Game 4 of the National League Division Series will be the moment of truth for the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.
In a dramatic Game 3 of the NLDS that saw saw 20 runs scored and 26 hits, the Mets reclaimed their playoff lead with a new record of 2-1. In a series of five playoff games, the Mets need only win Tuesday night at their home of Citi Field—in front of thousands of diehard, vocal fans—in order to move on to the NLCS.
Clayton Kershaw returns to the mound since his resting period post-Game 1 of the playoffs, and while his season boasts a tremendous record, his history in the postseason has critics and fans biting their fingernails. Meanwhile, the Mets are bringing their prodigy pitcher Steven Matz into the spotlight to spice up game play and hold off the Dodgers for as many innings as possible.
There’s no doubt that Game 4 will be an exhilarating showdown of talented pitchers and batters unsure of what to anticipate when they step up to the plate.
The following keys are crucial for L.A.’s chances of avoiding elimination after Tuesday night’s action, beginning at 8:07 ET.
Neutralize the Crowd—Early
Even the most skilled athletes know that on-field talent means nothing without fan support to fuel their game. And when you’re on the opposite end of that support, you know how important it is to silence the critics and prove your potential.
New York needed to step up its batting game against L.A. if it hoped to win another home game. Leading up to Game 3 of the National League Division Series, the Mets were sorely lacking in production—surprising when considering “since the All-Star break the Mets lead the NL in home runs (102), runs scored (373) and OPS (.770),” according to MassLive.com’s Ben Shapiro—and the fans were not pleased.
Yet the Mets were in luck. The fearsome foursome of Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud, Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy turned up last night in Game 3 and collectively carried the Mets to their 13-7 victory and 2-1 advantage in the best-of-five NL playoffs.
Their joint Game 3 stats are extremely impressive and exactly what the fans at Citi Field needed to see. As Bleacher Report’s Rick Weiner noted, with their stats combined, they went 9-for-20 for a .450 average, out of which came four extra-base hits (two of them home runs) and 12 RBI. Seven of the players’ hits even resulted in scores.
And the crowd went absolutely wild.
If the foursome maintains these clutch shots, the Mets are going to destroy anything Kershaw throws at them. L.A. needs to take advantage of first-inning adrenaline if it hopes to avoid elimination tonight. If it manages to hold off the Mets early on, it’ll gain back control of opposing fans by silencing their boisterous support. Without that distraction, the Dodgers can focus on what matters: their game play.
Get Matz’s Pitch Count Up
The Mets’ starting pitchers certainly flaunt impressive resumes.
The 2014 NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom hit the mound in Game 1 with a 14-8 record and an ERA of 2.54 this past season. There wasn’t much pressure on deGrom—he’d never before made a postseason start.
DeGrom probably defied expectations—he recorded 13 strikeouts while preventing the Dodgers from scoring in seven innings of work. He topped the performance off by putting away the last 11 batters he faced. According to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com), “deGrom became the first Mets pitcher with 10 or more strikeouts in the playoffs since Dwight Gooden in Game 1 of the 1988 NLCS at Dodger Stadium.”
Zack Greinke and Brett Anderson then took over for Games 2 and 3, respectively.
Game 4, however, will feature 24-year-old rookie Steven Matz as starting pitcher. Though he made just six starts in the regular season, the left-handed phenom already has a glowing record of 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.234 WHIP. What’s more: Matz has yet to allow more than three runs in a start.
Already, L.A. should be careful of Matz: Not only has he integrated the Warthen slider into his pitching repertoire, but his pitch is devastating for left-handed batters.
That’s six Dodgers. However, only three are likely to start, so the Dodgers are not without hope.
L.A. will need to be strategic with its batting performance. As Timothy Downs of Rant Sports noted, it’ll need to wear Matz down with endless pitches rather than trying to knock all his pitches out of the park. Downs cited a lack of both “durability and endurance” as major weaknesses for the young Mets star, so the Dodgers need only manipulate their at-bats to outplay him.
Work the count. Opt for walks over solo hits. Simply tire Matz out.
Create a New Reputation for Postseason Kershaw
Dodgers fans are all asking the same question: Where’s the real Kid K?
As Weiner noted, with four career starts that total 26.2 innings pitched at Citi Field, Kershaw brings a quality set of skills to the field. He has given up only three runs and 15 hits, walked nine batters and logged 31 strikeouts. The pitcher has had more starts of seven-plus innings than anyone else in the major leagues over the last five years.
He’s a three-time NL Cy Young Award winner—of course we expect the best from him.
Yet Kershaw’s postseason stats of 1-6 and a 4.99 ERA are staggering, and that’s definitely not a compliment. While he pitched fine in Game 1 of the playoffs, he was unable to stand up against deGrom at Dodger Stadium. In his nine postseason starts, he has only lasted through the seventh inning in one of them.
Coming off a three-day rest, Kershaw’s record is much more grave. Bill Plaschke commented in the Los Angeles Times, “In each of the last two seasons, Kershaw has pitched the Dodgers’ final elimination game of the season, and both times his rescue attempt has failed.”
So why take yet another risk with Kershaw in Game 4? Well, they have no other options.
There is some hope for Kershaw against the Mets’ batters. Of the foursome, only Granderson and Murphy have had hits in their career at-bats against Kershaw, and their success has only been three and four respective hits out of 13 in total.
If the Dodgers want to avoid elimination, they need to transform Kershaw’s postseason reputation. To save the Dodgers and prevent a sad case of deja vu, the pitcher had best ignore the critics and the jinx of his past postseason failures. In a game as monumental as this, he needs to be in the moment rather than thinking about past errors or even about the next inning.
The New York Mets are just one game from advancing to the National League Championship Series, and the fate of the Dodgers comes down to Kershaw. This is Kershaw’s chance to redeem himself as a postseason pitcher: If he can rise above those sorry expectations of failure, he’ll no doubt shock the Mets with throws that’ll deflate their post-Game 3 egos.
Whichever pitcher—Kershaw or Matz—can stun and hold the opponent early on will ultimately come out the most successful and give his team the much-needed win. All eyes need be on the mound tonight.
Unless otherwise cited, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Kaitlin McCabe is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report’s Advanced Program in Sports Media. Follow her Twitter @kam3194.
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