Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart just couldn’t help themselves when it came to Zack Greinke.
When the Arizona Diamondbacks chief baseball officer and general manager saw the chance to bring the righty to the desert and punch a Greinke-sized hole in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ rotation, they pounced—even if the price tag was a staggering $206.5 million including deferred money.
The crazy part about the D-backs’ big-money play for Greinke is that it’s not even the move that could end up causing the club the most remorse.
The winter shopping season isn’t over just yet, but already, LaRussa and Stewart aren’t the only big league execs whose free-agent and trade activity could prove more regrettable than attending a wedding in Game of Thrones.
The three teams who crack this list all acquired top-tier free-agent and or trade targets who have the potential to make a decisive impact in 2016. The problem is that all three clubs did so while paying an exorbitant sum of money which could end up hamstringing the respective franchises down the line.
Let’s get this thing started with none other than the brass at Chase Field.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-backs sure aren’t messing around.
Having assembled a rotation headlined by Greinke, Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin and a batting order anchored by Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, this team is all in.
In 2016, the D-backs will be trotting out a squad that has the potential to cause fits for the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.
The question is whether Arizona mortgaged the franchise’s future for a potentially brief window of opportunity.
In order to snatch Greinke from the Dodgers’ grasp, the team had to dish out a six-year, $206.5 million pact. That’s a ton of years and dollars to hand out to anybody—even a pitcher as supremely talented as Greinke, who is fresh off a season in which he posted a 1.66 ERA.
Here’s a bit of context to explain just how impressive that figure was:
But his new deal will carry Greinke through his age-38 season. As Mark Whicker of the Los Angeles Daily News argued, even the heavy-spending Dodgers and their president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman, “can’t be rationally criticized for failing to match” that commitment.
There’s been no shortage of rational criticism for the D-backs’ decision to bring in Miller and minor league left-hander Gabe Speier from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for outfielder Ender Inciarte, 2015 No. 1 pick Dansby Swanson and right-handed pitching prospect Aaron Blair.
ESPN.com’s Keith Law dubbed the acquisition cost “comically high,” noting that Arizona was potentially swapping 18 years of big league control for three seasons of Miller.
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, one major league executive flat-out roasted the move: “Worst trade I’ve ever seen.”
From this early juncture, it’s much too soon to make such an assessment. But one thing is for certain: The D-backs’ offseason of gambling is either going to pay major dividends in the immediate future or cripple the franchise for years to come.
Chicago Cubs
Only a fool would question the wisdom of Theo Epstein.
With that qualification in mind, let’s go ahead and question the wisdom of the Cubs president of baseball operations.
From the stockpile of high-upside position players to the team’s sneaky-good rotation, the Cubs are a rising force. But that doesn’t mean that Epstein is immune to making the rare, yet expensive, misstep or two.
It starts with Ben Zobrist.
The switch-hitter is the official Swiss Army Knife of baseball, but his four-year, $56 million deal could get ugly on the back side.
Both of the final two years of that agreement could be an issue for Chicago. In 2018, when Zobrist will turn 37 in May, the utility man will be making a cool $16 million. The year after that, he’ll rake in $12 million.
While those salaries sound awfully high for a player of that age, the counterargument is that the Cubs will gladly absorb that money if Zobrist helps lead the team to a World Series before then.
It’s the team’s deal for Jason Heyward that looms as a scarier liability.
No one is debating the worth of the 26-year-old’s glove.
The debate is over his worth as a player, as one manager explained to Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated:
The problem with Jason Heyward is that the things you value the most about him now are the things you are not going to have at the back half of the contract: youth and defense. Over time, those only get worse. I would love to have him on a high [average annual value] over a short period of time—give me just his best years—but that’s not going to happen. If I did have him, I would bat him second or fifth, not in the middle. He’s not that kind of hitter. Listen, I get the metrics. I really do. But let’s remember, he’s a corner outfielder. He doesn’t play in the middle. You better love, love, love corner outfield defense to sign him.
Back at the winter meetings, that skipper guessed that Heyward would reel in an eight-year, $144 million payout. The outfielder smashed that prediction, netting an eight-year, $184 haul from the Cubs—with opt-out clauses after the third and fourth seasons to boot.
That’s one expensive No. 2 hitter—especially since so many other prime-time outfielders can’t seem to get so much as a bite on the free-agent market. With New Year’s rapidly approaching, here’s a look at the premier guys capable of patrolling an outfield corner and who remain unaccounted for:
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Chris Davis
- Alex Gordon
- Justin Upton
As the winter wears on, the negotiating power for all those stars just keeps on waning. Ultimately, there’s a real chance that a couple of those players will wind up without a seat in the offseason game of outfield musical chairs.
As a result, they could be forced to settle for a contract that is just a drop in the bucket compared to what the Cubs guaranteed Heyward.
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox badly needed an ace when the offseason began.
And the American League East heavyweights checked that bullet point off the organizational to-do list in a big way, inking David Price to a seven-year, $217 million deal.
If that sticker price sounds egregious, that’s probably because it was. Just let Bob Nightengale of USA Today provide the details.
“Price, a native of Murfreesboro, Tenn., was enamored with joining the [St. Louis] Cardinals, who have reached the postseason the last five seasons, with two pennants and a World Series title. Yet, the Red Sox’s offer simply was too strong for him to refuse.”
So, just how strong was too strong?
According to Nightengale, the Red Sox outbid the Redbirds by “at least $30 million.” Even in the absurdly extravagant world that is the free-agent marketplace, that’s a dramatic overpay on the Red Sox’s part. What’s more, the team sweetened the deal by granting Price the power to bolt town after the 2018 season via an opt-out clause.
The Red Sox got their ace. so good on them. But he’s an ace who’s never won a postseason start and whose seven-year deal costs just three million less than what the Giants will be paying Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija combined for 11 years of employment.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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