The 2016 MLB Home Run Derby is an exciting precursor to the All-Star Game at Petco Park in San Diego, where eight contestants will battle for boasting rights as the evening’s top slugger on Monday.
MLB Communications tweeted the full bracket of competitors, which features seeds and head-to-head, single-elimination matchups:
Adhering to last year’s newly established format, players will be timed for four minutes in each round to hit as many home runs as they can, per MLB.com’s Doug Miller. A batter who hits at least two dingers of 440 feet or farther gets an extra 30 seconds added to his round. Contestants also get a 45-second timeout per round and two such breaks in the finals.
For a closer look at the field, check out the table below, which also features the participants’ home run numbers for the 2016 campaign and predictions for the Derby:
Seeds are determined purely by the amount of homers the player has, which puts Baltimore Orioles outfielder Mark Trumbo at the head of the pack.
Trumbo‘s raw numbers suggest he’ll be a big favorite. According to Miller’s report, Trumbo‘s nine blasts of 425 feet or more were tops in baseball. But right out of the gates, he’ll have a considerable challenge on his hands in Los Angeles Dodgers prodigy Corey Seager.
The 22-year-old shortstop is likely to be fresher than Trumbo, 30, which puts the Orioles star in danger of being bounced in the opening round. Seager‘s youth and the fact that the clearance over the right field line is shorter than the one in left should help his cause to pull the upset as well.
And the run of upsets will continue through the first round, with the only exception being Todd Frazier defeating Carlos Gonzalez.
Frazier thrived in last year’s changed format and rallied around the Cincinnati Reds fans who were cheering him on in his home park to win the Derby. It’d be a shock to see the Chicago White Sox veteran go down to even a venerable hitter in Gonzalez.
With the proven stamina to go the distance in 2015, Frazier will dash the dreams of San Diego fans who hope to see their All-Star representative, Wil Myers, pull through. Myers has the benefit of the Padres faithful to get him past Adam Duvall, and he is likely to continue riding the momentum into the semifinals.
The projected Myers-Frazier duel should be the most competitive second-round matchup, because Seager‘s surge to start will fizzle at the hands of Giancarlo Stanton.
Speaking of the Miami Marlins stud, check out this anecdote from ESPN Stats & Info about his raw power, which should buy him some time in light of the bonus rule:
Daren Willman of MLB.com tweeted out another list to make a case for Stanton, especially when taking into account Gonzalez plays in the altitude-aided Coors Field when he’s at home:
Stanton is strong enough to muscle line-drive shots out of the ballpark, and even when he doesn’t get all of a baseball, it still has a realistic chance to clear the fence.
Already with five homers in July ahead of Sunday’s games, Stanton is beginning to come into his own after a slow start to the year.
“On top of the fastball, that’s what I’ve been successful with,” Stanton said, per Miller. “That’s what I fell off of for a little while. When you’re on top of that, there is not much they can do.”
Many of these power hitters have that quality, but none to the degree Stanton does. His lower launch angle and pure contact set him apart from most of his peers.
Only Ken Griffey Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes have managed to pull off repeats. The format is different now, so Frazier is in uncharted territory amid his Home Run Derby defense. While he does have the goods to get to the final, Stanton is probably too much for anyone to handle.
Look for Stanton to show off his skills on the big stage and claim the trophy on Monday in an epic clash with Frazier to conclude the grand spectacle.
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