There is a huge difference between popularity and production.
Big names only count for high jersey sales. That is especially the case in fantasy sports. In this instance, if the guy isn’t hitting, then he isn’t worth having on your team.
I don’t care if his name is…
Derek Jeter
This Yankees’ legend is long in the tooth for sure, but that isn’t reason enough to throw up the caution sign on the future Hall of Famer.
Consider this: Jeter’s HR and SB numbers have dipped three years in a row, and he’ll be 38 this season. It’s true, he missed 31 games in 2011, but the older he gets, the better the chances are that he’ll miss more games.
He did hit .297 in 2011, but he’s a risky proposition, especially if he’s your No. 1 SS.
Jeter isn’t the only famous Yankee with a huge caution sign next to their name on your fantasy draft board.
A-Rod has been hampered by injures for the past four years. His HR numbers have dipped every year since his MVP season in 2007, as has his SB numbers.
Last season was especially troubling for A-Rod as he put up his lowest totals in HR, RBI and OPS in 14 seasons. Of course the injuries played a major part, and fantasy owners have to be worried that A-Rod is trending downward fast.
I have predicted that A-Rod will have a resurgent year, but you can’t ignore the potential to flop as well.
Albert Pujols
Pujols is the greatest right-handed hitter I’ve ever seen, but if you consider the following factors, it’s easy to see how a flop could be in store for the Machine.
Albert is 31 and he missed 15 games last season with an arm injury. Potential fantasy owners would have to hope this doesn’t become a reoccurring issue moving forward.
Also, amidst his greatness, one might have missed that his HR, RBI and batting average numbers have decreased for three consecutive years.
Sure, the .297, 37 HR and 99 RBI from 2011 is stellar, but what are you expecting from him in 2012?
Would you take him in your first three picks?
Most would, but if the injury bug bites, it’ll be a painfully wasted pick.
Last but not least, this is his first season away from St. Louis, and the first season of a huge 10-year contract with the Angels. Is it possible there could be some pressure?
Therein lies the risk and flop potential.
CJ Wilson
Wilson got paid like an ace, but is he really?
He is 31-15 with an ERA just over 3.00 over the past two years, but how will he perform after signing a big contract with the Angels?
As solid as the Angels’ lineup could be, it won’t compare to the offensive juggernaut that the Rangers field.
That factor alone could shave a couple wins off Wilson’s season total, not to mention what the pressure of a big contract can do.
This is just something to consider if you find yourself in a position of choice, and weighing Wilson against a pitcher with less flop potential.
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