Prospective MLB suitors, meet Justin Upton—outfielder, All-Star, enigma. Got your checkbooks out?
Seriously, you should get them out. Because we’re talking about a 28-year-old with wheels, a strong arm and 30-home run power. Those players don’t come around every offseason, not in today’s pitching-dominated climate.
But—could you sense there was a “but” coming?—Upton trails questions, too. Chief among them: Can he be a true middle-of-the-order force for a contender, worthy of the Brink’s-truck payday he’s sure to receive?
Let’s start by making the case for Upton.
A No. 1 overall pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2005, he’s a prototypical five-tool talent. In 2014, with the Atlanta Braves, he bashed 29 home runs to go along with 102 RBI and an .833 OPS, and he’s hit 190 home runs through his age-27 season.
If you like WAR, Upton has amassed 12.7 since 2012, tied for 19th best among MLB outfielders, per FanGraphs. He swiped 19 bases last year, his highest total since 2011 when he finished fourth in National League MVP voting. And he was just named a Gold Glove finalist, for what that’s worth.
He’s the complete package, in other words, a man who does almost everything well and some things exceptionally well. And he might not have maximized his potential. It’s possible there’s a monster, breakout season lurking in his bat.
That, of course, implies Upton hasn’t broken out yet. And, indeed, as much success as he’s enjoyed, it feels like he’s never fully lived up to the hype that followed him when the D’Backs plucked him out of high school.
For one, Upton strikes out a lot—more than 150 times in each of the last three seasons. And last season, his OPS dropped nearly 40 points.
It’s tempting to attribute that to the December trade that sent him from Atlanta to the San Diego Padres and pitcher-friendly Petco Park. But Upton actually posted better numbers across the board at Petco, including an .866 OPS, compared to a .714 mark on the road.
“Everyone says [Petco is] big, but I don’t think so,” Upton said, per Fox Sports. “I think it plays pretty fair. I’ve enjoyed quite a bit of success here. I enjoy playing here. I think the park is great.”
There’s no debate as to whether Upton is talented, in San Diego or anywhere else. But can he be that guy, the offensive linchpin for a 2016 World Series hopeful?
The projection systems aren’t bullish. Steamer posits a .247/.333/.437 slash line with 25 home runs, per FanGraphs. Add the speed and defense, and that’s valuable—but is it worth the six- or seven-year, nine-figure commitment Upton is sure to command?
No, but that’s an unfair way of posing the question. That projection isn’t crazy, but it is tinged with pessimism. It feels like a floor rather than a ceiling.
Contenders in the market for outfielders will have other top-shelf options to sift through. Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes both bested Upton in the power department last year. Assuming he opts of of his contract with the Kansas City Royals, Alex Gordon is a four-time Gold Glove winner with a championship pedigree. And Jason Heyward, also an elite defender, is nearly two years Upton’s junior.
A team will open its wallet for Upton, however, and when it does, it’ll be banking—quite literally—on him making the jump from star to superstar, particularly at the plate.
That wouldn’t be unprecedented. As a case study, let’s examine a toolsy, highly touted player of relatively recent vintage: Carlos Beltran.
Beltran had already won an American League Rookie of the Year Award and made two All-Star teams by his 28th birthday. But he’d never eclipsed 40 dingers until 2006, his age-29 season, when he set career highs in home runs (41), RBI (116) and OPS (.982).
That doesn’t guarantee Upton will do the same, but it indicates it’s more than a hot-stove fever dream.
Here’s another interesting twist: What if Upton put together that career-making year on Beltran’s current club, the New York Yankees?
The Yanks and Upton have been linked by various sources, including the Sporting News’ Alec Brzezinski, who suggested the right-handed swinger “could hit 30 home runs with Yankee Stadium as his home park.”
In addition, the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels seem like decent fits, and the Chicago White Sox could use outfield help, as could the Seattle Mariners. Basically, expect anyone with two nickels to rub together to at least pick up the phone.
“Everyone who has been around Justin knows that that is real power,” interim Padres manager Pat Murphy said in August, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “That’s thoroughbred power.”
Ultimately, one team will climb aboard and ride that horse. And while there are no guarantees in baseball, let alone free-agent contracts, it says here Upton will gallop far and fast—first into an open checkbook, and then toward superstardom.
All statistics current as of Nov. 3 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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