Jonathan Papelbon is gearing up for his sixth season as closer for the Boston Red Sox. The upcoming year will be the third straight that Papelbon has pitched on a one-year contract. Next fall, Papelbon will become a free agent for the first time in his career, and will presumably seek a long-term deal with a per annum rate of at least $10 million.
Given the team’s fiscal wariness, given Papelbon’s personal desires, given that Daniel Bard is waiting in the wings and given that the Red Sox are trying to add some late-inning depth to their bullpen, the following question becomes honestly legitimate: Will the Red Sox trade Jonathan Papelbon?
Before I answer that question, let’s size up Mr. Papelbon. “Paps” has long been a fan favorite in Boston, and he has never recorded fewer than 35 saves over the course of his career. He is a four-time all-star and a World Series champion. For all of his success though, the Red Sox, as I hinted at in the previous paragraph, are at a crossroads with their 30-year-old star reliever.
It all comes back to the man’s fastball. Papelbon’s success, thus far, has been tied to the pitch: A mid-to high-90’s four-seamer with decent late movement, both horizontally and vertically. Over the past two seasons, Papelbon has lost a little of the zip on his fastball, and, in what is perhaps a related development, he has thrown more splitters and sliders in the hopes of having hitters create swinging strikes with balls out of the zone. (Check out his charts on FanGraphs).
The results have been mixed. 2009 and 2010 were departures from the sterling efficiency that characterized Papelbon’s first three years as Boston’s closer. Papelbon issued 24 walks in 2009 and 28 last season. As a comparison, his season totals from 2005-2008 were 17, 13, 15, and eight. In 2009, Papelbon seemed to get away with his mistakes: He shaved half a run of his season ERA from 2008 even though his WHIP rose from 0.95 to 1.15.
In 2010, however, Papelbon’s control issues and inability to get through the ninth inning efficiently began to statistically show. His eight blown saves last year were a career high, as were his 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. As a comparison, Paplebon’s career numbers in those same categories are 2.22 and 1.03, respectively.
Papelbon has, however, been wise to reinvent himself as a pitcher, if that is indeed what he has been attempting, with his increased use of his splitter and slider and his decreased use of a definitively slower fastball. If he is able to develop even just one of those pitches in a true “plus pitch,” to use the parlance of scouting, Papelbon will continue to find success at the Major League level. Cutting down on those walks wouldn’t hurt, either.
But returning to the question central to this article: Will Boston trade Jonathan Papelbon? The answer, I am inclined to think, is no.
Boston will certainly not trade Papelbon over the winter, at any rate. With his off year in 2010, Papelbon’s trade value is low right now. A much more likely trade scenario would be for Paps to be dealt at the July trade deadline, when the demands for relief pitching is high and teams on the fringe of contention are looking to plug their gaps and make a push for October. (Milwaukee trading for CC Sabathia in July 2008 is a prime example of such a trend, albeit for starting pitching.)
However, Papelbon’s trade-ability also rests on his 2011 performance. If he is able to pitch closer to his career averages next season, not only would it make little sense for Boston to trade away a productive closer, it would up the level of offer which Boston would be willing to listen to. A strong 2011 would all but insure that Papelbon will be classified as a Type A free agent next winter. If the Red Sox, as expected, do offer Papelbon arbitration next year (before he of course refuses it to become a free agent and get paid like a king) then the team will receive two draft picks from the team that does sign Papelbon. A trade during the 2011 season for a Papelbon who is pitching well would have to either trump those two draft picks or dramatically resolve a possible weakness of the 2011 team. An offer involving a good young catcher, however, would probably pique the interest of Boston GM Theo Epstein, who does not appear ready to toss all of his eggs into one basket with Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
For all intents and purposes however, Papelbon is likely done in Boston after 2011, regardless of how he fares next season. I doubt the Sox will hear a trade offer they like, but I can’t imagine Papelbon accepting arbitration next winter with the avenue of free agency becoming available to him for the first time.
The Red Sox won’t extend Papelbon a serious long-term offer because they are confident in the abilities of Daniel Bard, the 25-year-old fireballer who has all but been officially named heir-apparent to Papelbon. Bard has pitched excellently as a set-up man ever since being called up the majors in May 2009. Bard sports a high-90’s four-seamer that he mixes in with a half-decent low-80’s slider and high-70’s slurve. He still has his control issues, but Bard seems to have all of the right tools, the right mindset and the durability to be a closer worthy of filling the shoes that Papelbon seems poised to leave.
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