Two starts into his first postseason, it’s safe to say Dallas Keuchel likes October. And October likes him back.
After twirling six shutout innings in the Houston Astros‘ 3-0 Wild Card Game win at Yankee Stadium, Keuchel offered a heck of an encore in front of a raucous, beard-wearing sellout crowd at Minute Maid Park on Sunday.
The hirsute southpaw allowed just a single run through seven strong frames, striking out seven and scattering five hits as the Astros cruised to a 4-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals.
Houston now holds a 2-1 edge in the best-of-five division series and can send the defending AL champs packing with a win in Game 4 on Monday.
For now, the ‘Stros and their fans can sit back and appreciate Keuchel, who is emerging as a difference-maker and elevating Houston above the rest of the Junior Circuit playoff pack.
Talented as they are, the Royals’ lack of a true ace has been exposed in this series, with Yordano Ventura, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez vacillating between mediocre and passable in Games 1-3.
The Toronto Blue Jays, whose season is on the brink heading into Sunday evening’s must-win Game 3, have David Price. But he dropped Game 1 of that series, yielding five earned runs.
The Texas Rangers have Cole Hamels, but he, too, looked hittable in his only playoff start so far, coughing up four runs in a Game 2 no-decision.
Of the AL studs, only Keuchel has been genuinely transcendent. He’s pitching like a man capable of carrying his club to the Fall Classic finish line, as MLB.com’s Richard Justice highlighted:
There’s a dusting of hyperbole in Justice’s analysis. After all, we just watched a fella named Madison Bumgarner take a team on his back last October. Really, it happens to some degree almost every year.
But the point is, Keuchel has performed well enough to inspire that brand of overstatement. After a Cy Young-caliber regular season, he has transferred his dominance into MLB’s annual autumn tournament. And suddenly the Astros, a surprise contender who nearly melted down before sneaking in as the second wild card, are legitimate World Series hopefuls.
Keuchel, whose fastball tops out in the low 90s, succeeded on Sunday with the blueprint he followed all season: changing speeds, using his wicked breaking pitches and getting hitters to chase out of the zone.
“Obviously he’s not going to blow the doors off anybody on the radar gun, but he doesn’t need to,” Astros catcher Jason Castro said prior to Game 3, per Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. “Guys look out there and see numbers right around 90, and it almost lulls them into a false sense of security. And then he takes advantage with his incredible late movement. Hitters face guys like Dallas and say, ‘Man, I thought I saw the ball pretty well.’ But they don’t get hits off him.'”
Keuchel was touched for a run in the fourth inning, when Lorenzo Cain launched one into Minute Maid’s short left field porch, giving the Royals a 1-0 lead. Houston, however, answered with two in the fifth and insurance runs in the sixth and seventh.
Keuchel even got the last laugh on Cain, striking him out with a runner at third to end the seventh.
If there’s any knock on Keuchel so far, it’s that he hasn’t pitched impressively deep into either playoff start. In the Wild Card Game, he was going on three days’ rest for the first time all season, so the decision to pull him after six made sense.
On Sunday, he threw a season-high 124 pitches and once again handed the ball to the pen. There’s no shame in that; no one’s going to throw a complete game every time out.
But Houston’s bullpen was exposed down the stretch, posting a 5.61 ERA in September and October. And closer Luke Gregerson yielded a solo shot to Alex Gordon in the ninth on Sunday before nailing down the save.
If Keuchel can keep his pitch count down and go eight or even nine in his next outing—which would come in the American League Championship Series—that’s about all he could do to improve.
We’re quibbling, though, nitpicking near-perfection. Keuchel pitched the Astros into the Wild Card Game, then he pitched them into the division series. On Sunday, he pitched them to the brink of the ALCS.
Almost no one thought the Astros would be in this position coming into spring. Yet here they are. And while the offense has done its job with dingers and timely knocks, they’ve largely got their ace—currently the ace of the AL—to thank.
Welcome to October, Dallas Keuchel. Pull up a seat and stay a while.
All statistics current as of Oct. 11 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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