Major League Baseball’s offseason isn’t yet a month old, and teams have already spent upward of $400 million combined in free agency, a majority of which came from the Boston Red Sox’s same-day splurge on top position players Hanley Ramirez ($88 million for four years) and Pablo Sandoval ($95 million over five).
For context, the free-agent spending last winter, according to ESPN, checked in at a whopping total $1,861,775,000—that’s nearly two billion—an increase from the $1,335,525,000 burned the year prior.
That’s more than a $500 million jump, if you’re counting along at home with your abacus.
This is only counting dollars spent in free agency, an increasingly expensive nexus where the ever-growing demand continues to reign over the always-shrinking supply.
In part, this is the case because baseball’s finances are exploding thanks to massive national and regional television deals, thus pumping more money into the mix. At the same time, teams are locking up their own young players with long-term extensions more often, thus diluting the pool of players available in free agency every year.
That’s how someone like Russell Martin, a fine all-around player with a skill set that includes above-average defense and on-base ability on offense—but more importantly, the lone definitive starting catcher available on the open market this offseason—can score a five-year, $82 million contract despite entering his age-32 season a year removed from hitting .211.
“There aren’t as many quality, younger free agents out there,” an unnamed baseball executive said in early November, via Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. “Teams are keeping their guys, signing them to extensions. The numbers to choose from are less and less, so free agency is not always the answer.”
Broadening the scope to include extensions, it’s also how a superstar like Giancarlo Stanton, in the prime of his career at age 25, can find himself signing a record-setting, 13-year, $325 million pact with a Miami Marlins team that ranked dead last in team payroll in 2014.
Or how Kyle Seager, the very good but little-known Seattle Mariners third baseman, can put his John Hancock on an extension that will pay him $100 million over the next seven years. Ask the casual baseball fan if Seager is worth a nine-figure contract, and the answer is liable to be: “Kyle who?”
All of which should make it pretty obvious that the international free-agent market remains one of the few areas (along with the draft) where teams can find not only good values, but in many cases, actual bargains.
Take a look at these “big-money” deals (at least $30 million in total value) signed by international free agents who have made it to MLB over the past five years:
That reads like an all-star team, doesn’t it? And given the price tags attached to them, these signings look well worth it in most, if not all, cases.
No wonder clubs are willing to throw money at highly regarded foreign players before they have played even a single inning in America. In fact, these expenditures are less costly than those for actual, proven MLB free agents because these players are untested in the majors.
On Nov. 26, that final name, Yasmany Tomas, was added to the above list. The slugging Cuban outfielder agreed to a six-year, $68.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
Yes, that’s a lot of money, and it could backfire if Tomas doesn’t live up to the hype and expectations. But if he does—which is to say, if he performs like most of his recent fellow Cuban predecessors—that has the potential to be yet another steal. At least, relative to the dollars being dished out in non-international free agency.
OK, so the $155 million the New York Yankees paid to pick up Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka last January can’t exactly be called a bargain. Then again, the right-hander was available at the age of 25 and did look like one of the very best pitchers in baseball over the first half of his rookie season before an elbow injury sidelined him.
At some point—and soon—even the international market no longer will offer good values, in large part because so many of the players to come from Cuba (Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes), Japan (Tanaka, Yu Darvish) and Korea (Hyun-Jin Ryu) in recent years have had immediate impacts and significant success in the majors.
There will come a time when an MLB club will splurge on a supposed-to-be star from a foreign land who disappoints or perhaps doesn’t even reach The Show, and some teams will get wallet-shy as a result.
Maybe that could happen with Tomas. Or perhaps it will be the case for one or both of the other two possible international free agents who are generating a lot of buzz right now: 19-year-old Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada and Kenta Maeda, the 26-year-old Japanese right-hander.
But judging by the recent track record of these players, it’s more likely that this market will get pushed into a territory close to the current MLB free-agent market, where $100 million deals are commonplace and bargains are few and far between.
That wouldn’t be a bad thing for the business of baseball, because big-time players would be getting paid big-time money, no matter where they’re born or where they played professionally before coming to MLB.
But just imagine how much harder it will be for all 30 teams to shop in, let alone find, the “bargain bin” then.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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