Even with Garrett Richards atop their rotation, the Los Angeles Angels were in trouble. Their lineup wasn’t deep enough, and neither was their starting rotation.
But Richards was not just any other arm. He was the Angels’ unquestionable ace, pitching to a strong 2.34 ERA with 34 strikeouts in just 34.2 innings.
He was 28-16 in the previous two seasons, too, and was considered a 2014 Cy Young candidate before a freak knee injury ended his season that August.
So what chance do the Angels have now, with the news Friday morning that Richards needs Tommy John surgery (first reported by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports)?
“Zero,” said one National League scout who has seen them.
Harsh. But are you going to argue with him?
Good teams come back from serious injuries. The St. Louis Cardinals lost ace Adam Wainwright right about this time last season and went on to win 100 games.
The Angels aren’t the Cardinals, even if both teams wear red and both have employed Albert Pujols. The Cardinals have been finding ways to win for years. The Angels have been making the least of having maybe the best player in baseball in their lineup.
As my Bleacher Report colleague Scott Miller asked in a column last month: “Are the consistently underachieving Angels blowing it by failing to take advantage of the prime of [Mike] Trout?”
Trout has finished first or second in American League Most Valuable Player voting in each of his first four full seasons, an incredible start to a career. The Angels haven’t won a single postseason game in that time (they were swept by the Kansas City Royals in the 2014 Division Series), which is almost as incredible.
You can understand why Joel Sherman of the New York Post would ask new Angels general manager Billy Eppler if he would consider trading Trout to rebuild and restock (as Sherman reported on Twitter on Friday morning). You can also understand why Eppler would “defiantly” say no.
Eppler told Sherman he would win with Trout, which makes perfect sense for a team with the Angels’ resources. Craig Edwards of FanGraphs estimated last month that the Angels were second to the Los Angeles Dodgers in local television revenue, at $118 million this year.
All that money, and the Angels never did get that left field bat they so badly needed over the winter. All that money, and even before the Richards injury their depth chart on MLB.com listed just four starting pitchers.
Now it’s three, led by Jered Weaver. And not the 2011-12 version of Weaver, who won 18 and 20 games and finished second and third in Cy Young balloting. This Weaver has a 5.40 ERA, a 1.624 WHIP and a fastball that averages 81.9 mph, according to FanGraphs.
The Angels are paying C.J. Wilson $20 million this season, but he’s still trying to come back from shoulder trouble and isn’t even throwing off a mound yet. They have Andrew Heaney, but Passan reported he might need Tommy John surgery too.
They had pitching prospects Chris Ellis and Sean Newcomb, who are off to good starts in the minor leagues. But they’re in the minor leagues with the Atlanta Braves, where Eppler traded them to get shortstop Andrelton Simmons.
Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reported on Twitter that the Angels will likely call up right-hander Matt Shoemaker and left-hander Nate Smith from Triple-A Salt Lake. Shoemaker won 16 games as a rookie in 2014, but he had a 9.15 ERA in five starts earlier this season.
Smith is one of the team’s top prospects, but even that’s not as good as it sounds. MLB.com says if he maximizes his ceiling, it’s probably as a fourth or fifth starter.
Meanwhile, the Angels are off to a start that should look familiar. Trout has his usual numbers (seven home runs, .996 OPS), while his team is struggling to hang on around .500 (13-15 through Thursday).
They play in an American League West that for now doesn’t include a dominant team. The Seattle Mariners, hot lately, lead the division at 17-11.
But the Angels showed little sign of being able to take advantage, even with Richards.
Without him?
After the NL scout told me they had “zero” chance now, I asked the same question to another scout who works for an American League team. What chance do the Angels have now?
“None,” he texted back.
Harsh. But hard to argue.
Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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