Relax. Take a stroll outside. MLB games have paused for All-Star festivities, giving daily fantasy players a four-day reprieve.
Use some of that free time to refresh and reset for the second half, where savvy gamers have larger sample sizes to use to their advantage. Don’t, however, take the entire time off from researching. The break presents the perfect opportunity to reflect on the opening half and preview the final two-plus months.
Daily players are accustomed to studying specific splits and matchups, but let’s take a step back and examine some top sluggers from a macro perspective. It’s easy to get swept up in a hot or cold streak during the daily grind, but few players will mirror their early results. Baseball simply doesn’t operate at such a linear level.
Rest-of-season projections won’t guide Friday’s slate, but a larger understanding will guide overall decisions throughout the second half.
Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
Bryce Harper is eventually going to cool down. Unless he doesn’t.
The 22-year-old took a cavernous leap to superstardom during the first half, hitting .341/.466/.707 with 26 homers and an MLB-best 216 weighted runs created plus (wRC+). A 100 wRC+ is considered average, making Harper more valuable than two above-average batters combined.
He’s currently enjoying the best offensive season of the decade. Nobody has notched a slugging percentage above .700 since Barry Bonds netted an .812 clip in 2004. If he keeps going deep with such regularity, as noted by ESPN Stats & Info, he’ll set a record that’s even more impressive in the modern, power-condensed era.
Harper went bananas and belted 13 long balls in May, but April represents his worst month with a .985 OPS. He has also brandished tremendous plate discipline with a 18.4 walk percentage and diminished 20.6 strikeout percentage.
The best case for a second-half decline is that no human being can possibly maintain his stellar rate during the post-steroid era. The average especially smells fishy for someone who has never hit above .275, which will certainly change even if he goes a more reasonable .290-.300 going forward.
Even with regression, he’ll remain one of baseball’s top superstars who will always cost a premium regardless of the opponent. Due to his exorbitant price tag, which won’t change if he’s merely awesome instead of otherworldly, save him for when fed a terrible pitcher.
Projections: .295/.390/.540, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 40 R, 4 SB
Best Used: Against poor pitcher in cash contests when punting second starter or other position
Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Albert Pujols’ on-base percentage has dropped in six straight seasons, and the trend remains in jeopardy. Most of his other numbers followed the decline before avenging a poor 2013 with a solid 2014.
This year, he looks like vintage Pujols in the power department, clobbering 23 of his 26 homers since May 1. Along with hitting .303/.395/.737 with 13 homers during a scorching June, he drew 13 walks while striking out eight times.
Yet he still possesses a career-low .256 batting average. Along with a heavier emphasis on defensive shifting, the former MVP can blame a .217 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), MLB’s third-lowest rate.
On one hand, gradually fading veterans usually don’t gain such a spirited second burst at age 35. Pujols hasn’t hit 40 homers since 2010, so June’s travel back in time likely won’t happen again.
On the other hand, the legend entered spring training healthy for the first time in years. Daily gamers would prefer the power over more hits, but expect his numbers to even out. Sorting a .921 OPS against righties, he’ll remain a high-level choice on most nights.
Projections: .270/.335/.500, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 39 R, 1 SB
Best Used: Against weak righties vulnerable to long balls
Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
It took some time, but Kris Bryant proved worth the wait.
The Chicago Cubs let the hype build until mid-April, when they promoted the blue-chip prospect with an added year of service time under their belt. Although he hit well from the start, the third baseman didn’t register his first MLB homer until May 9.
Skip ahead two months, and he’s hitting .269/.376/.472 with 12 long balls, eight steals and a 136 wRC+. Rarely does anything so hotly anticipated deliver, but Bryant has warranted all the hoopla.
Regularly batting third behind Anthony Rizzo, Bryant will remain saddled atop DraftKings’ price listings. He has also proven capable against all challengers, collecting a .380 on-base percentage against righties and a .554 slugging percentage versus southpaws.
Just beware the potential for a major slump or two. He’ll struggle to keep hitting .269 while ending 29.7 percent of his plate appearances in strikeouts. His .369 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will fall, but the power, speed and plate discipline won’t go anywhere.
Projections: .255/.355/.490, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 40 R, 6 SB
Best Used: Against subpar starter with wind blowing out of Wrigley Field
Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners
What the heck happened to Robinson Cano?
The career .306/.354/.492 hitter has gone MIA, batting .251/.290/.370 with six homers and an 85 wRC+. Barring an unbelievable half, his average will finish below .300 for the first time since 2008.
His nightmarish season is tough to explain. The star second baseman is carrying a career-high 17.3 strikeout percentage and his worst walk rate (4.6 percent) since 2009. Superstars rarely go from front-line option to below-average contributor without some advanced notice or a significant injury.
While the 32-year-old has never went on the disabled list, he admitted to suffering from a stomach ailment over the past year, per USA Today‘s Jorge L. Ortiz.
“It still affects me,” Cano said. “Sometimes you drink water and it makes you feel like vomiting. I can’t eat the same way I did. It’s hard to deal with, especially being the first time this has happened to me. Sometimes I eat only once a day before playing, because I feel full. And you just don’t have the same energy.”
If there’s any sign of optimism, he’s hitting .327 with two homers during a dozen July games. He also boasts a career .318/.366/.528 slash line after the All-Star break, so don’t give up on the star second baseman just yet. Eye his matchups after the break, as he should remain affordable given his mighty struggles.
Projections: .285/.340/.440, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 33 R, 4 SB
Best Used: Against righties while price remains reasonable as he shows life.
Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
Although a better seasonal rotisserie player than daily option, shortstop Ian Desmond compiled three straight 20/20 seasons. Entering the break with seven homers and five steals, that streak is about to snap.
If only that was his biggest problem. The 29-year-old is batting an abysmal .211/.255/.334 with a 4.9 walk percentage and 28.4 strikeout percentage. Only there for his offense, he’s on the hook for 20 errors and a minus-0.9 WAR.
This will mark the third consecutive year his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage drop. His 15.6 line-drive percentage and 13.9 infield-fly rate don’t support a rebound anytime soon.
How much longer will Washington put up with his below-replacement play before turning to Trea Turner, a top shortstop prospect acquired to eventually replace Desmond? If that day doesn’t come until next season, can daily players turn to the slumping starter with any confidence?
Only when priced significantly low. Don’t treat Desmond like an above-average shortstop unless he proves otherwise.
Projections: .250/.300/.395, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 33 R, 7 SB
Beat Used: As a punt play
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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