Spring Training is right around the corner and that means that your fantasy baseball draft can’t be too far away either.
The New York Mets are not seen as legitimate contenders in the National League, but that doesn’t mean that its players won’t be able to help you dominate your opposition this season.
Let’s take a look at which Mets batters could play a role in 2011.
David Wright
Whether you’re playing in a mixed league or an NL-only league, Wright will likely be a first-round pick. He’ll probably go toward the end of the first round in a 12-team league, but Mock Draft Central is reporting that he’s gone anywhere from fifth to 16th in the past week.
Either way, there’s only a small window to pick him up. If you have any of the first four picks in the draft, you probably won’t get Wright. He’s not worth picking ahead of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera or Troy Tulowitzki. If you’re in a mixed league then Evan Longoria should be your priority at third base.
By the time your second pick comes around, Wright will be off the board.
If you are picking in or around the No. 7 spot, Wright will be an interesting proposition. The next viable options at the hot corner are A-Rod or Ryan Zimmerman.
All three players are key men on their respective teams, and all three are likely to get anything from 500 at-bats upwards. Wright has the least power of the three, and even though he’s a lock for 20 homers, what he gives up in power he makes up for in speed. A .290 average, 100 RBIs, 20 steals and 85 runs is a pretty good prediction for Wright.
If you want to tick a lot of boxes in one go, Wright is worth the investment. If you miss out on him, don’t worry. There are several other options available, it just may mean you have to hunt for more speed later on.
Jose Reyes
Reyes presents both opportunities and threats on draft day. He’s a long way behind Tulowitzki and Ramirez, but well ahead of the rest of the shortstop field with the exception of Jimmy Rollins.
I’ve seen Reyes slip to the end of the third round in Yahoo! drafts this week, in which case he represents quite a steal, but the fact is that he’s more likely to go in the early to mid stages of the second.
The question you need to ask yourself is whether he is worth the risk? If you have tempered expectations for Reyes, then 30-plus steals and double-digit homers and triples isn’t too much of a reach. If you think he’s going to stay healthy the whole year, you can add 20 to 30 percent to these numbers, but that is a massive risk.
As most experienced fantasy players will know, risk is the one thing that you want to avoid in the first few rounds.
If you grabbed a speedy outfielder like Carl Crawford, Ichiro or Jacoby Ellsbury in the first round you can probably pass on Reyes because you will already be ahead of the field in terms of speed. If not, only consider Reyes if you’re sure of the health of his wheels or if he drops too far.
Jason Bay
After Wright and Reyes, no Mets player is likely to be leaving the draft board for at least the next eight or nine rounds. According to early mock draft reports, Bay will be the first New York outfielder to get snatched up, despite a below-par 2010 that caused a lot of fans to question his value to the club.
Early indications show that Bay will go around No. 140 in the draft, around the 12th round in a 12-team league.
By this point of the draft, average draft position (ADP) isn’t as important as the group that a player is being selected. With that in mind, there’s very little difference in taking someone ranked 132 as opposed to someone 142.
Bay may slip in your draft on account of his performance last year and the ridiculous dimensions of the Citi Field outfield. Should that happen, Bay will be the 35th to 40th outfielder taken overall, meaning he will most likely be a third outfielder on your team.
The three-time All-Star hit just six homers and plated 47 runs in 95 games last year, so what can you expect from him in 2011?
I’ve seen projections as good as 23 home runs and 92 RBIs and I’ve seen them as low as 17 and 66. Both scenarios assume he’s going to be fully fit, and right now there’s no reason to suspect that is untrue.
Either way, Bay won’t hit for a great average (maybe something around the .260-.265 mark) and he won’t be swiping too many more bases than last year.
You’ll have a pretty strong feel for your starting lineup at this stage of the draft, and that should dictate whether you take a gamble on Bay.
If you need speed and can afford to take a hit in the BA department, maybe Drew Stubbs is a better bet. If you want more of a sure thing in the power sweepstakes, Vernon Wells could still be available. If it is batting average you desperately need, maybe Nick Markakis could fill the void.
Bay isn’t a bad choice in this spot, and it’s fair to say he stacks up pretty well with other outfielders being taken in the 12th round.
Ryan Ludwick will put up similar production numbers without the speed and Jason Kubel may be lucky to see 100 games. If you don’t expect 2009 numbers from Bay, you might be pleasantly surprised.
Ike Davis
Despite a great rookie year in NY, Davis is still going undrafted in one in every eight fantasy leagues.
Davis is seen as a 20th-round pick at the minute, between the likes of James Loney and Gabby Sanchez. To be honest, any one of the three would be virtually interchangeable in your team, especially considering you’re only going to be starting him once or twice a week.
Almost half the teams will have their starting second baseman by the end of the second round. Davis is only going to have real value if someone chooses him to be their starter. That will mean that half the teams will also have to have drafted a backup first baseman by the time you grab your first. That’s unlikely.
He will be an adequate backup, but his true value will only be realized if your first choice goes down injured. If you’re looking for a utility bat, Adam Lind serves the role much better.
Carlos Beltran
I won’t be taking a gamble on Beltran, but there’s a good chance that someone will. He’s being drafted in 84 percent of 12-team mixed leagues and some owners out there will take a flier on him and stash him on the bench in case he turns a corner.
If he stays healthy, he’ll be in the everyday lineup and if New York do manage to score runs this year, he’ll have a prime spot in the lineup to do some damage. His knee is an obvious risk and playing time has to be taken into account, but he could be worth a pick in deeper leagues.
You could do a lot worse than 16 homers and 75 RBIs from your 22nd-rounder. If he goes down hurt or downright stinks it up, he’s an easy guy to cut because there is so much depth at the position.
Angel Pagan
Pagan earned his starting job for 2011 and he won the support and respect of a lot of fans for his on-field growth last season. Still, a team-oriented player does not always make a great fantasy acquisition, and unfortunately for Mets fans, that is where Pagan fits in.
There’s no reason to believe he will improve on his 2010 numbers, and if that’s the case you’re buying into a little-pop contact hitter with above-average wheels.
Pagan is going undrafted in 20 percent of leagues this week. In the ones where he is being drafted, he’s going around the 24th round. His .295 average and seven or eight homers just doesn’t get it done for me, especially when we’ve already seen the limit of his upside.
I’d much rather go with Raul Ibanez, take the 15-point batting average hit and run off with 20 or more homers and 90 RBIs.
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