The Chicago Cubs have not been world champions since the glory days of 1908. They have not won a pennant since 1945.
Some individuals are optimistic that 2011 will be the year that the Cubs finally win the pennant. No one dares to predict that they will win the World Series.
The Cubs may challenge for the Central Division crown, but they will have to do it without a fifth starter.
What, you say? Isn’t Carlos Silva the Cubs’ fifth starter?
That is exactly why the Cubs’ pitching may be a problem.
The Seattle Mariners, an organization that, like the Cubs, managed to win a record 116 regular season games and not win the World Series, sent Carlos Silva to Chicago in exchange for Milton Bradley in Dec. 2009. Both teams hoped that a change of scenery would help the players.
In 2010, Silva was 10-6, but as we all know, a pitcher’s won-lost record can be deceiving (see Cy Young Award winner and ERA leader Felix Hernandez). Silva had a 103 ERA+, which is slightly above average, but that’s where it ends.
Silva averaged only 5.4 innings over 21 starts. He worked 113 innings and allowed 120 hits and 24 walks for a 1.274 WHIP.
Today, managers and pitching coaches love pitcher who can “eat up innings.” Forget about effectiveness. He can give us innings. Silva has trouble doing even that.
Overall, 2010 was a season that would rank Silva in the middle of starting pitchers, but it was the best season he has had since 2005 with the Minnesota Twins, when he was 9-8 with a 130 ERA+ and a 1.173 WHIP.
The Cubs are fooling themselves and their fans if they are counting on Silva, even as a fifth starter.
Now 32 years old, Silva is in his eighth full season. He has had ERAs below 4.19 only twice in his career. The first time was during his rookie season with the Philadelphia Phillies in limited duty, and the second time was in 2005 with the Twins.
An examination of Silva’s lifetime record is revealing. He has won 70 games. He has lost 70 games. Fine—that is acceptable for a fifth starter.
But Silva has a 4.68 ERA and a 93 ERA+. He has allowed 1,496 hits in 1,241.2 innings or 10.8 hits per nine innings.
His WHIP of 1.397 is that “low” only because he has great control. The problem is that batters tee off on him because they know he’s always around the strike zone.
A popular sports site ranks Silva 129th among 150 major league starting pitchers. Ranked just above Silva is Arizona’s young Barry Enright, and ranked just below Silva is Jason Marquis.
Carlos Silva does not project to get any better. He is not the answer to the Cubs’ need for a fifth starter, and if it weren’t for the paucity of starting pitching in baseball, it is doubtful that he would still be on a major league roster.
References
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