The sure thing is present on the ballot.
So are a couple of guys who will spark debates about who was better over the course of their storied careers. There is also a fan favorite with plenty of clips for his highlight reel among the first-timers appearing on Major League Baseball’s Hall of Fame ballot.
Baseball’s Hall of Fame released its ballot for 2016 induction Monday, and 15 newcomers are on it along with holdovers such as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling and Tim Raines among others.
Ken Griffey Jr. is the no-brainer inductee among the first-time candidates. Closers Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner might not get in on their first try, but both have strong cases for eventual inclusion into the Hall. So does Jim Edmonds, who was not the great all-around player Griffey was but is certainly deserving of his share of votes to accompany his highlight-worthy catches.
Aside from those four ballot newcomers, the Hall of Fame included Garret Anderson, Brad Ausmus, Luis Castillo, David Eckstein, Troy Glaus, Mark Grudzielanek, Mike Hampton, Jason Kendall, Mike Lowell, Mike Sweeney and Randy Winn.
Some of those players ended their careers as very good major leaguers but not Hall of Fame-worthy ones. A decent number of them could fall off the ballot after one year because they won’t get the necessary five percent of the vote to remain in the running.
While chances are slim for many, Griffey could end up being a nearly unanimous pick. What might hold him back from 100 percent? That would be the second half of his career, which was good—he had a 117 OPS+ in his final 11 seasons—but far from great.
The first 11 campaigns of Griffey’s 22-year career were nothing short of spectacular. He was an All-Star in 10 of those 11 years, missing out only during his rookie season of 1989. He led the American League in home runs four times and hit 398 total. He won the league’s MVP once and finished in the top 10 six other times. He also won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves and seven Silver Slugger awards.
More intangible things tell us that Griffey helped change the way baseball marketed itself to the general public. His memorable “Griffey In ’96” Nike advertising campaign, which featured him in his signature backward Seattle Mariners cap, was the stuff of marketing legend.
And there was his line of baseball video games for Nintendo, the first of which sold more than one million copies, and his unforgettable guest appearance on The Simpsons’ “Homer at the Bat” episode in 1992.
Those things should not be discounted when considering Griffey’s impact on the sport and especially on an entire generation of baseball fans.
Griffey’s numbers speak for themselves, but he meant more than just his on-field exploits during his prime. His deserving status as a first-ballot Hall of Famer is an easy call.
Hoffman is considered one of the best closers to ever pitch a ninth inning. His 601 saves, 2.87 ERA and 141 ERA+ speak to how effective he was. He also had nine seasons of at least 40 saves.
Hoffman will almost certainly get into the Hall of Fame eventually, but a few things are working against his getting in on the first ballot. First, he was not very good when the stage was at its biggest, as he blew two of his six career playoff save opportunities, had a loss in another game and blew the save and took the loss in a Game 163 loss to the Colorado Rockies in 2007.
Second, Baseball Writers’ Association of America voters typically have a more difficult time evaluating relievers more than any other position. Hoffman knows that will make things tough.
“There’s going to be that group [of voters] that won’t vote for somebody in their first year,” Hoffman told MLB.com’s Barry Bloom in a recent interview. “Is that going to be indicative of where the vote goes after that? I don’t know. Then there’s another group that doesn’t know how to handle relief pitchers. There are no guarantees.”
A third thing stifling Hoffman’s first-ballot chances is Wagner’s presence. He was the more dominant closer, though he did not have the counting stats Hoffman accumulated—most notably saves. Wagner had 422.
Despite trailing Hoffman by 179 saves, Wagner had a better ERA (2.31), a lower opponents’ slash line (.187/.262/.296 against Hoffman’s .211/.267/.342) and a higher strikeout rate per nine innings (11.9 against Hoffman’s 9.4). Wagner also had a better end to his career, posting a 1.43 ERA, 275 ERA+ and 13.5 strikeouts per nine in his final season.
This gives Wagner a strong case for Hall of Fame election, though he is highly unlikely to make it on the first ballot. Working against him, aside from his status as a reliever, is that Wagner had similar results to Hoffman in the postseason with his 10.03 ERA in 11.2 innings.
Edmonds is the second-best position player of the newcomers. Some voters like longevity; others look at a player’s prime seasons as a better gauge of his greatness, and Edmonds appeals in both categories, for the most part.
In the five seasons from 2000 to 2004, Edmonds was truly great. Aside from being an elite defensive center fielder, he had a .298/.410/.593 slash line, a 1.003 OPS, 181 home runs and 157 OPS+. He also averaged 6.4 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference.com, and 6.8 WAR, according to FanGraphs, per season during that span.
That is a small sample of campaigns, but from 1995 through 2005, Edmonds ranks third in FanGraphs’ WAR behind Bonds and Alex Rodriguez with 58.8. That makes Edmonds’ Hall of Fame case quite impressive, though his chances at inclusion after one year on the ballot still seem slim as increasing votes for some of the holdovers and the 10-player voting limit may hold down his total.
This ballot is loaded with Hall of Fame-worthy talent, but the performance-enhancing drug issue still clouds the voting and probably will not allow for more than Griffey and maybe Piazza this time around. However, of the first-timers on this ballot, the aforementioned four players have the strongest cases.
Now we wait to see how the voting pool swings when results are announced January 6.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired first-hand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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