I do realize it is still January and this report is based on very early mock drafts that are currently taking place on Mock Draft Central. Doing mock drafts, even now, is something I recommend, as it will give you a good idea of where players are going in order to prepare you for where to take the guys you want in your real draft.
Back to the point, even though these average draft positions are early results, it’s still important to monitor, and even early reports can be useful to get a feel for how a majority of people are valuing a guy.
It’s one thing to read about where I would rank a certain guy, or where the esteemed Rotoprofessor would rank a guy, but you have to keep tabs on where everyone else ranks them and learn where the steals are going to be at and where to avoid overpaying.
So here is a look at who is being overvalued and who is being undervalued according to early ADP.
Overvalued
Alfonso Soriano (ADP: 99 OVR, 25 OF): Chalk this one up to name value. No matter how you slice it Alfonso Soriano just isn’t one of the top 100 fantasy baseball players anymore. His batting average the last two years is a combined .247, he is no longer even a double digit steals threat and his power is on the decline. You never want to overvalue a guy based on what he used to be; you don’t get any points for having formerly great players on your team.
Rickie Weeks (ADP: 40 OVR, 5 2B): I’m not going to take anything away from what Rickie Weeks did last year. He was finally able to stay healthy for a full season and he was awfully impressive in what he did. And I also recognize that second base is a weak position.
But Rickie Weeks is not a top 40 player. There is a gap of over 13 picks between Weeks and Ian Kinsler, and I don’t think Weeks should be taken over Kinsler or Dan Uggla, who have proven more than once what they’re capable of. It’s not that I don’t like Weeks. I wouldn’t mind owning him, but I won’t cause I won’t be willing to take him where a lot of other people are.
Carlos Marmol (ADP: 70 OVR, 2 RP): It might look like I am hating on the Cubs, but I’m really not. Marmol has the potential to dominate unlike any other pitcher in baseball. Last year he struck batters out at a clip of 16 per nine innings. But he also walked six batters per nine innings and it’s going to be tough to maintain a 2.45 ERA if he keeps that up. Marmol is certainly worth the risk of owning him, I just wouldn’t make him the No. 2 closer off the board like many others apparently are doing.
Chad Billingsley (ADP: 84.3 OVR, 20 SP): After some struggles in 2009, Billingsley bounced back very nicely in 2010 and put up a solid stat line. However, I think what we got from Billingsley is what we’re going to continue to get from him. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it falls short of the ace stuff so many people projected from him early on, and I think a lot of people are still valuing him based on those early projections.
I have a ton of room on my team for a guy with a 3.50 ERA and 170-plus strikeouts. I’m just not sold on taking him over guys like Jered Weaver, Matt Cain and Roy Oswalt, who are all going after him on average.
Undervalued
Chris B. Young (ADP: 168.5 OVR, 44 OF): Mr. Young apparently doesn’t have too many believers in the near 30/30 season he put up last year. If you owned him in 2009 and got completely burned by him, you might be hesitant, and there is reason to proceed with caution. However, he looked to find his rhythm at the plate last season, and based on his potential, he should really not be passed up for guys like Ryan Ludwick and Jason Kubel.
Kurt Suzuki (ADP: 182.16, 11 C): A steady stream of injuries kept Suzuki from getting into a groove last year at the plate, and a career-low .245 BABIP contributed to his head scratching batting average of .242. Despite that, Suzuki still showed his power potential with 13 home runs and 71 RBI, and there is no doubt he is capable of 16-17 home runs and 70-80 RBI. He’ll also bring that batting average back up closer to .270.
Those numbers might not be too catchy at most positions, but for a catcher, it’s certainly worth more than No. 11 off the board.
Jhonny Peralta (ADP: 230.8 OVR, 24 SS): When you get to this point in the draft, you have to start looking for guys with upside. While Peralta has regressed since his 2008 campaign, he still has some upside, especially stacked up next to the likes of Miguel Tejada, who is going an average of three rounds higher. Peralta could be the guy in Detroit hitting sixth behind Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, and that’s a pretty favorable spot to be in for RBI opportunities.
Shortstop is one of the weaker positions out there, and certainly what Peralta brings to the table is better than 24th among shortstops. I have Peralta as a top 15 shortstop, so at this point he is a great value.
Ricky Nolasco (ADP: 214.2 OVR, 66 SP): The last two seasons have been rough for Nolasco, with 5.06 and 4.51 ERA’s, respectively. But what he is capable of doing should have him higher on the ADP chart that he is right now. This could be a cause of small sample size on the list, or people just being gun shy considering the last couple of seasons. My guess is that it is a little bit of both.
Part of the problem recently has been bad luck, with a BABIP against hovering the .330 mark the last two seasons. If even just that changes, coupled with Nolasco’s control, he should be able to get the ERA under four. Drafting him at this kind of spot would be one of the steals of the draft.
What are your thoughts on these guys? Do you think they’re being taken where they should or are they off? If so where would you take some of them? Give us your feedback and any questions or comments you have.
For more fantasy analysis and a chance to purchase the Rotoprofessor draft guide for just $5 check out The Rotoprofessor.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com