The day will come when 19-year-old Bryce Harper, perhaps the most hyped hitting prospect of the last 30 years, lives up to his vast potential in the majors.
The day will come when Harper is one of the National League’s best hitters and one of baseball’s biggest personalities.
The day will come when Harper is a four-category force (if not five) and an easy pick for Round 1 or 2 in fantasy drafts.
But on the morning of the teen sensation’s initial call-up to the big leagues—replacing All-Star third baseman Ryan Zimmerman (15-day DL)—it’s important to remember these nine words about Harper’s immediate potential in the bigs:
From a fantasy perspective, don’t go overboard on expectations.
1. Baseball history isn’t on Harper’s side.
Since 1900, the list of major league hitters enjoying amazing “fantasy” numbers in their age-19 seasons is noticeably short. In fact, here’s a look at some of history’s most prominent batters, upon breaking into the majors before their 20th birthday:
1906—Ty Cobb, Tigers (one HR, 34 RBI, 45 runs, 23 steals, .316 batting)
1914—Babe Ruth, Red Sox (zero HRs, two RBI, one run, .200 batting)
1915—Rogers Hornsby, Cardinals (zero HRs, four RBI, five runs, .246 batting)
1991—Joe Cronin, Pirates (zero HRs, 11 RBI, nine runs, .265 batting)
1927—Jimmie Foxx, A’s (three HRs, 23 RBI, 20 runs, two steals, .323 batting)
1928—Mel Ott, Giants (18 HRs, 77 RBI, 65 runs, three steals, .322 batting)
1951—Mickey Mantle, Yankees (13 HRs, 65 RBI, 61 runs, eight steals, .267 batting)
1954—Al Kaline, Tigers (four HRs, 43 RBI, 42 runs, nine steals, .276 batting)
1964—Tony Conigliaro, Red Sox (24 HRs, 52 RBI, 69 runs, two steals, .290 batting)
1975—Robin Yount, Brewers (eight HRs, 52 RBI, 67 runs, 12 steals, .267 batting)
1988—Gary Sheffield, Brewers (four HRs, 12 RBI, 12 runs, three steals, .238 batting)
1989—Ken Griffey, Jr., Mariners (16 HRs, 61 RBI, 61 runs, 16 steals, .264 batting)
1991—Ivan Rodriguez, Rangers (three HRs, 27 RBI, 24 runs, .264 batting)
1995—Alex Rodriguez, Mariners (five HRs, 19 RBI, 15 runs, four steals, .232 batting)
1996—Andruw Jones, Braves (five HRs, 13 RBI, 11 runs, three steals, .217 batting)
1991—Edgar Renteria, Marlins (five HRs, 31 RBI, 68 runs, 16 steals, .309 batting)
2011—Mike Trout, Angels (five HRs, 16 RBI, 24 runs, four steals .220 batting)
2. Harper’s audition with the Nationals might be brief—very brief.
On Friday, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo hinted Harper’s promotion would be a short-term move. He then said the club has no plans to deviate from its preseason goal of Harper (one HR, three RBI, eight runs, one steal, .250 batting) logging 300 to 350 minor league at-bats. Of course, that concept came before injuries to Zimmerman and 1B/OF Michael Morse.
Translation: The kid’s taste of the big leagues may simply be a motivational ploy or timely reward to keep Harper focused on what lies ahead.
Breakdown
Harper likely has owners for 99.99 percent of long-term keeper leagues, but if you should accidentally find him on waivers, by all means grab and stash him for 2013 and beyond.
For roto owners only concerned with this season, unless there’s a specific slot for “minors” talent, I wouldn’t recommend upending your roster for a few weeks of hot-and-cold Harpermania. He may be the greatest young hitter since Tony Gwynn…but he’s still just a teenager.
And great fantasy success, historically speaking, is usually reserved for the 20-something crowd.
Harper seasonal targets: Six homers, 24 RBI, 27 runs, seven steals, .258 batting.
Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.
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