The last vestige of Major League Baseball in 2015 is here in the form of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America awards that will be handed out starting on Nov. 16.
As has been the case since 2012, three award finalists from each league have been announced in four categories, including Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player.
Here are the players and managers competing for those prestigious honors:
There are no surprises in the list of finalists, though that doesn’t mean the races lack any real drama. The biggest storyline is the list of National League MVP finalists, which doesn’t feature one player from a playoff team.
MLB.com’s Tom Singer took things even further:
The official ballot for voters actually says postseason appearances are not necessary to define MVP, which represents positive progress by the BBWAA.
“There is no clear-cut definition of what most valuable means,” per BBWAA.com. “It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.”
Bryce Harper should win the award, as he was the only player in baseball with a slash line of at least .300/.400/.600 and led all players with a FanGraphs‘ WAR total of 9.5.
In the American League, it seems a foregone conclusion that Josh Donaldson will be named MVP. He was outstanding in his first season with Toronto, hitting .297/.371/.568 with 41 home runs and helping Toronto make the postseason.
However, Mike Trout had better numbers in all three main categories with a .299/.402/.590 slash line and tied Donaldson with 41 home runs.
Grantland’s Jonah Keri also made the case for Trout, using offensive metrics and adding defense into the equation:
By park-adjusted offensive metrics, Trout was the best hitter in the American League, while Donaldson ranked fourth. Meanwhile, Donaldson was the better fielder, per Baseball Info Solutions’s Defensive Runs Saved: He graded as 11 runs better than the average third baseman, compared to Trout’s five runs above the average center fielder. Both players played premium positions, though, and that relatively small defensive gap isn’t enough to override Trout’s offensive advantage. By both versions of Wins Above Replacement, Trout has the edge.
It’s an interesting conundrum for voters to be in, as both players have strong cases. Donaldson will likely win, but the race is not as cut-and-dry as the playoff narrative would suggest.
The American League Cy Young Award battle between David Price and Dallas Keuchel could feature another tight battle like last year’s race between Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez.
Kluber won that race by 10 total points and had four more first-place votes than Hernandez. Price and Keuchel are just as evenly matched, as they were separated by 0.3 in FanGraphs‘ WAR. Keuchel had 11.2 more innings pitched, while Price had a lower ERA (2.45 to 2.73) and more strikeouts (225 to 216).
The young kids in the AL, the Houston Astros’ Carlos Correa, Cleveland Indians’ Francisco Lindor and Minnesota Twins’ Miguel Sano, would all be deserving winners in most years. All three shone in different ways but were no less impactful.
Correa has the narrative of being Houston’s new star player, helping the Astros reach the playoffs and being spectacular with a .345 on-base percentage, .512 slugging percentage and 22 home runs in 99 games.
The 21-year-old has already collected one prestigious award, being named the Sporting News‘ Rookie of the Year as voted on by a panel of 176 American League players.
In the Sporting News’ report by Ryan Fagan, Astros manager A.J. Hinch described some of the things he had heard about Correa:
When a guy’s 20, we always look back to the past on how guys relate a little bit or look like previous players. So, with Carlos being a tall shortstop, slender, lean, you know the comparisons I heard. Cal Ripken. I heard (Troy) Tulowitzki. I heard (Derek) Jeter and A-Rod. All we’ve ever wanted him to be is Carlos Correa. I’m not big on putting limitations on guys or expectations. I just want him to be his best.
Sano was in some ways more impressive with the bat, hitting 18 homers with a .530 slugging percentage and .385 on-base percentage. His biggest problem is lack of playing time, as he was only able to play in 80 games after being called up in July.
Lindor doesn’t have the prodigious power of Sano or Correa, but the 21-year-old posted a .313/.353/.482 slash line with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He was also a star defender at shortstop, leading all AL players at the position with 10 defensive runs saved and a 10.5 UZR.
Going by FanGraphs’ WAR, Lindor led all AL rookies with a 4.6 mark, ahead of Correa (3.3) and Sano (2.0).
That will be the warm-up act next week, leading into the NL Cy Young vote featuring the Los Angeles duo of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke along with the Chicago Cubs’ breakout superstar, Jake Arrieta.
Arrieta has the second-half rise that no one can touch, as noted by Steve Melewski of MASN:
Greinke, who previously won a Cy Young in 2009 with the Kansas City Royals, joined a historic group of players after posting his second season with at least 200 innings and an ERA+ of 200, per Baseball-Reference.com:
Yet Greinke was the Dodgers’ Game 2 starter in the postseason because two-time defending NL Cy Young winner Kershaw seemed to find new highs he hadn’t yet hit in his illustrious career, per Ace of MLB Stats:
Awards voting is easy to criticize because there is always a case to make for someone. This year feels like a nightmare in so many categories because of how deep the talent pool is to choose from. There are players left out of all these groups who could easily have finished second or third in most years.
The votes are being calculated, and all the anticipation will provide answers starting next week. Now that the finalists are known, let the furious debating begin.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless noted otherwise.
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