Many years from now, we may find ourselves recalling how the first great bidding war between the megarich Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees of the 2000s was not over a hulking slugger or a fire-balling starter, but over a left-handed reliever.
That means you, Andrew Miller. Potentially, anyway.
After dominating hitters to the tune of a 2.02 ERA and 6.1 K/BB ratio in 2014, it’s no surprise that the rumor mill has had plenty to say about the 29-year-old southpaw’s market this winter. The most recent word on Miller, however, is easily the most intriguing to date.
As ESPN’s Buster Olney reported on Monday, Miller is on the radar of baseball’s two most powerful franchises:
Mind you, the Dodgers and Yankees aren’t the only teams interested in Miller. Joel Sherman of the New York Post spoke to Mark Rodgers, Miller’s agent, and came away with the impression that there are “many teams interested in the same price range” where Miller is concerned.
But still, it’s easy to speculate that this could be it. This could be the Dodgers-Yankees bidding war we’ve been waiting for ever since Magic Johnson and his partners purchased the Dodgers in 2012 and immediately launched them into the Yankees’ financial stratosphere.
There was no struggle between the two over Zack Greinke two winters ago, as the Yankees were apparently never interested. The two didn’t tangle over Robinson Cano last winter like many expected they would. And while the Dodgers were interested in Masahiro Tanaka, they apparently weren’t nearly interested enough to match the Yankees’ $175 million payout.
Granted, the cost for Miller won’t be anywhere near as high as the cost of these players. But it could get pretty high if the right pieces fall into the right places.
And in this case, it’s not hard to see that happening.
How the Dodgers factor into the Miller sweepstakes isn’t that complicated. Olney was right in noting that he would greatly improve their bullpen, and goodness knows their bullpen greatly needs improving.
By ERA, the Dodgers bullpen was MLB‘s No. 22 pen in 2014. FanGraphs WAR—which is based off of Fielding Independent Pitching—rated it even worse, marking it as the No. 26 bullpen in baseball.
And right now, the Dodgers bullpen doesn’t figure to be significantly better.
Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi and the rest of the team’s new-look front office have added some intriguing arms in the likes of Joel Peralta and Juan Nicasio, but Kenley Jansen is the only Dodgers reliever the Steamer projection system projects to have a WAR over 0.2 in 2015.
In other words, the Dodgers bullpen currently projects to be Jansen and then a whole bunch of nothing once again.
Miller would change that. Steamer projects him to post a 2.30 ERA and 0.8 WAR in 2015, figures that would make him a welcome eighth-inning bridge to Jansen. And with the kind of star power they have elsewhere, that’s a bridge that could have a huge hand in getting the Dodgers to the World Series.
As for the Yankees, they’re coming off a year in which their bullpen was not a problem. It only finished 19th in ERA, but it tied the Kansas City Royals bullpen for first in MLB in WAR. The two guys mainly responsible were setup man Dellin Betances and closer David Robertson, who were two of MLB’s 14 best relievers in WAR’s eyes.
With Robertson also testing the free-agent waters, it could be the Yankees have it in mind to sign both of them. If so, the idea there would presumably be to see if they could have success with a killer bullpen trio like the Royals just did with Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland.
It’s either that, or Olney is dead-on in thinking that the Yankees could pull off a win-win by letting Robertson go and replacing him with Miller:
Makes sense. The Yankees are a team in need of as many draft picks as it can get its hands on. Letting Robertson go would net them one, while signing Miller would give them a reliever who’s more than capable of filling Robertson’s shoes. They’d be retooling and rebuilding.
So as far as team needs go, the seeds are there for a Dodgers-Yankees bidding war over Miller. He’d be the setup man for Jansen that the Dodgers sorely needed in 2014. And if the Yankees can’t sign both Miller and Robertson, he makes a lot of sense as a replacement for Robertson.
That’s one element of the equation. The other, naturally, is money.
To this end, one advantage the Yankees have is a bit more leeway with their 2015 payroll. Several weeks ago, MLB Trade Rumors had their 2015 expenditures projected at just under $182 million. Not exactly chump change, but a safe distance away from their $197 million Opening Day payroll in 2014, and even further way from their $228 million payroll in 2013.
The Dodgers don’t have as much wiggle room on their hands. Between their nearly $200 million guaranteed and roughly $20 million in projected arbitration payouts, they’re already pretty close to their $229 million Opening Day payroll from 2014.
However, it should be noted that the Dodgers could hypothetically go higher than $230 million if they wanted to, as their local TV deal is worth $240 million a year all on its own. It should also be noted that signing Miller wouldn’t necessarily boost their payroll in the end, as they’re bound to create some breathing room by eventually dealing one of their excess outfielders.
So there’s money to go along with the needs, which leads us to one final ingredient for a potential bidding war: how Miller’s agent might try to play the Dodgers and Yankees against each other.
Knowing that Rodgers characterized Miller at the MLB general manager meetings as a “closer-in-waiting” whose “time for waiting is over,” he could look at the Yankees and tell them, if the money’s equal, Miller would prefer to have a shot at closing in Robertson’s stead. He could then turn around and tell the Dodgers that, if the money’s equal, Miller would prefer to play for a team with the best shot at winning the World Series.
Given the kind of names—Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields, et al—that are still available on the open market, it may seem strange to think that a Dodgers-Yankees bidding war would take place over a mere lefty reliever.
But since this particular lefty reliever is a really good one who makes sense for both teams, the money’s there and there are angles for Miller’s agent to play, the board is pretty well set for a bidding war.
If that’s what it comes to, there will be only one thing to say: about time.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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