Little to nothing is guaranteed in Major League Baseball. That includes player production, and especially when you are counting on it for an extended block of time.
That is why signing free agents to huge deals for hundreds of millions of dollars—or even tens of millions—is such a risky and unpredictable proposition for all 30 front offices. The long-term mega contracts always have a realistic chance of busting. It’s the nature of people; it’s the nature of the baseball business.
But on the open market, you have to pay those uncomfortable prices, which include years and in some cases draft picks, to get the player.
This offseason’s free-agent class is rich. There is power, there is defense, there is bullpen help and there is an abundance of starting pitching, with a couple of top-tier arms, some second-level ones and even more below that. Whatever need a club might have, it can cure it for the right price.
The concern with such deals is the player staying productive long enough to live up to the contract. But every year it seems there is a small group of players who appear destined to fulfill expectations. This offseason we can pick out a handful of players on the market who seem to be bust-proof, even with long-term, relatively big-money contracts to their names.