It can be dangerous to buy into the hype whenever a top baseball prospect begins his major league journey. There’s a long list of examples to vouch for how potential doesn’t always pan out.
And then there are guys like Corey Seager.
The hype surrounding Seager coming into the year seemed almost impossible to live up to. The young Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop had grabbed everyone’s attention with an enticing breakthrough in 2015, hitting .337 in the season’s final month. That attention was solidified when all the big publications rated him as the No. 1 prospect for the 2016 season.
Last month, Seager was an easy choice for the National League All-Star team. And now it says a lot that we’re not even talking about the 22-year-old as the front-runner for National League Rookie of the Year. Barring injury, that award is his for the taking.
Rather, the conversation has shifted to Seager’s place in the NL MVP race. Mike Petriello of MLB.com put Seager’s candidacy on the table last week, and his case is legit. The wins above replacement leaderboards at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs don’t dispute the notion Seager is one of the NL’s very best players.
This is happening largely because of Seager’s bat. He’s hitting .302 with a .357 OBP and an .889 OPS. Fellow rookie shortstop Aledmys Diaz has a higher OPS, but the cavernous dimensions of Dodger Stadium allow Seager to lead all shortstops, rookie or otherwise, in adjusted offense.
Of course, Seager being a .300 hitter is a case of his living up to expectations rather than a case of exceeding them. His .337 average in the majors last year was preceded by a .307 average in the minors, and all the gurus had nothing but praise for the skills that made these numbers possible.
For example, Keith Law of ESPN.com touted Seager’s approach as the reason why he was baseball’s top prospect. Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus preferred to drool over Seager’s swing, which he saw as one “that you can watch over and over again without ever getting tired of the repetition.”
The surprising part of Seager’s superstar emergence is his power. He came into the year having never hit more than 20 home runs in any professional season. In Monday’s 9-4 win over the Philadelphia Phillies, he clubbed his 20th and 21st dingers of 2016.
Seager likely doesn’t have enough power to surpass Mike Piazza’s Dodgers rookie record of 35 home runs. But with a little under two months to go, he could definitely get to 30. Pretty good for a guy Baseball America claimed would hit around 25 home runs once he reached his prime.
Where’s the extra power coming from?
“I never really hit this many,” Seager told Doug Padilla of ESPN.com. “It’s probably one of those things that who knows what this is. It’s happening.”
What’s clear, though, is that Seager isn’t selling out for power. He entered Monday with a 1.5 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio. Most true power hitters keep their marks under 1.0.
Seager is letting his power come more naturally. He may not put the ball in the air often, but he doesn’t hit cans of corn when he does. Even before he mashed his latest dingers, he was averaging 95.2 miles per hour on his fly balls and line drives, according to Baseball Savant. That was ahead of fellow rookie slugger Trevor Story and just a few ticks shy of guys like Chris Davis and Kris Bryant.
This is not the only area where Seager has been a pleasant surprise. As much as everyone was praising his bat coming into the year, “meh” was the general opinion on his defense.
“Seager has the hands for short but not the speed or agility, while his arm would play anywhere on the diamond,” wrote Law, “making a move to third base…[is] the most probable long-term outcome.”
This could still be true, but the defensive metrics say there’s no hurry. Defensive runs saved claims Seager’s defense at shortstop has saved four runs. According to ultimate zone rating, it’s more like 7.7. If it’s the latter that has the right idea, Seager is safe among the league’s top 10 defensive shortstops.
This makes him come off like a guy who carries a chip on his shoulder. That may be because he does.
“Since the day I signed I was told I would [have to] move to third base,” Seager told Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports over the All-Star break. “… Nobody had seen you play, and you’re already getting written off.”
What’s more, Seager has been at his best at a time when the Dodgers have needed it most.
A back injury has rendered staff ace Clayton Kershaw, he of the three Cy Youngs and one MVP, unable to pitch since June 26. It was easy to predict the Dodgers’ demise at the time, but Seager is one of the forces staving it off. All he’s done since Kershaw’s injury is hit .311 with a .900 OPS, helping to lead the Dodgers to a 22-13 record. Their deficit in the NL West is just one game.
For now, Seager isn’t the no-brainer in the NL MVP race he is in the NL Rookie of the Year race. It’s a crowded field, and he faces stiff competition from guys like Bryant and Daniel Murphy. If the Colorado Rockies get hot again, National League home run and RBI leader Nolan Arenado could crash the party.
The fact Seager is even a part of this discussion, however, is as fitting as any statement one could make about his rookie season. In the face of overwhelming expectations, he’s managed to overwhelm expectations.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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