First, let’s get this out of the way: Jose Fernandez won’t come cheap, if he comes at all.
The Miami Marlins are under no obligation to trade the 23-year-old budding ace. And if they do, they’ll demand a king’s ransom.
Yet the rumors won’t go away. Fernandez has been linked to multiple potential suitors this winter, but none more than the Los Angeles Dodgers, who need a front-line starter after Zack Greinke rode off into the desert for a massive payday with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
There are roadblocks and reasons for skepticism, to be sure. But Los Angeles is one of the few clubs that could theoretically net Fernandez without completely crippling its farm system, as we’ll examine shortly.
First, a look at where things stand. The Dodgers “are staying in touch with the Marlins” about Fernandez, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported Dec. 21. At the same time, Rosenthal added, “it remains difficult to imagine the teams matching up on a trade unless Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria decides he wants Fernandez gone.”
Fernandez’s bumpy relationship with Miami’s front office and his teammates is just one part of a toxic circus in South Beach, as Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller recently detailed.
When asked if he’d like to remain a Marlin, Fernandez said he’s “not allowed to comment,” per Walter Villa of the Miami Herald. Which sounds an awful lot like thinly veiled code for, “Heck no,” or perhaps something less printable.
Again, though, Miami doesn’t have to deal him. He’s under club control for the next three years. And while his 2014 Tommy John surgery and last season’s biceps strain raise injury red flags, the 336 strikeouts and 2.40 ERA he’s tallied in 289 big league innings make him one of the most tantalizing talents in baseball.
Just the thought of him slotted next to Clayton Kershaw at the top of the rotation should leave L.A. fans drooling onto their Dodger Dogs.
So what would Los Angeles have to give up to land him? Let’s start with the haul the D-Backs surrendered to get Shelby Miller from the Atlanta Braves and go from there.
For Miller—who’s two years older than Fernandez and has a significantly lower ceiling—Arizona sacrificed shortstop and No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson, center fielder Ender Inciarte and pitching prospect Aaron Blair. The Marlins, no doubt, would demand similar pieces and more for Fernandez.
In fact, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported, before the Miller trade, the Marlins and Diamondbacks were discussing a deal that would have featured Swanson, Inciarte and Blair, plus pitcher Patrick Corbin and infielder Brandon Drury. That’s a top prospect, a secondary prospect and multiple big league-ready players.
Whew.
Could the Dodgers make that happen without hopelessly mortgaging the future? Depending on whether the Marlins are willing to play ball, the answer is a definite maybe.
Let’s start with the prospects. Infielder Corey Seager, who impressed in his MLB debut last year, should be off-limits. But Julio Urias—L.A.’s No. 2 prospect and the top left-handed pitching prospect in the game, according to MLB.com—could be an enticing centerpiece.
Urias, still just 19 years old, rose as high as Triple-A last season. Overall, he owns a 2.91 ERA and an impressive 264 strikeouts in 222.1 minor league frames.
Losing him would hurt, no question, but the Dodgers would be replacing him with a more fully developed ace. And L.A. has five more pitchers—right-handers Jose De Leon, Frankie Montas, Grant Holmes, Walker Buehler and Chris Anderson—among its top 10 prospects.
As for secondary pieces, the Dodgers could toss in speedy Micah Johnson—the fifth-best second base prospect in baseball, per MLB.com—whom they acquired in the three-team swap that sent Todd Frazier from the Cincinnati Reds to the Chicago White Sox.
And perhaps Miami would be interested in reacquiring catcher Austin Barnes, who was shipped to Los Angeles in the Dee Gordon trade last December. Barnes, the Dodgers’ No. 13 prospect, posted an .869 OPS in Triple-A and got a cup of coffee in the big leagues.
According to ESPN.com’s Mark Saxon, losing Barnes in the Gordon trade “stung most” for the Fish. Could a potential reunion sweeten the pot now?
OK, so that’s one superlative prospect, one good one and another solid chip that we know Miami likes. We’re getting warm, but we’re not there yet.
Remember, the D-Backs supposedly dangled Inciarte for Fernandez and ultimately sent him to Atlanta. The Dodgers, too, have a promising young outfielder by the name of Joc Pederson.
Yes, Pederson’s production tailed off significantly in the second half, and he finished with an anemic .210 average. But he teased huge power, blasting 26 dingers and putting on a jaw-dropping display at the Home Run Derby.
He’s also got plus speed and excellent defensive tools. And, like Fernandez, he’s just 23, meaning there’s room for growth. Just the spectacle of him and Giancarlo Stanton taking batting practice together should put butts in the seats at Marlins Park.
If the Dodgers were to move Pederson—and, to be clear, there’s no indication he’s on the block—they’d need to plug a hole in the outfield, possibly by signing a free agent in the Dexter Fowler or Denard Span mold.
A package of Pederson, Urias, Johnson, Barnes and maybe one more prospect from the bottom of L.A.’s top 20 if the Marlins demand quantity might feel like too much to jettison. And it is a lot. But the Dodgers would still be left with eight of their top 10 prospects and would retain Seager, their brightest rising star.
At the same time, that still might not be enough for Loria and Miami, who could hold out for Seager as well. If that’s the case, the Dodgers should move on, assuming they haven’t already.
Los Angeles reportedly met with Japanese ace Kenta Maeda in Southern California on Christmas Eve. And even with Greinke, David Price and Johnny Cueto off the board, there are high-upside free-agent options, including left-handers Scott Kazmir and Wei-Yin Chen.
None of those names, though, matches the potential impact of Fernandez. Maybe the Marlins truly aren’t selling for anything less than a blow-up-the-farm overpay. But the Dodgers should keep asking, and they should offer the gaudiest deal they can without going over the cliff.
Jose Fernandez won’t come cheap. If he comes, however, he’ll be a game-changer worth paying for—within some semblance of reason.
All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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