Carlos Marmol brings an exceptional strikeout rate to the closers role.  There is no arguing that fact, but that shouldn’t cause us to overlook the warts that do come with selecting him. 

Can he be one of the elite closers in the game in 2011?  Absolutely, but there is also the chance that he completely falls flat.  Which will it be?  Let’s start by taking a look at his 2010 performance:

2 Wins
38 Saves
77.2 Innings
2.55 ERA
1.18 WHIP
138 Strikeouts (15.99 K/9)
52 Walks (6.03 BB/9)
.293 BABIP 

The strikeouts are exceptional, but can we really expect him to be able to replicate it?  Yes, he should continue to be an elite option among relievers, but look at his K/9 the prior three years as a full-time reliever:

2007—12.46 (96 K over 69.1 innings)

2008—11.75 (114 K over 87.1 innings)

2009—11.31 (93 K over 74.0 innings)

They are all impressive numbers, but they aren’t quite the 138 strikeouts that he posted in ’10.  If he posts 20-30 fewer strikeouts, his value will take a hit. 

Among relief pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2010, there were 26 pitchers who posted a K/9 of 10.0 or better.  Included in that group were closers like John Axford, Heath Bell and Brian Wilson, among others.

If he can’t maintain the elite strikeout rate, which I would suspect that he can’t, the other numbers are going to play a significant role in how valuable he is compared to other options.

Obviously, the most glaring number is his walk rate, something that could ultimately cost him his job. 

If he strikes out fewer batters, he is likely going to allow more hits (due to there being more balls put in play).  When that happens, the sheer number of walks he posts could easily come back to haunt him.  You cannot continually walk the ballpark and just expect to strikeout the next three guys and get out of the jam.  Sooner or later it is going to bite you.

Keep in mind in 2009, with a BABIP of .252, he posted a WHIP of 1.46.  Yes, his ERA was still a usable 3.41, but that easily could go the other way.

You also have to consider his fly ball rate of 48.1 percent, which was actually the best mark of his career.  Yet, he posted a HR/FB of 1.6 percent and a HR/9 of 0.12. 

Are those numbers that we can really anticipate him repeating (I know his HR/9 in ’09 was 0.24, but he was at 1.03 in ’08)?  Sooner or later some of those fly balls are going to find their way over the fence.  If that happens, along with all the walks he allows, would it be a surprise to see him struggle?

I’m not suggesting avoiding Marmol in the least.  With his strikeout rate he is going to be a viable closer in all formats. 

However, do not let the stellar strikeout rate distract you from the risk that surrounds him.  If the walks continue he easily could struggle and ultimately find himself out of the closers role, at least for a little while.  Don’t look past Jonathan Broxton in ’10 for proof.

The walks have to be a concern, and they do help to push him down my rankings (he was tenth on my most recent rankings, which you can view by clicking here).  Proceed with caution, because there is a ton of risk.

What are your thoughts on Marmol?  How do you see him performing in 2011?  What are the chances that he loses his job at some point?

 

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