With a 12-18 record since the calendar turned to May, the Chicago White Sox are in need of answers.
What they’ve found instead is James Shields.
A trade sending the veteran right-hander from the San Diego Padres to the south side of Chicago that had been circling the rumor mill has come to fruition. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman was first to report Saturday on an agreement that is now a done deal:
“We’re pleased to add a starter of James Shields’ caliber to our starting rotation,” White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said, per Scott Merkin of MLB.com. “We believe this move makes the entire pitching staff stronger, and the club certainly benefits from his addition, in terms of pitching depth and quality.”
There’s still the question of how the two clubs are splitting the remainder of Shields’ big-money contract. Although nothing is official yet, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports the Padres and White Sox are basically splitting it down the middle:
Without even a hint of doubt, the biggest winner of this deal is Shields. At 29-26 coming into Saturday, the White Sox are still contenders in the AL Central even despite their recent struggles. In joining them, Shields is escaping a Padres team headed by a guy who just threw him under the bus.
“To have a starter like Shields perform as poorly as he did yesterday is an embarrassment to the team, an embarrassment to him,” Padres chairman Ron Fowler said in a radio interview after the Seattle Mariners shelled Shields for 10 earned runs Tuesday, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.
Fowler also referred to his whole team as “miserable failures.” At 22-34 and in last place in the NL West, he at least has that part right.
For their part, the fact they’re keeping shortstop Tim Anderson, right-hander Carson Fulmer and their other top prospects while only paying half of Shields’ remaining contract means the White Sox aren’t risking much in this deal. Which is a good thing, because the pitcher they’re getting is clearly past his prime.
With a 3.76 career ERA and nine straight 200-inning seasons under his belt, Shields still boasts impressive credentials. But the 34-year-old hit a snag with a 3.91 ERA in his first season in San Diego last year, and he is working on a 4.28 ERA through 11 starts this season.
His bomb against the Mariners didn’t help, of course. Before that, his ERA was a respectable 3.06. As Rosenthal noted, Shields was doing things to earn that.
“His ground-ball percentage is the 38th-highest out of the 103 pitchers who have thrown a minimum of one inning per team game, according to STATS LLC,” Rosenthal wrote. “His home run rate, tied for the 47th-lowest, is also better than league average.”
These were facts, and they allow for a bit of optimism about how Shields will fit in Chicago. A high ground-ball rate and a low home run rate are good things that become even better things with a good defense. Per Baseball Prospectus, the difference between the Padres and White Sox is that of a bottom-11 defense and a top-eight defense.
However, Shields’ shellacking at the hands bats of the Mariners was probably inevitable. His ratio of 2.43 strikeouts to one walk through 10 starts was a bit worse than the league average for starting pitchers in 2016. He also wasn’t especially good at inducing soft contact or limiting hard contact on balls in play:
- Shields’ First 10 GS: 15.8 Soft%, 31.0 Hard%
- 2016 MLB Starters: 19.0 Soft%, 30.9 Hard%
The two homers Shields surrendered against the Mariners upped his home run rate over the last two seasons to 1.4 per nine innings. That’s worse than the two-year average of 1.1 for starting pitchers. As Eno Sarris of FanGraphs quipped, that doesn’t bode well for a guy who is about to move from roomy Petco Park to less roomy U.S. Cellular Field:
White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper is one of the best in the business, but it won’t be easy to solve this problem.
It’s no secret that Shields’ velocity has come back down to earth after peaking between 2012 and 2014. His fastball sat in the 92-93 mph range in those three seasons, and his cutter topped out in the 89-90 mph range. In 2016, his fastball is 90-91, and his cutter is 86-87.
They say velocity isn’t everything, but Shields’ last two seasons prove it helps. As Baseball Savant can vouch, less velocity has meant higher slugging percentages against his heat:
At Shields’ age, it’s pointless to entertain the idea of his velocity being rejuvenated by his move to Chicago. It’s still going to be an Achilles’ heel. And because he’ll now be pitching half his games at U.S. Cellular Field rather than Petco Park, it could hurt him even more.
This is not to say the trade will be a complete waste for the White Sox. Shields should at least be a good innings-eater for them. Considering their bullpen has hit the skids over the last month, they could use a guy like that.
But relative to the White Sox’s biggest needs, that’s not a big fix.
Shields doesn’t figure to be the reliable No. 3 Chicago has been missing behind stud left-handers Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. He’s also not going to solve what’s ailing the offense. The White Sox rank 10th in the American League in runs scored and 14th in OPS. It’s a wonder the White Sox didn’t try to make a move for an impact bat instead of Shields.
With the Minnesota Twins (16-38) far back in the chase and the Detroit Tigers (27-28) still struggling to find their footing, the Shields trade shouldn’t result in the White Sox losing any ground in the AL Central. But with the Kansas City Royals (30-24) and Cleveland Indians (29-24) playing great baseball, it’s unlikely to help them gain ground either.
The White Sox did well to land Shields without risking much. But in this case, that doesn’t entitle them to a reward.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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