In this column yesterday I went on and on about how exciting it was to see former Athletic greats Barry Zito and Tim Hudson take the mound for opposing sides in Oakland. I thought Zito would get shelled and Hudson would guide his team to victory with a quality start.
Whoops!
The Giants beat the A’s 14-10, and both Zito and Hudson were on ice by the start of the third inning.
However, I clearly haven’t learned my lesson, because I again went with a former Oakland Athletic starter in today’s lineup. Here it is:
James Shields ($9,000) vs. Diamondbacks and Gio Gonzalez ($8,300) vs. Phillies
Let’s start with Big Game James Shields. The former Royal, Ray (and Devil Ray) is enjoying a quality season with San Diego. According to Baseball Reference, he’s currently striking out 9.6 batters per nine innings. That’s well above his career average of 7.8 whiffs per nine innings. Unfortunately, he’s walking 3.5 hitters per nine, a full walk more than his career average.
A higher strikeout and walk rate indicate a higher total pitch count per batter. However, per Baseball Reference, Shields has gone five or more innings in all but one game this season. He’s not piling up the complete games like he did in 2011, but he’s a safe start.
The Diamondbacks are a quality hitting team. According to Fan Graphs, they rank between 10th and 15th in the league in several offensive categories. However, if Shields can keep the ball in the yard, he should have success. According to ESPN, in 114 career at-bats against Shields, these Diamondbacks have hit just .228, but with eight dingers.
Gio Gonzalez and the Nationals host the Phillies today. Per DraftKings, the last time Gonzalez pitched against Philadelphia he went seven innings, allowed two runs, and struck out 12 for a 35.6 point fantasy day. That was less than two weeks ago.
I’m not saying he’ll strike out a dozen more from the City of Brotherly Love, but he should thrive at home against a weak offensive club. The Phillies rank in the bottom five in the league in road OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ according to Fan Graphs. He’s also the second most likely starter to get a win (which nets four fantasy points) by number Fire’s daily MLB projections.
Mike Trout ($4,900) vs. Mariners
Isn’t daily fantasy fun! How cool is it that I get to put together a lineup with Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Yoenis Cespedes as the starting outfield? It’s too bad arm strength isn’t a category.
Anyway, Trout has been on a roll lately. Per DraftKings, the reigning AL MVP is averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games. He’s relatively cheap considering he’s still the consensus best player in the world. My only issue with Trout is that he makes insane plays like this robbed home run from last night look routine.
No Lineup Stack Today?
This is a rare occasion where I spread my offensive players around the league. This lineup is more suited for a DraftKings 50/50, H2H or Double Up than a Guaranteed Prize Pool. If I were to stack any lineup, it’d probably be the Dodgers. Though the division is all but wrapped up (the magic number is currently two), they should try to win one more game before playing a four game series in San Francisco.
Los Angeles is in Denver where the air is thin and routine fly balls are commonly mistaken for home runs. Chris Rusin, the Rockies’ starter, is 5-9 with a 5.39 season ERA. Last night, the Rockies won 8-6 on a walk-off home run. I’d expect a similar offensive output from both of these rosters.
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