Fantasy baseball—quite possibly the most complex and exhausting fantasy sport there is.
Fantasy baseball managers are often burying their heads in rankings, projections and even articles such as this one. But why? Fantasy baseball isn’t much more than a game of statistics and a player’s history. It doesn’t take an “expert” to tell you that Albert Pujols is consistent or that Buster Posey has upside: The numbers say it all.
Some may be overwhelmed by the vast amounts of statistical categories involved in fantasy baseball— from ERA (Earned-Run Average) to the more obscure BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play).
Rankings are based off of somewhat complex calculations, and often vary greatly depending on the source. You may see Jacoby Ellsbury as high as 10, and as low as 25—not much of a help when you’re deciding whether or not to draft him. Situations like that lead me to my main point: Research the players.
When researching players, you not only find the projections and rankings along the way but you have a better understanding as to the type of player you are drafting.
Rankings and projections poorly take into account injuries, current news and player types. I will use Jacoby Ellsbury as an example once again, as he just happens to be my pick for AL East bust of the year. In 2011, Ellsbury posted a ridiculous stat line for a lead off hitter—.321 avg/32 HR/105 R/119 RBI/39 SB.
That’s an impressive season, and I can see why Ellsbury is seen as a top option in the outfield—until you look at all of the numbers.
In 2010, Ellsbury only played in 18 games, his season being marred by an injury. In two full season from 2008-2009 Jacoby never had more than 9 homers and 60 runs batted in, yet he is projected to hit at least 20 homers and 75 runs batted in. Something doesn’t seem right here, and drafting him based of of these projected numbers may very well leave you very unsatisfied.
During 2011, pitcher Tim Stauffer posted a modest 3.73 ERA. What is misleading about this rather unproven pitcher is his numbers within the splits. At home, in San Diego, Stauffer was very effective with a 2.57 ERA. The problem is, San Diego is a very pitcher friendly park. On the road, his ERA was 4.97. The road ERA is more of a testament to Stauffer’s talent and more accurately shows what you should expect of him on a regular basis. To add to my point, Stauffer had an ERA of 2.97 through the first half of the season. After the break, he managed just a 5.05 ERA. Ending a season in such a horrible fashion as an unproven pitcher should strike fear into anyone drafting him—even though his 2011 ERA of 3.73 doesn’t suggest that.
As a fantasy baseball manager, you should expect to win only if you research deeper into statistics and historical values; they’ll prove much more telling than ranking, ADP and projections.
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