The Atlanta Braves continue to make the long-term future their focus after trading Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier to the Arizona Diamondbacks for 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson, outfielder Ender Inciarte and pitching prospect Aaron Blair.
It’s been no secret that the Braves are trying to build for the future. They have already traded Andrelton Simmons to the Los Angeles Angels this offseason, so general manager John Coppolella left no doubt the “For Sale” sign was on the front yard.
Fortunately for the Braves, Coppolella didn’t sell short on Miller. He got a tremendous haul for Miller, who was coming off his best season in the big leagues with a 3.02 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 205.1 innings pitched.
Inciarte, who has five years of team control left, is the only player with big league experience Arizona got back. He’s a unique player because his value is tied so heavily into his outfield defense, though he has at least 547 innings at all three positions since 2014.
The question for Inciarte will be if he can keep his hitting stats up moving away from hitter-friendly Chase Field, where his career OPS is 120 points higher (.781) than on the road (.661).
Because of the Braves’ plan for the future, Swanson and Blair are the two keys to the deal. Here is what they are bringing to Atlanta’s system.
Dansby Swanson
Swanson is the name fans will know by virtue of being the first pick in June’s draft. He was also on the national stage during the last two College World Series with Vanderbilt.
Prior to 2014, Swanson was a disappointing player for the Commodores because injuries kept him off the field. He suffered a broken bone in his left foot and suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder that limited him to 11 games in 2013.
Swanson has remained healthy the last two years, playing in 143 games, and has done nothing but hit, with 78 extra-base hits and a strong 108-84 strikeout-to-walk total against mostly SEC competition.
In his scouting profile, Andrew Simon of MLB.com graded Swanson out with four above-average-to-plus tools (hit, run, arm field) and praised his work ethic:
Most scouts believe he has the quickness and arm strength to stay at the position (shortstop) long term, even though he hadn’t played there since he was a Georgia high schooler in 2012, when the Rockies drafted him in the 38th round. Swanson is a technically sound hitter who fits at the top of his lineup with his on-base ability and speed. While he’s not a big home run threat, he can drive the ball into the gaps. His makeup is off the charts and universally praised by coaches and scouts.
Swanson is currently ranked 10th on MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects list. He doesn’t have one elite-level tool, but he is one of those players who does everything well.
Given Swanson’s strong work ethic and present speed, he’s got a chance to stay at shortstop. Eric Longenhagen of ESPN.com had no concerns about his ability to stick there while also offering a strong package of tools while acknowledging one potential flaw.
“He’s going to get on base, swipe some bags and hit for power while playing solid defense at shortstop despite an average arm,” Longenhagen wrote. “He should move quickly, though don’t be surprised if he swings and misses a bit.”
Even if there’s some minor concern about Swanson’s contact rate, the replacement value for shortstops is so low that a potentially average defender with a good eye at the plate is going to be a solid regular for a long time.
Aaron Blair
Inciarte could be joined on Atlanta’s Opening Day roster by Blair, who spent half of last year with Triple-A Reno and posted very good numbers—3.16 ERA, 67 hits allowed in 77 innings—especially considering the Pacific Coast League is a hitting paradise.
Blair, who was taken out of Marshall by the Diamondbacks 36th overall in 2013, is not an overpowering pitcher. He did have more strikeouts (171) than innings pitched (154.1) in 2014 largely because he was a polished college pitcher going against mostly younger, unpolished hitters in A-ball.
Last year, Blair finished with 120 strikeouts in 160.1 innings pitched over 26 appearances (25 starts) between Double-A and Triple-A. His best asset is being able to induce weak contact and changing speed, as evidenced by the 137 hits allowed.
MLB.com has Blair listed No. 61 on the Top 100 Prospects list based largely on the quality of his stuff:
Blair’s above-average fastball will touch at least 95 mph, sitting in the low 90s, with good running movement. He has very good feel for a mid-80s changeup and his curveball has improved and could be better than Major League average when all is said and done. Scouts like how quickly Blair works and he goes right after hitters. As effective as Blair was at missing bats in 2014, he also didn’t hurt himself with walks.
Blair doesn’t have outstanding control, though it is solid. MLB.com grades it as average (50) on the 20-80 scouting scale. He can get wild at times around the zone and hitters at the MLB level will be able to lay off close pitches or drive balls to the fence that minor leaguers can’t get to.
The ultimate ceiling for Blair is a No. 3 starter as long as he can refine his command, but in a worst-case scenario, he’s probably a No. 4 or No. 5. Given how often he’s around the strike zone, it’s not hard to see him reaching that ceiling, though there will be growing pains with the Braves when he initially gets brought up.
Final Thoughts
Considering Miller’s advanced numbers on FanGraphs (3.45 FIP, 4.07 xFIP) are substantially higher than his 2015 ERA, he’s had problems finding the strike zone at times with 73 walks in each of the last two seasons and he’s moving to a hitter-friendly park in Arizona, the Braves did very well in this deal.
Swanson and Blair ranked No. 1 and 3 on MLB.com’s Top 30 Prospects list for the Diamondbacks, and at worst Inciarte is an elite defensive outfielder who will hit enough to be worth one or two wins per season.
There are flaws with all of the players Atlanta got back in the deal, but the total package is very good considering Blair is nearly MLB ready, and Swanson can be a starting shortstop at the highest level before the 2017 All-Star break who is under team control for six full seasons after that.
Stats per Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted
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