The market for starting pitching has begun to move, with J.A. Happ signing with the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday and Jordan Zimmermann agreeing to a deal with the Detroit Tigers on Sunday.
They’re significant deals for significant money, as Zimmermann‘s reported $110 million-for-five-years price tag caused Matt Ehalt of the Record to tweet:
Exactly. The Happ (for three years, $36 million) and Zimmermann signings made news for the teams that signed them and for others shopping in the midlevel pitching market. But it’s David Price, Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto who will top the market and make a team a big winter winner.
Especially Price.
Winter winners often don’t become summer winners. But that won’t stop us from speculating right up until Price signs a contract that many are suggesting could approach or top the free-agent pitcher record $210 million the Washington Nationals gave Max Scherzer last January.
Scherzer was 30 years old and had one Cy Young and one fifth-place finish on his record. Price is 30 years old and has one Cy Young and two second-place finishes.
But this isn’t about Scherzer vs. Price, because Scherzer isn’t available on this winter’s market. Price is, and rather than guess at exactly how much money he’ll get—let’s just say it will be a whole lot—we’re going to try to guess where he might go.
Some of this is based on reports. Some of it is based on what we’ve heard. Some of it is just plain guesswork. If we’ve learned anything about free agency, it’s that some teams and some agents disguise their strategies so well that many reports and much of what we’ve heard turn out later not to be totally right.
So here goes, with the teams listed in order of which ones we give the best chance of landing the biggest free agent out there this winter:
1. Boston Red Sox: Back in August, shortly after Dave Dombrowski took over at Fenway, Bleacher Report asked me to put together his plan to rebuild the Red Sox. I know Dombrowski well, and I knew he wasn’t going to tell me or any other reporter his exact plans. But I also knew signing a high-profile starter would be high on his list.
“Dombrowski’s move to Boston should be great news for David Price,” I wrote then, and it’s no less true now. Whether Price actually ends up in Boston, the Red Sox are widely reported and expected to be preparing a bid that will top (and perhaps help set) the market for the left-hander Dombrowski once traded for when he was running the Detroit Tigers.
One National League general manager speculated to Peter Gammons that Dombrowski‘s bid will be $30 million-$40 million higher than anyone else’s. I can believe it because, in many ways, Price is the best possible ace Dombrowski could sign. He’s comfortable pitching in the American League East and comfortable leading a rotation.
While there’s been strong speculation the Red Sox will bid the most money, there’s also been lots of talk Price would prefer to sign elsewhere. He might, but I can’t see him being scared of Boston and I can see him going for the biggest money.
So the Red Sox are the top choice, although I wouldn’t put my own money on it.
2. Chicago Cubs: Back before everybody was rushing to predict Price will sign with the Red Sox, plenty were just as convinced he was headed to the Cubs. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports wrote just three weeks ago that two agents for other pitchers were calling Price to the Cubs and that one National League general manager told him Price prefers the Cubs.
All that’s happened since then is Cubs president Theo Epstein suggesting his offseason budget isn’t as big as everyone thinks and others suggesting (perhaps rightly) the Red Sox are willing to spend more money than anyone.
The Cubs could certainly use Price. But with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester already topping their rotation, their need for him would seem to be a little less dire than the Red Sox’s need.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: If the Dodgers really want Price, it’s hard to see them getting outbid by $30 million-$40 million—by the Red Sox or by anyone else. If Greinke signs elsewhere, you could argue the Dodgers should really want Price.
Dodgers boss Andrew Friedman is just as good as Dombrowski at hiding his real plans, but keeping Greinke might well be his preference. With little rotation certainty beyond Clayton Kershaw, and with the expectations that come with a $300 million payroll, it would seem Friedman had better get one of the big free agents.
4. St. Louis Cardinals: They fit geographically, since Price is from Nashville. They have a need, with Lance Lynn on the shelf for 2016. But are the Cardinals really ready to play with big money at the top of the market? We’ll see.
5. San Francisco Giants: The Giants would need to stretch their budget a little to sign either Price or Greinke, and the early suggestions had them preferring Greinke if they do stretch. But Greinke could stay with the Dodgers, and perhaps the Giants could be convinced to stretch for Price.
6. Washington Nationals: Zimmermann is already gone. Stephen Strasburg can be a free agent after 2016. The Nationals have some strong young arms, but they also have an owner with lots of money and a desire to win soon. Still, could they really pay out the top two free-agent pitching contracts?
7. Los Angeles Angels: I’m not going to be surprised again if Arte Moreno decides he wants a top free agent. His Angels already have two $20 million starters in their 2016 rotation, but both C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver can be free agents after that.
8. New York Yankees: Should the Yankees really be this low on the list? Yes, only because Hal Steinbrenner has been so open and so consistent with his desire to stay away from the biggest free agents. Finally, we believe him—but not enough to leave the Yankees off the list entirely.
9. The field: The Blue Jays and Tigers would seem to be out. The Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles don’t seem to have room in their budget. The Seattle Mariners need hitters. The Texas Rangers just traded for Cole Hamels. Free agency often comes with surprises, and maybe the chase for Price will include another one.
Or maybe the Red Sox really will just outbid everyone else.
Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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