In the modern age of baseball, there are two types of teams when it comes to the offseason. Those looking to make an immediate run to the World Series, and those willing to offload talent to get a jump-start on a rebuild.
After finishing last in their division in 2014, it’s pretty obvious that the Philadelphia Phillies are in the latter category. As such, they have been in discussions to trade some of their biggest names this year. One of those names is closer Jonathan Papelbon.
But while the trade makes sense for the Phillies, who are getting rid of a decent-sized contract with the name recognition of Papelbon, the team that seems to be in pole position to pick up the 34-year-old might surprise a few.
According to ESPN, the Phillies are having discussions with the Milwaukee Brewers about trading the closer.
Right now, it seems like Papelbon could be a positive addition to the Brewers, who finished six games out of a postseason spot last season. The former Red Sox pitcher has been a star his whole career and tallied 39 saves with an ERA of 2.04 in 2014.
The Brewers’ closer from last season, Francisco Rodriguez, is also a free agent this offseason, and although the club has shown interest in resigning K-Rod, the Papelbon rumor seems to dispel that.
Milwaukee has already expressed interest in adding some late-inning relief, and it has the money to bring Papelbon in after trading starter Yovani Gallardo to the Texas Rangers for three minor leaguers.
If Papelbon is worth just those six extra wins that would see the Brewers jump into the postseason, he might be worth it this year, but he comes with some serious baggage.
Following an incident in September in which Papelbon grabbed his crotch after a blown save, he was suspended for seven games. A potential attitude problem isn’t the biggest concern for the Brewers, though.
Despite posting a good ERA last year, it has been noted that Papelbon has been struggling, with his average fastball speeds decreasing and his strikeout rate declining. He also posted incredibly low numbers in batting average and home runs compared to his career numbers, so odds are those will go back up.
As I mentioned earlier in the piece, Papelbon is 34 years old. Although players can sometimes extend their careers into their 40s, especially closers, Papelbon is unlikely to improve. Things can only go downhill.
Papelbon is heading into his 10th season as a closer, and he reached his peak as an athlete several years ago. If his two seasons in Philadelphia are any sign of things to come, it will be a slow, steady, decline for the closer.
If this trade is to go through, though, what really decides where the Brewers come out is what they give up for Papelbon. If some money and a minor leaguer are the price for the closer, then the deal wouldn’t be too detrimental.
But if Milwaukee gives up a starter or quality prospect, it wouldn’t appear to be worth it.
Papelbon seems to be nothing more than a short-term fix for the Brewers to get over the hump and into the postseason, and they shouldn’t spend too much on someone who isn’t even sure to improve their roster.
At the end of the day, the trade for Papelbon could be nothing more than noise for the franchise as they try to move up in the NL Central.
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