Justin Upton is one of the brightest young stars in baseball—at least, that’s what we are supposed to believe. 

We all know he has the talent, as we’ve seen it at times, but given what he’s shown recently, should we be rolling the dice on him in the late third or early fourth round of fantasy drafts (since his current ADP, according to Mock Draft Central. is 40.27)?

Obviously, if you are in a keeper league, this discussion is completely void. In a league where you are looking not just at 2011, but beyond, there are few players that you would probably rather have than Upton. 

Keep that in mind as you read on.

First, let’s take a look at Upton’s 2010 production:

495 At Bats
.273 Batting Average (135 Hits)
17 Home Runs
69 RBI
73 Runs
18 Stolen Bases
.356 On Base Percentage
.442 Slugging Percentage
.354 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Those numbers paled in comparison to his 2009 campaign when he hit .300 with 26 HR and 20 SB. He was supposed to turn the corner in 2010 and take the next step in his development; instead, he regressed significantly.

Yet, owners are still valuing him like he lived up to expectations.

One of the major concerns is his strikeout rate, which took a significant step backwards:

  • 2008 – 34.0% (356 AB)
  • 2009 – 26.0% (526 AB)
  • 2010 – 30.7% (495 AB)

Yes, you could argue that he turned the corner in that regard as the season progressed (25.8% in July, 24.8% in August) but the threat is still there. The idea that he could post such a high strikeout rate makes it hard to expect him to hit .300. Obviously, if he could maintain his mid-season success (as he did in 2009), it is possible. 

The upside is there, but is it something that is a guarantee?

He has power potential, but what exactly has he shown to make us think that he’s going to suddenly become a 30+ HR threat in 2011? His HR/FB fell significantly in ’10, going from 18.8% to 12.4%. 

So, which is it? It’s likely that he is somewhere in the middle, but at this point does anyone really know for sure?

Who is to say that he is more likely to return to his ’09 power as opposed to repeat his ’10 struggles? Yes, we all know the potential, but he is still just 23 years old. There just is not guarantee.

The speed is solid, but he’s not a 30 SB threat. That is something that he has proven, with 38 total stolen bases over the past two years. Yes, it is a solid number, but how much better is it than other options?

Just look at Hunter Pence’s 2010 numbers, who has a current ADP of 84.53:

.282, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 93 R, 18 SB

He outperformed Upton basically across the board, yet Upton’s hype and potential cause him to be drafted nearly 50 spots higher? 

Honestly, it doesn’t make any sense.

Pence has proven to be a consistent performer year in and year out. He is going to be a 25 HR hitter.  He is going to hit around .280. He is going to steal between 15 and 20 bases. Plus, now that he is likely the full-time No. 3 hitter for the Astros, there is a good chance that he goes 90/90 once again.

Could Upton outperform those numbers? Absolutely. He has that “potential.” However, he showed in 2010 that he also still has a long way to go and has not yet fully realized what he can and cannot achieve on the diamond.

Of course, you also have the concerns regarding his shoulder injury that plagued him in 2010. It cost him time in September and maybe did contribute to his overall struggles. 

Are you willing to bet on it, though?

Potential is tremendous, but when you are drafting for one season is it really something you want to gamble on that early? It certainly isn’t for me, especially when I can get similar, if not better, production four rounds later.

What about you? Is Upton someone you would in the fourth round of yearly leagues?  Why or why not?

 

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