Over the past two years, Brandon Webb has thrown a grand total of four innings in the major leagues.  However, in 2011 he will attempt to fill the void in the Texas Rangers’ rotation created by Cliff Lee packing his bags and heading to Philadelphia.

Prior to his injury problems, Webb was one of the elite players in the game. 

He was the elite groundball pitcher, with a career groundball rate of 64.2 percent.  Yes, the Ballpark in Arlington is known as a hitter’s park, but if Webb is able to regain this type of form, it is not going to matter.  Generating groundball after groundball with a good defensive team behind him (especially with the likely addition of Adrian Beltre), success will be there.

Prior to the injury, Webb was also a solid strikeout pitcher. 

He was far from elite, but he was always in the 6.76 to 7.39 range.  With a fastball averaging around 88 miles per hour, you can’t expect anything more than it. 

In fact, you may see a slight regression.  Assuming he can re-create the groundball rate, the falloff shouldn’t matter much.

The real issue is his control. 

From 2005-2008 his walks per nine innings ranged from 1.91 to 2.74.  Having pitched sparingly over the past two seasons, this is one thing that you have to be concerned about not coming back all the way.

If his control comes back fully, he should be the same pitcher that he has always been, regardless of the ballpark or the league he plays in.  We’ll take a much more in-depth look at Webb in the coming weeks, but there really is no way to draw any definite conclusions given his lengthy absence.  It is just impossible to answer the two main questions without seeing him on a mound:

  1. Will his groundball rate remain elite
  2. Will he be able to consistently throw strikes

Just like for the Rangers, Webb will be a high-risk, high-reward option for fantasy owners. 

While he’s not going to be worth a high-round selection, in the mid-to-late rounds there is no reason not to roll the dice on him.  While he may not pan out, you also may be getting a SP1 in the process.

What are your thoughts of Webb?  Is he worth the gamble?  Why or why not?

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