Zack Greinke‘s original team, the Kansas City Royals, just won a World Series, helped in no small part by his decision to talk his way out of town five years ago.
Next questions: How does Greinke win one for himself? And how do the San Francisco Giants go about keeping their every-other-year thing going, setting themselves up to win in 2016 the way they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014?
Well, stealing Greinke away from the rival Los Angeles Dodgers wouldn’t hurt. It wouldn’t hurt the Giants, and it wouldn’t hurt Greinke.
It would only hurt the Dodgers, but that’s kind of what the Giants are in business to do, isn’t it?
This World Series is over, and free agency is just about to begin. Greinke isn’t even a free agent yet, not until he goes through the formality of opting out of the final three years and $71 million of the six-year, $147 million contract he signed with the Dodgers three winters ago.
He’s going to opt out, not because he hates Dodger blue or Southern California, and certainly not because he doesn’t want $71 million. He’s going to opt out because he’s coming off an historic season and there’s absolutely no doubt he’ll get more years and more dollars from whatever team signs him.
We know the dollars are key, and not just because they always are. Greinke is maybe the most honest player ever, and when he talked to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com a few months after signing with the Dodgers, he said the money was “obviously the No. 1 thing.”
If the big-bucks Dodgers really want to keep Greinke now, it’s hard to see how the Giants could stop them. Then again, with Greinke having turned 32 in October, there’s a chance Andrew Friedman’s analytics wizards will let the numbers dictate a less-than-top-dollar final offer. They could leave the door open for San Francisco, which Heyman and others have tabbed as a possible Greinke suitor.
It makes perfect sense, for him and for them. The Giants need another top starter to pair with Madison Bumgarner, much the way the Dodgers paired Greinke with Clayton Kershaw. Greinke needs a team with the money to pay him and a roster that says “win now.”
Money may well be “the No. 1 thing” for Greinke, but we also know from his past decisions that winning matters. He pushed for a deal away from the Kansas City Royals five years ago because he was tired of losing and didn’t see things changing, and he basically nixed a trade to the Washington Nationals because he thought with what the Nationals would need to give up to get him, they wouldn’t have enough left to win.
He ended up going to the Milwaukee Brewers in a deal that worked out for everyone, but especially for the Royals. With Greinke, the Brewers came within two wins of going to the World Series for the first time since 1982. With the players they got directly or indirectly in the Greinke deal (Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain directly, Wade Davis and James Shields indirectly), the Royals have been to the World Series two straight years and just won it for the first time since 1985.
You could say Greinke was wrong when he didn’t see a chance to win with the Royals, but you could also say the Royals don’t get there without trading him. In any case, it’s hard to see how they still would have had him now, since they weren’t giving him a $147 million contract.
Regardless, what’s of greater concern now is where Greinke is going to pitch in 2016 and beyond.
The Giants would need to stretch their budget a little to make it work for them, but in this case they should. As one scout who follows the National League West closely said Monday, “There’s only one guy out there who’s a real game-changer for the Giants, and it’s Greinke. Get him, and you’re going to get [to the playoffs].”
Put Greinke with Bumgarner, and you’ve got Greinke/Kershaw but with a better supporting cast in the rotation and a better bullpen. You’ve also destroyed the rival Dodgers’ biggest strength and sent them scrambling into a free-agent market, where David Price is perhaps the only comparable starting pitcher.
You’ve changed the NL West, which is basically about the Giants and the Dodgers until one of the other three teams takes the significant steps necessary to compete.
You may even have changed baseball, because while Greinke proved to be a good postseason pitcher in his three seasons with the Dodgers, Bumgarner has already shown he’s a great one.
The Giants won the World Series three times in five years, without ever having an overwhelming team everyone thought would win. Add Greinke, and maybe they have that team as they try to make it four titles in seven years.
And if he has to beat the Royals in a World Series to do it, so much the better.
Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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