The 2014-15 MLB offseason began like any other.
Then everything changed.
The Milwaukee Brewers were able to fill their void at first base by trading Marco Estrada to the Toronto Blue Jays for Adam Lind. With potentially two more seasons of club control, Lind is a fantastic pickup for the Brewers, especially when we consider the cost was a spot starter who gives up way too many home runs.
The Atlanta Braves, needing to improve the starting rotation, traded right fielder Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals for starting pitcher Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. It was a move precipitated by new leadership in Atlanta and the untimely passing of Oscar Taveras.
Then Hanley Ramirez was scooped up by the Boston Red Sox. In and of itself, the fact that the Red Sox signed Ramirez isn’t what impacted the free-agent market. It’s that the former shortstop is slated to play left field for manager John Farrell.
And let’s not overlook the fact that the Toronto Blue Jays acquired Josh Donaldson from the Oakland A’s the day after Thanksgiving after signing Russell Martin to a five-year, $82 million free-agent contract on Nov. 17.
The point we are trying to illustrate is that there have been several unexpected twists. True, it’s the nature of the business, but it’s wreaking havoc on the free-agent market.
The Braves were supposed to offload B.J. Upton, as David O’Brien from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution pointed out toward the end of the season, not the reigning Rawlings Defensive Player of the Year. And adding Miller, who has four more years of club control, set every second- and third-tier starting pitcher back one franchise.
The Red Sox went into the offseason needing to address the outfield. Melky Cabrera and Nick Markakis were options general manager Ben Cherington could have explored to fill the spot—Ramirez was not. At least he wasn’t supposed to be.
And didn’t the Blue Jays need to add a second baseman for next season? Sure, they sent Anthony Gose to the Detroit Tigers for Devon Travis, but Travis won’t be ready for another year. Now word from Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal is that the club is looking at Alberto Callaspo to play second, but either way, trading Lawrie along with three prospects for Donaldson seemingly came out of nowhere.
For that matter, the same can be said about the addition of Martin. After all, Dioner Navarro is under contract next season and played fairly well in 2014. Inking a catcher didn’t seem high on the list of things to accomplish.
Don’t take that the wrong way. Both moves are huge upgrades for general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ club.
It’s just that their additions (along with the others mentioned) created ripples in the market that changed the fabric of free agency. Players who thought they had an option with one club or another are finding that may not be the case.
And if you think that trades involving players like Donaldson and Heyward happen every year, think again. Sure, there are a few examples, but last offseason, the biggest move in November was the blockbuster that sent Prince Fielder and cash from the Tigers to the Texas Rangers for Ian Kinsler.
To be sure, the move paid off for the Tigers, but when the deal was made, Fielder had just put up a 2.3 fWAR, and Kinsler finished 2013 with a 2.5 fWAR. In contrast, Donaldson finished the 2014 season with a 6.4 fWAR, and Heyward compiled a 5.1 fWAR for the Braves. The difference in talent is plain to see.
The Donaldson trade also illustrates another problem.
See, the A’s were already rumored to be interested in moving starting pitching prior to the move, and with the addition of Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin, the club now “possesses no less than nine viable starters,” per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. That makes it quite likely that general manager Billy Beane will move Jeff Samardzija or Scott Kazmir, who were both mentioned by CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder.
To that end, MLB.com’s Phil Rogers opined that it’s “hard to imagine” Samardzija is still with the club next season. As Beane said in a conference call following the Donaldson deal, his club has “spent a lot of minor league capital the past couple of years,” acquiring talent for a playoff push, per USA Today’s Gabe Lacques. Trading Samardzija for prospects makes sense.
What does that mean, though, for guys like Aaron Harang and Jason Hammel?
With Samardzija and Kazmir potentially on the block, Harang’s and Hammel’s marketability has to go down. Fact is that with no less than 10 quality rotation options on the free-agent market, it was already weakened. Taking a spot away via trade depresses the market even more.
Samardzija and Kazmir are not isolated in their availability by any means.
There is an inordinate amount of talent either attainable or already dealt. In addition to the guys we’ve touched on, Justin Upton, Brandon Moss, Evan Gattis, Yoenis Cespedes, Cole Hamels, Mat Latos, Jordan Zimmermann, Matt Kemp and a host of others have been floated about in various scenarios by multiple sources.
True, most of those names are entering their final season before hitting free agency or have a large amount of money left on their deals, but that is a lot of talent. Better yet, some of them could be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next season. And with that comes a compensatory draft pick should the relationship end after one year and the player signs elsewhere.
In other words, going for it with a short-term acquisition may not be as foreboding as it once was. There is the chance of getting at least part of a lost prospect back by way of the compensatory draft pick.
Also worth noting this offseason is the way the contracts are structured.
What should jump out is that with the exception of the contract given to Yasmany Tomas, none of the free agents have signed for more than five years. And none of them have hit nine figures.
It would seem, then, that position players like Chase Headley, Nelson Cruz and Melky Cabrera can forget about signing four- or five-year contracts. Flat out, if Ramirez, who is the best pure hitter among the bunch, doesn’t get more than four guaranteed years and can’t top $90 million, Cruz can forget about getting $60 million through 2018.
The math doesn’t add up. Several players are going to sign for less money than they assumed they would because of the way the market is developing.
Now some of the remaining free agents are immune from the financial squeeze. Andrew Miller, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and David Robertson are going to sign immense contracts.
Lester and Scherzer are simply exceptional pitchers capable of being the ace on all but a few clubs. No amount of competition will prevent the two of them from signing for a king’s ransom.
Miller and Robertson are in a class unto themselves this offseason, and it’s not just about their production in 2014. Since 2012, for example, Miller has pitched to a 2.57 ERA, 1.050 WHIP and recorded 13.6 strikeouts every nine innings. Robertson has been as impressive for a longer period of time, putting up a 2.2 ERA and a 1.097 WHIP over the last four years.
Because of those stats, Miller and Robertson should approach (perhaps surpass in latter’s case) the four-year, $50 million deal given to Jonathan Papelbon by the Philadelphia Phillies in advance of the 2012 season.
By and large, however, the market is flooded with options, pushing down the amount of money front offices around MLB are willing to commit. Simply put, there won’t be any position players inking contract for more than $100 million. And let’s not forget that just last season, three players—Shin-Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury and Robinson Cano—signed new contracts well in excess of that mark.
What a difference an offseason makes.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com. Contract information pulled from Cot’s Contracts. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
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