Now that left-hander Jon Lester has signed with the Chicago Cubs, Max Scherzer is easily the No. 1 free agent remaining on the market. Heck, a strong case could be made that the right-hander, who won the 2013 American League Cy Young Award, was the top talent in free agency when the offseason began.
Combine that with the fact that Scherzer, who spent the past five years with the Detroit Tigers, is represented by agent Scott Boras, and the stud starting pitcher is in line for a massive payday.
Question is: Just how massive?
As you’ve probably heard, seen and read by now, the asking price coming out of Scherzer‘s camp is—gulp—north of $200 million, as Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported:
Sounds steep, right?
Lester, of course, just got $155 million over six years from the Cubs, or $11 million more than Scherzer rejected as an extension offer from the Tigers last March, and an amount that Scherzer should top based on his stuff as well as his status in the market.
But $200 million? As great as Scherzer is, and even factoring in that any clubs that missed out on Lester might feel a little more desperate to spend on a front-of-the-rotation star, he’s not close to $45 million better than Lester.
And given that Scherzer already is 30 and will turn 31 in late July—he’s about six months younger than Lester—the team that eventually does sign him is going to be paying for two, maybe three more above-average-to-ace seasons followed by his declining years.
In case you need a reminder, the history of players who signed nine-figure deals as free agents, especially pitchers, ain’t pretty.
Kevin Brown. Mike Hampton. Barry Zito. CC Sabathia. Cliff Lee. Zack Greinke. Masahiro Tanaka.
Cha-ching?
And for further context, since Scherzer and Boras apparently want $200 mil—or at least, that’s the price at which they’re starting the negotiations—here’s a rundown of the 10 largest pitcher contracts in baseball history.
You’ll see Lester’s $155 million smack dab in the middle of that well-paid group. But what do you also notice?
That the only pitcher to surpass—let alone sniff—a contract with a “2” followed by eight zeroes is Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Kershaw, who by age 26 has won a record four straight MLB ERA titles and three Cy Youngs in the past four seasons, became the first—and so far only—$200 million arm because he’s a freak of nature still in his prime who also happens to play for one of about five teams that can afford to spend that much on a single player.
In other words, the circumstances were just right for Kershaw to get his $215 million, even if he wasn’t yet a free agent like Scherzer is now.
So throw out the idea of $200 million for Scherzer. Ain’t happening.
That said, Scherzer is worth more to some teams than others, namely contenders, and particularly contenders that need pitching—but only contenders who also have the financial fortitude to max out on Max.
That’s simultaneously a larger cross section of clubs than you might think and a small enough subset that the price likely won’t be driven up by more than two or three teams at most.
The clubs who fit the bill include, perhaps: the Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and maybe the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs.
Detroit already has indicated it’s out of the Scherzer game, according to general manager Dave Dombrowski via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press:
The Yankees? They seem intent on not splurging this winter after forking over half a billion dollars to drop from 85 wins to 84, and they have too many 30-plus-year-olds making $150 or more (Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Jacoby Ellsbury and Sabathia).
The Red Sox still need an ace after coming up short on Lester, but they were hesitant to pay him more than $135 million, per Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com, so why would they go much higher than that for Scherzer?
The Angels are up against the luxury-tax threshold, thanks to albatross contracts they handed out to Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, just paid more than $32 million to unload Matt Kemp on the San Diego Padres, and they don’t have a pressing need for a stud starter, what with Kershaw and Zack Greinke atop the rotation.
Even for big-market contenders, the reasons to avoid giving in to Scherzer and Boras‘ $200 million demands stack up quickly. But let’s not pretend Scherzer isn’t going to get his money from some team—and a whole lot of it, too.
Going back to the top-10 pitcher contracts table above, there’s a pretty sizable gap in two places: after Kershaw ($215 million) and after Hernandez. That second range, between Sabathia’s $161 million and Hernandez’s $175 million, could be Scherzer‘s sweet spot.
The amount he signs for won’t be what’s being asked for up front, but Scherzer will top Lester. The real question, then, is whether he’ll approach Verlander and Hernandez in the $175 million-to-$180 million range.
If that happens, Scherzer and Boras may have to “settle” for being the second-highest-paid pitcher ever.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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