promise this Rizzo kid brings.
I know he struggled in his first tryout at the major league level with San Diego, but he is 21, and even Cubs GM Jed Hoyer admits he was wrong to bring Rizzo up so soon.
Meanwhile, there were two other players in the transaction.
The Cubs also got right-hander Zack Cates, who is a very raw but interesting former position player-turned-pitcher. The Cubs had success with just such a conversion with Carlos Marmol, so there is precedent for this sort of thing.
In fact, look no further than the cross-town White Sox, who recently traded an effective young pitcher who was also a former position player in Sergio Santos.Cates will need to develop a breaking ball if he’s going to become a starter, but he profiles well as a reliever in any case.
Meanwhile, Kyung-Min Na also goes from Chicago to San Diego. The 20-year-old center fielder has a solid glove and plus speed, though there are questions about his hitting mechanics.
As for Rizzo, he was outstanding in AAA, so I feel Hoyer was being a little hard on himself for saying that he called him up too soon. He has a good approach at the plate and terrific makeup (no, not mascara). He has very good power and is also a good defensive first sacker.
Rizzo missed the 2008 season due to Hodgkin’s lymphoma, but he has a clean bill of health now.
As for his struggles in San Diego, part of that could be the park (Petco is where power goes to die for many hitters, although I can think of an exception by the name of Adrian Gonzalez).
Speaking of Gonzalez, Rizzo was part of the return that Hoyer got from Boston when he traded his slugging first baseman to the Red Sox.
In addition to that trade, there is other history with Rizzo, as all three of the Cubs’ power brokers—Theo Epstein, Hoyer and Jason McLeod—were in the Sox front office when they drafted Rizzo.
Getting back to Cashner, he has an overpowering fastball when healthy, but I don’t feel he profiles as a starter in the big leagues.While pitching in Petco will likely inflate his value, a rotator cuff injury wiped out most of his 2011 season, so the Padres will have to be careful with Cashner.
So, there are a lot of unknowns in this trade, and some value on both sides. But, for all intents and purposes, the deal comes down to an everyday first baseman for a reliever, and I like it.
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