When you mention the name Ian Kinsler, there are a few thoughts that likely instantly come to mind:

  1. Extremely disappointing 2010
  2. Injury prone
  3. 20/20 upside

We all know he is likely going to miss at least a little bit of time at some point in 2011.  He has never played more than 144 games in a season (2009) and played in just 103 last season.  When you draft him, you do so expecting to have to utilize a replacement option.

The real question, however, is if he can rebound from ’10 and reach that potential upside, just like he did in ’09.  Before we can answer that, let’s look at how bad he was last year: 391 AB, .286 BA (112 Hits), 9 HR, 45 RBI, 73 R, 15 SB, .382 OBP, .412 SLG, .313 BABIP.

Outside of his OBP, which was actually significantly better than his ’09 mark (.327), and his average (.253), the numbers were extremely disappointing.  You can blame it on injuries all you want, but even when he was on the field the production just wasn’t there.

The improvement in average and OBP are extremely explainable and we’ll get to that in a moment.

You notice that I said 20/20 potential in the intro, despite the fact that he actually went 30/30 in ’09 (31 HR, 31 SB).  The fact of the matter is that there is little chance that he replicates the power number, specifically.  Just look at his fly ball percentage for the past five years:

  • 2006 – 44.2 percent
  • 2007 – 45.7 percent
  • 2008 – 43.3 percent
  • 2009 – 54.0 percent
  • 2010 – 41.6 percent

Which of these numbers doesn’t belong?  That fly ball rate not only helps to explain the fall in power, but also the improvement in the average department.  Fly balls don’t lend themselves to good luck, meaning a low BABIP is expected.  Look no further than his .241 mark in ’09 for proof.  Getting away from being a bit homer happy helped Kinsler get back to being a good option in both the average and OBP departments.

The Rangers plan on taking advantage of that improvement in 2011.  According to Jeff Wilson of the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram, “Manager Ron Washington said that he is planning to have Ian Kinsler bat leadoff in 2011 and move Michael Young to sixth in the lineup so that he can be in a spot where he will have an opportunity to drive in more runs. Elvis Andrus will bat second, Young’s former spot.”

That should give him a good chance to return to the days of scoring 95-plus runs (as he did from 2007-2009).  Yes, it will likely lead to fewer RBI opportunities, but that really shouldn’t be Kinsler’s game.  He’s not a big-time power hitter ,and hitting him lower in the order will only expose him further.

Kinsler should be a top-of-the-order option, where he can get on base, steal a few bags and score plenty of runs.  If you draft him expecting someone who is going to hit 30 HR and drive in at least 85, you are going to be sorely disappointed. 

Basically, put 2009 out of your mind, because it is not likely to be repeated.

What we should be looking for is the player he was in 2007 and 2008, meaning 20 HR, 25-plus SB and 95-plus runs.  If he can do that, what is there to complain about?

What are your thoughts on Kinsler?  What are you expecting from him in 2011? 

 

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